A favorite quote of Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is that in life “you have to take your risks”. He did it, and rose out of nowhere to lead France at the age of 39. Now, six years later, he has decided to risk his political future to reshape France at the very moment it did. This is the hardest to change.
Mr. Macron wars of words on the streets of France plan to increase legal retirement age to 64 from 62 is expected to culminate this week in a decisive vote in both houses of Congress on Thursday. A day earlier, if the past few weeks were any guidance, the president could expect more than a million French citizens to protest across the country, hoping to push back against change.
In his drive to reform France’s pension system, Mr. Macron took on fierce French resistance to a world of unbridled capitalism, the nation’s deep attachment to the union social cohesion and the prevailing view that a long and painful labor sentence is only compensated by the freedom reward of a pensioner’s life. That is a big gamble.
“Every country has a soul and the soul of France is equality,” said François Hollande, Macron’s predecessor. Profit remains questionable for many French, who see it as a hoax by the rich. 1.28 million won protesters in the streets of France last week – 3.5 million people follow labor unions – there was a clear message for Mr. Macron: “Do less to live more,” as one slogan put it.
Mr Macron, 45, appeared unwavering, adamant in his belief that change is essential to France’s economic health because workers today have to pay pensions for a number of days. more retirees, who live longer. If France invests in the transition to a green economy and defense at a time of war in Europe, then in Mr. Macron’s view, the country cannot pile up a fiscal deficit for retirement that reflects shorter lifespan of a bygone era.
“It’s simple,” Macron said last year. “If we don’t solve the retiree problem, we can’t invest for everyone else. It is nothing more than the choice of society that we want.”
That may make sense, but the source of sympathy Mr. Macron could once rely on has evaporated. The bottom line of his second term, still less than a year old and accompanied by a sense of drift until now, seems imminent.
He was re-elected last year as a bulwark against Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, more than anything else. Wunderkind of Europe is injured. To some extent, he is vulnerable. However, he emphasizes, in the fanciful style he often portrays, about the most difficult changes at a time when 40% of French families say they struggle to make ends meet.
“It’s a matter of his DNA,” said Clément Beaune, a government minister who knows Mr Macron well. “As a former economy minister, he wants a solid and growing France in the heart of Europe. When asked about the most important legacy of his first term, he always said cutting the unemployment rate.”
Unemployment has fallen to just over 7%, a low for France, from 9.5% when Mr. Macron took office in 2017, reflecting his sweeping changes to free up the labor market. , which has helped attract increased foreign investment.
However, the expansion of the workforce did not make the French heart beat faster. They skipped six days of strikes and protests in the past two months. The protests have been accompanied by a wave of sympathy. Polls show that at least two-thirds of French people do not want to raise the retirement age.
Solidarity Fund to Support Unpaid Strikers Labor unions from the far left to the center have acted with unusual unity. They have attacked Mr. Macron’s relative silence as “a serious democratic issue that inevitably leads to an explosive situation”, as they stated in a letter to Mr. Macron last week.
How explosive will be revealed in the next few days.
Mr. Macron’s mixed moderate political party, the Renaissance – formerly known as La République en Marche – with the backing of centre-right Republicans, should have prevailed, but support appears to be faltering action and results are not clear. Renaissance holds 260 seats and Republicans 61, with the 289 votes needed for a majority.
“Passed reform is not a certainty,” said Alain Duhamel, an author and political commentator. “A month ago, I said that 80 percent of it would pass; Now I would say 60 percent. Macron took a risky gamble. Its logic is obvious, but not urgent.”
For Mr. Macron, who favors far-reaching ideas, the urgency seems to lie precisely in logic. France is an extreme exception. The retirement age in Europe has generally risen above 65. In Germany it is 65 years and 7 months. In Italy, the ratio is 67. In the Netherlands it will increase to 67 next year and in Spain to 67 in 2027. However, because France sees itself as a role model, it has tend to be unimpressive with these comparisons.
For Mr. Macron, France must compete; he believes it cannot be lame by outdated regulations. Mr. Duhamel said: “His core value or belief is work. “Work harder to grow up.”
But Mr. Macron’s message or narrative on pension reform has made it difficult for many French to follow through. At different times it was about justice, about difficult public finances, even about completing a leftist program.
“The pension reform is a reform of the left,” Olivier Dussopt, France’s minister of labor, employment and economic integration, told French daily Le Parisien. “It could have been promoted by a Social Democratic government.”
This happened in Germany two decades ago, under the Social Democratic chancellor Gerhard Schröder. It doesn’t happen in France.
Mr. Macron emerged from the Socialist Party only to break it. He has proven to have economic ideas commonly associated with the right in France, a source of some of the fury often directed at him.
However, what exactly “Macroism” is, aside from the right to change your mind and the movement to take over the entire political middle ground, remains a mystery. But on pension reform, as well as his commitment to the European Union, he is unwavering.
Without parliamentary approval, the government can use Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which is used to pass legislation without a vote. But for an issue of such magnitude and contentiousness, this would almost certainly show contempt for the democratic process and could bolster accusations against Mr. way, from top to bottom.
Marylise Léon, deputy leader of the French Democratic Labor Federation, the largest and most moderate union in France, told Le Monde daily: “What is happening today is huge. “Mr. Macron can’t behave as if the movement doesn’t exist. That’s crazy.”
Mr. Macron has refused to meet with union leaders, saying the government is open to dialogue.
He appears to be adopting a position not uncommon for presidents under the Fifth Republic – setting broad policy lines while leaving it to Élisabeth Borne, prime minister, to lead the hard work. towel is through the law.
However, if anything, the policy has made the president look more isolated. His inner circle was tight, dominated by his wife, Brigitte, who was fiercely protective, and by Alexis Kohler, general secretary of the Élysée Palace and strong supporter of the overhaul, who was by his side. president since Mr. Macron became president. economic minister in 2014.
Inevitably, with Mr Macron limited to two terms, his legacy has begun to grow enormous.
His commitment to a strong Europe with greater “strategic autonomy” remains central, and he clearly believes that only a modernized France with a balanced budget can invest. Deep investments in education, technological innovation, industrial independence, renewable energy, the armed forces and nuclear power can lead that thrust.
In this sense, the pension change is part of Mr Macron’s broader European ambitions.
If he can push through with reforms, Mr. Macron will certainly continue to implement social compensation measures, including efforts to improve working conditions and expand on-the-job training. Mr Beaune, the ministerial delegate in charge of transport, described the core idea as “doing more but being more efficient”.
Whether this will be enough, if the law is passed, to heal the rift that has opened in France over pension reform remains unclear. Much will depend on such healing, for a France at war with itself will likely benefit the political extremes of the left and the right.
“Macron’s obsession is that Le Pen doesn’t succeed him,” Mr. Beaune said. “Because if she does, that’s what people will remember.”
