Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, seen from the city of Ashkelon, Israel October 9, 2023.
Amir Cohen | Reuters
Israel has vowed to ” exact a price ” from Iran in retaliation for this weekend’s massive aerial attack on the Jewish state – while some analysts expect Israel to respond, when and The extent of that retaliation remains in question.
Iran launches more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets inside Israel on Saturday, in what President Joe Biden described as “never happend.”
“Right now, they are definitely seriously considering a direct attack on Iran, because that is the clearest path back to deterrence.”
However, he noted that Israel would need to strike a delicate balance and emphasized that “it does not want an open conflict with Iran”.
The less risky tactic is “covert escalation,” in which the Israelis would “find ways in which they can bring their shadow war back into the shadows with greater intensity,” Bohl told CNBC.Squawk Box Asia” in Monday.
While Biden has pledged an “ironclad” commitment. regarding Israel’s security against Iranian threats, he also made clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not engage in any offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official said. told NBC News.
Before the war cabinet meeting on Sunday, Israeli centrist Minister Benny Gantz declared to “build a regional coalition and exact costs from Iran in a manner and time that suits us.”
Iran claimed the attack on Israel was in response Israel attacked the embassy complex in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. The Islamic regime has accused Israel of carrying out the April 1 attack that killed seven Iranian soldiers, including senior commanders.
Iran’s special envoy to the United Nations use the excuse of self-defense for the country’s actions.
“This action is in exercise of Iran’s inherent right of self-defense as stated in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and in response to Israel’s repeated acts of military aggression, in particular the page on April 1, 2024 targeting Iranian diplomatic facilities. Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani said.
‘Extreme retaliation’ later?
Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups that oppose Israel, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza is often considered a conflict proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Tehran has also supported Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis as well as the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
“Strategically, I think you will get a move from Israel within a week,” said David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy. He did not expect Israeli forces to attack Iranian oil facilities because that would “offend all their supporters.” like the United States.
Roche said Israel’s immediate response could be moderate, but he did not rule out the possibility of “extreme retaliation” that could happen a year or more from now.
“If you get the most extreme form of retaliation – which I don’t think you will get now – but you certainly will get within a year or 18 months, against Iran’s nuclear capabilities, then I think you’re in a market meltdown,” he told CNBC on Monday.
Roche said, in any case, what the US wants is de-escalation. “But I emphasize that you are de-escalating to a higher level of escalation, this level will continue to exist, which I think because of the nuclear threat from Iran, is expected to increase further in the future. The next 18 months equal one giant leap.”
What’s next for Iran?
Regardless of Israel’s response, Bohl said, Iran will “try to shake up the global economy more and more,” but only “just enough for the US to put diplomatic pressure on Israel to de-escalate,” he added. .
On Saturday, in the wake of a drone and missile attack on Israel, Iran seized an Israel-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for oil.
“That kind of harassment and behavior will probably continue in some way, the scale of which will probably be gauged by how tough Israel will be on Iran,” Bohl said.
Iran says its attack on Israel is now over.
“The matter can be considered closed,” Iran’s delegation to the United Nations said on social media platform X.
However, they warned that “if the Israeli regime makes another mistake, Iran’s response will be significantly more severe,” adding that the United States should “stay out of” the conflict between Israel and Iran.
– CNBC’s Sumathi Bala contributed to this report.
