In an instant Israel and its allies shot down a series of missiles Iranian missiles and drones This weekend, many people began to wonder what the latest exchange between Israel and Iran meant for them war in the Gaza Strip.
Iran’s attack was retaliation for what was widely believed to be an attack an Israeli attack this month about the embassy building in Damascus, killing seven Iranian officials, including three top commanders of Iran’s armed forces. But it comes against the backdrop of the war in Gaza, where Israel is fighting Hamas, a militant group funded and armed by Iran.
Israeli military analysts are divided over whether a more direct confrontation with Iran would change the war in Gaza, now in its sixth month. The next fulcrum in that fight could hinge on whether Israel decides to go after Hamas. the southern city of Rafahwhere more than a million Palestinians have fled amid a growing humanitarian crisis.
Some analysts say the implications for Gaza will depend on whether Israel responds with a major counterattack against Iran. Others say Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip will not be affected.
Shlomo Brom, a retired major general and former director of the Israeli army’s strategic planning department, said that if Israel responded with significant force to Iran’s attack, it could provoke a The multi-faceted war caused the Israeli leadership to turn their attention away from this issue. Gaza.
General Brom said that in the event of a serious conflict in the region, Israel could choose to delay plans to invade Rafah, which Israeli officials describe as the last stronghold of Hamas.
General Brom added: “It is uncomfortable that we have to have simultaneous, high-intensity wars in many battlefields.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would send ground forces to Rafah, despite international pressure to stop the operation. On Sunday, an Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the Iranian strike would have no impact on the military’s plans to invade Rafah.
General Brom said that a large-scale direct confrontation with Iran could end the war in Gaza. But for the war to end in such a way, there would need to be a broader ceasefire involving many parties, including Israel, Iran and the Iranian-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
“There is an opinion that to resolve the crisis, the situation first needs to get worse,” he said, explaining that the escalation was followed by a comprehensive ceasefire with Iran could prompt that country to push its regional proxies to stop fighting Iran. Israeli.
While members of Israel’s war cabinet made no official statement after Sunday’s meeting, a separate Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks, indicated that it would respond to Iran’s attack – despite significant opposition. Uncertainty about when and how.
However, other military experts have dismissed a link between Iran’s attack and the war in Gaza.
“There is no connection,” said Amos Gilead, a retired major general who served in Israel’s military intelligence agency.
General Gilead believes that the Israeli Army has enough resources to fight against Iran and continue to wage war against Hamas in Gaza.
Other analysts have made similar points, arguing that the resources needed to counter Iran are different from those needed in Gaza. They said Israel needs fighter jets and air defense systems to fight Iran. On the contrary, they added, the army mainly requires infantry, drones and attack helicopters to fight Hamas in Gaza.
“There is no real tension between the two,” said Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel’s National Security Council.
However, General Eiland said that the success of the coalition repelling Iran’s attack, including the US, UK and Jordan, could inspire Israel to take advantage of the momentum to overcome its declining position on the battlefield. internationally by ending the war in Gaza.
Although the United States, Israel’s closest ally, has broadly supported Israel’s decision to wage war in Gaza, it has increasingly expressed displeasure at the rising death toll and warned of a major ground offensive in Rafah. The support the United States provided to Israel on Sunday in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles could give it more leverage over its Israeli partners.
While General Eiland said such an outcome could help Israel develop goodwill in the international community and contribute to reaching a solution to end the war in Gaza and the fighting with Hezbollah, the militia was Iran-backed in Lebanon, he remains skeptical that Netanyahu will do so. for such a road.
“He said he wants to achieve ‘total victory’ in Gaza and conquer Rafah, a process that could take two or three months,” he said, referring to the prime minister. “Clearly Netanyahu has different mindsets and priorities.”
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