The thirty eighth Breeders’ Cup World Championships is within the books and, though the racing calendar by the remainder of 2021 will probably be much less stocked with big-time races than the previous 10 months, it’s solely a quick respite earlier than motion picks again up and the main target of householders, trainers, jockeys, horseplayers, followers, and everybody else shifts to the horse racing’s marquee occasion on the primary Saturday in Could.
The street to the 2022 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will, because it all the time does, take loads of sudden twists and turns as contenders rise and fall with every passing prep race. Forecasting the 20-horse subject – and even taking an early stand on a possible winner backed by a future wager – is an annual spotlight of Derby season, and the bookmakers at William Hill are taking fixed-odds future wagers on Derby 148, which will probably be held at historic Churchill Downs on Could 7, 2022.
As in years previous, on this weblog we’ll take a periodic take a look at William Hill’s future-book odds for the Kentucky Derby and profile among the contenders. (Churchill Downs’ first of five Future Wager pools for Derby 148 will probably be held from Nov. 25-28.)
Nov. 7 William Hill Odds Leaders to Win the 2022 Kentucky Derby:
1. Corniche (6-1)
2. Jack Christopher (20-1)
3. Rattle N Roll (30-1)
3. Commandperformance (30-1)
5. Messier (35-1)
5. Pappacap (35-1)
5. Profitable Map (35-1)
The leaders:
Corniche: Speak about a state of limbo. This colt is sitting at 6-1 odds on the most recent William Hill e-book regardless of having zero qualifying factors for the Derby. Bob Baffert is at the moment banned from taking part in each the 2022 and the 2023 Kentucky Derbys after his 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit examined constructive for a corticosteroid that’s banned on raceday in Kentucky. Whether or not Medina Spirit will probably be eliminated because the winner of Derby 147 is a course of that has taken almost six months, and it appears destined to take longer nonetheless because the Kentucky Horse Racing Fee has but to subject a ruling and Baffert is sort of sure to attraction any DQ. However Churchill Downs has already acted, which signifies that any horse skilled by Baffert gained’t be allowed to run in subsequent 12 months’s Derby, and any Baffert-managed horse that finishes within the high 4 in a Derby prep gained’t accrue any factors. (That also needs to imply that Corniche will probably be absent from Churchill Downs’ first Future Wager pool developing in about 2 ½ weeks.)
If he had been skilled by anybody not named Bob Baffert, Corniche would have already got 30 Derby factors from his win within the American Pharoah Stakes on Oct. 1 and final Friday’s front-running rating within the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. He’s a legit Derby contender based mostly on his plentiful expertise and stable pedigree as a son of excellent, younger sire High quality Street out of a dam, Wasted Tears, who almost gained 1,000,000 {dollars} and took down six graded stakes races on turf. However reserving 6-1 odds at this stage, even in the event you put aside Baffert’s persona-non-grata standing at 700 Central Ave., can be a rash choice to say the least. Corniche should get a brand new coach some level to get to the Derby, in all probability by early January to be protected, and his co-owner Peter Fluor didn’t appear to be in any hurry to make that robust choice in his post-Breeders’ Cup interviews.
Commandperformance: With Jack Christopher and Rattle N Roll at the moment sidelined (each missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with accidents), we’ll transfer on to this bodily putting grey or roan son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. He stalked Corniche’s tempo within the Juvenile whereas three- and four-wide by the backstretch and momentarily appeared able to make a bid for rivalry halfway by the far flip, however he lacked any closing punch on the high of the lane and as an alternative grinded out a fourth-place end. In doing so, he mainly repeated the efforts from his first two profession begins – a closing second in his debut going six furlongs within the mud at Saratoga after which a keen, however nonthreatening runner-up end to Jack Christopher within the one-turn-mile Champagne Stakes Oct. 2 at Belmont Park. This Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable cost is out of a stakes-placed Tapit mare and may have the stamina to enhance because the races get longer, however his Equibase Pace Determine dropped from 100 within the Champagne to 89 within the Juvenile, which isn’t encouraging – particularly in the event you’re getting 30-1 odds to win the 2022 Derby. He’s nonetheless considered one of a number of to observe skilled by Todd Pletcher.
Pappacap: This son of red-hot freshman sire Gun Runner gave an excellent effort by the stretch within the Juvenile and was rewarded together with his second consecutive runner-up end behind Corniche after the Superior Once more. His solely subpar race in 5 profession begins got here within the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, which adopted two wins in sprints, together with the Greatest Pal Stakes. In truth, that fourth-place effort wasn’t that dangerous. Pappacap earned a career-best 95 Equibase Pace Determine within the Juvenile. The Florida-bred should maintain bettering, clearly, to hitch the highest tier of Derby horses because the weeks and months move, however his pedigree ought to assist him journey longer distances as his dam was graded stakes-placed at a mile and an eighth and he’s obtained some stamina additional again in his maternal bloodline (he’s associated to a champion stayer, which implies long-distance runner in horse lingo, who raced in Peru).
