Guests “Just a little outside! ” by David Middleton
After reading Anthony’s excellent knock On the claim that climate change is causing more baseball games in the Major League Baseball, one thing really stands out: The authors of BAM . paper don’t know jack schist about baseball.
Here is a summary of the BAM paper:
Global warming, running at home and the future of America’s pastime
Christopher W. Callahan, Nathaniel J. Dominy, Jeremy M. DeSilva and Justin S. Mankin
Published online: April 7, 2023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1
abstract
Baseball games at home — fair balls hit out of the field — have increased since 1980, prompting strategic changes in gameplay. A multitude of factors could account for these trends, with some speculating that global warming has contributed to the decrease in air density in the football field. Here, we use observations from 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 220,000 individually hit balls to show that higher temperatures significantly increase home runs. We isolated anthropogenic warming with climate models, finding that more than 500 home runs since 2010 were due to historical warming. Hundreds of more home runs are expected each season due to future warming. Adjustments such as building domes over stadiums or shifting daytime games to nighttime games reduce the impact of temperature on the American pastime. Our results highlight the myriad ways a warmer planet would restructure our lives, livelihoods and recreation, some of which are quantifiable and easily adaptable, as shown in Fig. Here, there are many other ways not.
Their claims can be easily refuted with baseball statistics.
Inside baseball
Most of what follows deals with the intricacies of baseball and, more specifically, baseball statistics. If you are not familiar with the topic and you ask kindly, I will try to explain the terminology in the comments. If I tried to explain it in the main body of the post, I would never finish writing it.
I’m pretty sure Earl Nash isn’t a climatologist, but he discovered it 10 years ago.
The last time the MLB made a major rule change to the pitcher’s mound was in 1969. In 1904, the height of the mound was limited to zero. than 15 inches above baseline and pitchers are prohibited from soiling a new ball.
In response to the utter dominance of pitch over hit in 1968, MLB attempted to recalibrate the balance in favor of hitters by lowering the 5-inch mound to 10 inches above the hit. with the baseline.
This was a general policy change intended to make the game more enjoyable for fans by increasing the number of hits and runs scored, which subsequently resulted in a violation of the DH rule in in 1976.
Media consultants tell MLB that only purists like to close and end low-scoring games—“fight of the pitchers”—and that most fans want to see more goals and more personnel.
When the Steroid Era arrived and Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were “chasing for the Babe,” Commissioner Bud Selig was driving the race, and since it was generating more interest and fan revenue for MLB, he was. continue to turn a blind eye to clearly used things. of steroids.
Before the Steroid Scandal in MLB, most of the abrupt changes in the fragile balance between pitcher and hitter were attributed to “squeezed” baseballs, “buttoned” bats. bottle” and the height of the mound.
Personally, I prefer a duel of good pitchers. I used to have the pleasure of watching Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan in a great pitchers duel at the old Arlington Stadium.
Ryan and Rangers beat Clemens and Red Sox 2-1, on Rafael Palmeiro’s 2 homer at the end of the 8th half. Arlington Stadium is a small football field. Even though we were sitting in the stands on the right side of the field, the sound of their quick balls hitting the catchers’ gloves was remarkable. Ryan beat 11 Red Sox in 8 rounds; while Clemens beat 6 Rangers in 9 innings. The funny thing is that homerun and strikeout go together like baseball and hot dog… Or like baseball and stats for that matter.
The number of home runs in each team game has steadily increased since the Cro-Magnon Man made his first throw in 1871, and this coincides with the warming described in HadCRUT4 NH and most all other temperature abnormal records:
Figure 1. Home runs per team game (1871-2022)
It is thought that some of the increased frequency of homeruns since 1962 is the result of warmer, less dense air converting some of the long balloons into homeruns. OK… ‘explain this then:
Figure 2. Attack per team game (1871-2022)
The number of attacks in each team game also increased with the supposed increase in temperature; while the ratio of strike versus run home has remained relatively stable since 1920.
Figure 3. Attacks per Homerun (1920-2022)
Anyone who’s ever been a serious baseball fan knows that power hitters tend to strike more often than contact hitters; although this is not a general rule.
JUNE 25, 2019, AT 3:18 PM
You can’t run home without an attack
Literally that is. The ratio between the two has not changed throughout history.
The defining characteristics of baseball in 2019 are home run and attack. Both are at all-time highs since Tuesday. Make no mistake, the two stats are closely related – and have been throughout baseball history.
This season, as of Tuesday, has 6.4 hits per hour. The average in the Live Ball era, which began in 1920, was 6.5. So when adjusting for home players for hits, 2019 was a near-perfect average year, ranking 45th out of the last 100 seasons for most strikes per season. players across the league. And note that only four of the top 20 seasons with the fewest strikes per game have happened Later The Open Era began in 1961: 1961 (5.51 home shots), 2000 (5.51), 1987 (5.62) and 1999 (5.62), according to Baseball-Reference.com.
[…]
When does the feedback loop of strikes start to end? Never, if we believe the preeminent sage of the sport, Bill James, who anticipate these changes many years ago. He calls it the “push/pull effect.” Baseball now knows that getting more hits defined being a better pitcher. But decision makers have gone far beyond believing that the best strike less. In fact, teams now seem to be conceding what James has long argued for – “slightly better offensive players.” Simply put, the rich don’t care at all about sniffing.
“So you have push up on the strike column from the pitcher selection, but no push down from the batter,” writes James. “The result of this is that attacks increase over time.” And, apparently, homers too.
As far as I can remember, Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, and I shared the same dose of statistics that led to: Baseball, especially football Bill James and Sabermetrics.
It stands to reason that if climate change is converting long balloons into home balloons, it will also convert shallow balloons into long balloons, and we’ll see an increase in the number of flights. birth increased.
Figure 4. Number of sacrificed starts per team game (1954-2022).
It seems climate change is very selective in the way it turns balloons into home turf balloons. It can only be long “squeezed” balloons.
If climate change causes more balloons to fly deeper over the fence, the ratio of home runs to balloons (HR/FB) will increase… Right? I can only locate HR/FB data back 1988. This is good enough, because that was the year that Al Gore and James Hansen invented Gorebal Warming.
It seems that the HR/FB ratio does not change in a statistically significant way.
Figure 5. Homerun per Flyball (1988-2022)
The historical increase in homerun rates can clearly be explained by:
Changes to baseball rules designed to make “games more interesting”
Improvements in facilities, training and equipment
Gradual acceptance that an increase in attacks is a good trade-off for more home runs
Conclusion
Claiming that global warming is “depleting” homerun MLBs seems to be…
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