By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Two weeks after the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) ended with an exciting three-horse race, the Triple Crown moves to Pimlico for the 149th Preakness (G1).
Unlike the Derby which had a full field of 20 starters, the Preakness is expected to finish with eight players. Nine horses entered but the favorite line was bright #4 Muth (8-5) scratched due to fever.
Muth’s scratch removed the threat of a major win from the field and changed the complexion of the 1 3/16-mile race. Muth is a speed horse who could have set the pace. Now that he is no longer fit, the pace will be modest — perhaps even slow — which could affect some opponents. Likely included #5 Mystik Dan (5-2), winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Mystik Dan doesn’t completely lack initial speed. On the contrary, he set or forced the pace in three of his first four starts. But he has improved a lot since switching to rally tactics. He edged the midfield while saving position on the yellow rail in the Southwest (G3) before shooting inside to prevail by eight lengths. He then produced another perfect inside trip to finish from eighth place and win the Kentucky Derby by a three-length finish.
Mystik Dan won’t have any trouble securing the rails in the Preakness, with three taut runners pulled inside him. But if he heads toward the tracks, he may find himself pinned back at a slow pace with nowhere to run. Even if he finds a turn for home, as he did in the Southwestern and Kentucky Derby, taking the still-newly established leaders or forcing a slow pace can be difficult towel.
Louisiana Derby (G2) Winner #3 Seize freedom (6-1), who closed from 15th to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby, could find himself facing similar problems from a speed perspective. Long shot #1 Mugatu (January 20) and #2 Uncle is heavy (20-1) also finds it difficult to find the pace appealing.
That’s why I will support a horse with tactical pace, one that can stick to the slow pace and benefit. I was thinking of picking the winner of the San Felipe (G2) and the runner-up of the Santa Anita Derby (G1). #9 Imagination (6-1), whose trainer—Bob Baffert—has won the Preakness a record eight times. For me, Imagination is shaping up to be the most likely Preakness frontrunner and I believe he will prove tough to pin down in the final round.
But instead, I’ll take sides #8 Tuscan Gold (8-1), the lightest racehorse in the field with just three starts. While not an obvious speed horse at first glance, Tuscan Gold should have enough tact to make a smooth ride in the Preakness and I predict he will deliver his best performance in the competition. career in his toughest test to date.
Tuscan Gold debuted in the one-mile debut special at Aqueduct last fall and endured a rough start that left him in last place early. Despite this handicap, Tuscan Gold made a nice move midway through the race before finishing fourth, beaten by future Blue Grass (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone defeat 3 1/4 lengths.
Nearly three months later, Tuscan Gold made his two-length debut in the 1 1/16-mile maiden special at Gulfstream Park, in which he rallied from four slower-paced starts to dominate 6 1/4 length. After this flashy victory, Tuscan Gold moved up strongly in the 1 3/16 mile Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier that attracted a deep field.
In the Louisiana Derby, Tuscan Gold showed improved tactical speed. He was never slower than 2 1/4 pace and ran in third place for most of the journey. He came through in the thick of things at home and eventually finished third by 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Catching Freedom and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Honor Marie. Coming home after Tuscan Gold were a number of talented runners, including Track Phantom, winner Lecomte (G3) and the next Peter Pan (G3) hero, Antiquarian.
I like the fact that Tuscan Gold was placed on the Grand Road to Kentucky Derby qualifier before skipping the Kentucky Derby and targeting the Preakness. Trainer Chad Brown previously used this method with Preakness winners Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022), as well as with Blazing Sevens, who was hit in the head while finishing second in the 2023 Preakness . All three of those colts improved significantly in the Preakness and all three offer attractive betting odds—Cloud at 11-1, Early Voting starts at 5-1 and Blazing Sevens. started with a score of 9-2.
Tuscan Gold has improved his Beyer Speed Index significantly with each start, climbing from 65 to 84 to 95. Taking another step forward could put him in the hunt for victory under jockey Tyler Gaffalione , who won the 2019 Preakness aboard War of Will. I envision Tuscan Gold racing in third or fourth soon, a few lengths off the lead while staying clear of traffic on the outside. From there, he could launch a winning rally at attractive odds.
This brings me to another horse that can benefit from moderate speed: #7 Just steel (15-1), who faded to finish 17th in the Kentucky Derby after dueling for the lead in fast :22.97 and :46.63.
If you look at the Kentucky Derby chart, you’ll see a slow-paced race. The top three, including 3-1 favorite Fierceness, faded to 11th, 15th and 17th. Mystik Dan, eighth to finish early, was the only horse in the half front of the field recorded a top-five finish. The next four horses to finish finished 18th, 16th, 15th and 17th at the first call.
Before the Kentucky Derby, Just Steel was adjudged to be two lengths off the early lead in the Arkansas Derby (G1) before going on to finish second behind Muth. Coming home 4 1/4 lengths behind Just Steel in third was Mystik Dan, who endured a wide ride that day and was unable to shoot his best shot.
Just Steel and Mystik Dan have met four times. In the Southwest, Just Steel raced well beyond the boundaries of the inside-biased track and finished second behind Mystik Dan. But when Mystik Dan applied the pace strategy in the Smarty Jones S., he faded to finish fifth, three-quarters of a length behind runner-up Just Steel.
In other words, Just Steel defeated Mystik Dan in 2 out of 4 meetings. If Just Steel sets a modest pace in the Preakness, I can envision a scenario in which he starts to pull ahead and outpaces expectations by double-digit odds, finishing close or even before Mystik Dan depending on the type of ride of the Kentucky Derby the winner will be successful.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Preakness 149?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, videographer, voice actor, paraplegic, and all-round horse racing enthusiast. A big fan of racing history, he considered Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but considered Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