Messier and Profitable Map: Listed below are two extra Bob Baffert trainees, so what was written above about Corniche with regard to qualifying for the Derby applies to them as nicely. They’ve each turned heads in California over the previous six weeks with sharp efforts that netted high-90s Equibase Pace Figures: Messier got here again from a runner-up end in his maiden race again in June to dominate by 6 ½ lengths in a three-quarter-mile dash at Santa Anita Park Oct. 22; and Profitable Map gained first out by 4 ¼ lengths at Santa Anita, additionally going six furlongs, on Oct. 3. Messier is an Empire Maker colt with maternal bloodlines that run north of the border, the place his namesake first excelled on the ice. His dam, the Good Strike mare Checkered Previous, gained the 1 1/16-mile Trillium Stakes at Woodbine twice and he’s associated to 2 Canadian champions a bit additional down the web page. Profitable Map is a son of Breeders’ Cup Filth Mile winner Liam’s Map, and his dam was a stakes-placed sprinter by Discreetly Mine. A whiff of stamina may be detected deeper in his pedigree, as he’s a relation to millionaire Wanderin Boy, who completed second to champion Bernardini and two years later to Corridor of Famer Curlin and within the 1 ¼-mile Jockey Membership Gold Cup throughout the late 2000s.
Three to observe:
Howling Time: This Dale Romans-trained colt from the second crop of Not This Outing of the profitable Arch mare Werewolf missed Churchill Downs’ first Derby factors prep, the Iroquois Stakes; in actual fact, he debuted every week later below the Twin Spires on Sept. 25. Howling Time rallied from off the tempo to win that six-furlong maiden by 1 ½ lengths and seemed to be craving additional distance the best way Lon Chaney Jr. craved a full moon. He obtained each the additional distance and an oh-so-suitable race date for his subsequent begin, the 1 1/16-mile Avenue Sense Stakes on Halloween, and he sat nearer to the tempo this time below a assured Joe Talamo earlier than separating from the sphere in early stretch and drawing off in midstretch to a 3 ¼-length victory. Not This Time is off to a stable begin as a stallion and Werewolf’s two wins got here at about 1 mile and 70 yards on an artificial essential observe after which at 1 3/16 miles on turf. Howling Time associated to Desert Occasion, who gained the Gulf Information U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas and completed second within the U.A.E. Derby in 2009 for Godolphin earlier than operating 14th within the Kentucky Derby. Search for Howling Time to make his subsequent begin within the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes two days after Thanksgiving on Nov. 27. He’s 2-for-2 on the Derby host’s essential observe and is at the moment supplied at 100-1 odds by William Hill.
Varatti: One other Pletcher horse, Varatti made his debut Sept. 30 at Belmont Park a profitable one, contesting the tempo in a 6 ½-furlong maiden and opening up within the stretch to win by 4 ½ lengths. He’s owned by WinStar Farm and his breeder, Siena Farm, and is a son of Into Mischief, the favored stallion who’s nicely on his strategy to main all North American sires by each winners and progeny earnings for the third consecutive 12 months. Varatti’s dam, the Empire Maker mare Artemis, gained at a mile and was runner-up in a Grade 3 stakes at 1 1/16 miles. Dig deeper into his feminine household tree and issues get attention-grabbing; Varatti is said to a number of top-class horses, together with third dam (maternal great-grandmother) La Gueriere, a Grade 1 winner on turf at 1 1/8 miles who produced Private Ensign Stakes winner Icon Mission and likewise the dam of a number of Grade 2 winner and good younger sire Munnings. It is going to be attention-grabbing to see whether or not Pletcher begins this proficient colt in an allowance race subsequent or elevates him to stakes competitors; I’m betting the previous. He’s sitting at 100-1 odds on William Hill’s newest sheet.
Graphic Element: One other promising Belmont debut winner, this Sensible Joke colt gained the primary race at “Large Sandy” on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, capitalizing on a tempo duel between two pace horses to rally late and defeat Triple Elvis (a well-bred Chad Brown-trained colt who had misplaced to Varatti in that colt’s debut) by a half-length. Graphic Element earned a good, however not spectacular 86 Equibase Pace Determine in that race and admittedly picked up the items, and his dam, the Dixie Union mare Bayou Miss, was a sprinter, Nonetheless, he’s nicely price holding tabs on going ahead, particularly contemplating he’s skilled by the ultra-patient and educated Bill Mott. He debuts on William Hill’s Nov. 7 sheet at odds of 150-1.
