By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An epic Saturday of racing across North America included a pair of Road to Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Keeneland and Santa Anita.
What are we waiting for? Let’s dive in and explore the items:
Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland
There are many ways to qualify for this 1/16 “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). One person can support Forte, who had no trouble defeating Champagne S. (G1) futures Blazing Sevens and Gulfport 1-3 in Saratoga’s Hopeful S. (G1). Or we can support Lost beer keg, winner of Sapling S.’s undefeated run at Monmouth Park. Or we could try the runner Iroquois S. (G3) in second honed.
But finally, Log in and Newgate are the two people I would most like to support. And on this pair, I’m leaning towards Loggins, an interesting Brad Cox intern bought for $460,000 as an aspiration.
Loggins ran like a beast in his first sprint at 6 1/2 against a girly special weight team at Churchill Downs. After casually following and hitting fractions of :22.91 and :45.80, Loggins captured the command and was clear to dominate 8 1/2 lengths.
Loggins raced down the block, running a third quarter mile in :23.85 and finally sixteenth in :06.20 to record an apparent final time of 1:15, eighty seven. That translates into high-speed numbers of 90 (Beyer) and 99 (Brisnet), which rank among the best in the Breeders’ Futurity field.
According to Brisnet’s stats, Cox wins the top 30% with first-time long runs, so Loggins is eligible to improve while extending the distance for Breeders’ Futurity. Certainly his pedigree (of Ghostzapper in a reprehensible mare) points to endurance. I expect Loggins to make another big run on Saturday and contend for victory at the hands of hot coach Florent Geroux.
As for Newgate, he was a sharp debut winner running a short 5 1/2 sprint at Del Mar, hitting a quick pace before taking the helm to win under a 3 1 long-sleeve /2. He then promoted in the seven-horse Del Mar Futurity (G1) category and couldn’t keep up with blistering fractions of: 21.56 and: 43.65, weakening from track to fourth. in the nine-horse racecourse.
Newgate will encounter a significantly slower tempo in Breeders’ Futurity, so I imagine Into Mischief’s son will bounce out of the gate and secure a comfortable position near the head of the guitar. From there, Newgate was able to stretch his pace more effectively under Hall of Fame coach John Velazquez and beat his morning 20-1 odds.
American Pharoah S. (G1) at Santa Anita
It’s too early to appoint a division leader, but Stone cave looks ready to roam the American Pharoah, a 1/16-mile stepping stone to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If the Arrogate champion’s son lives up to expectations at Santa Anita, he’ll be off to a good start to winning the two-year-old men’s champion Eclipse Award.
Cave Rock wowed in two warm-ups against hot coach Bob Baffert, who hit 4-9 (44%) to start the meetup in Santa Anita. In the special girly 6 1/2 long-haired weight class at Del Mar, Cave Rock led all the way to dominance with six lengths with strong speed numbers of 101 (Beyer) and 104 ( Brisnet). He was even more impressive in the seven-feathered Del Mar Futurity (G1), once again leading all the way to dominance with 5 1/4 lengths with the numbers 98 (Beyer) and 105 ( Brisnet).
By all stats, Cave Rock is completely exhausted in Del Mar Futurity. He puts crazy speed fractions (:21.56 and :43.65) that can exhaust many horses, but he still knocks out the gym to beat the Best Pal S winner. ( G2) Havnameltdown with a daytime lead.
Arrogate thrives on races around two turns, and Brisnet stats show Baffert winning by 31% with first-time long-running horses, so there’s no reason to think Cave Rock will. does not shine above 1/16 mile in American Pharoah. Speed numbers will be much easier than in Del Mar Futurity, so the stage is set for Cave Rock to win a second Place 1 win in a row.
For the second place, we will give
Hejazi an effort. The $3.55 million auction buyout is 0 for 2 so far, but he posted insanely high-speed numbers of 100 (Beyer) and 101 (Brisnet) as he finished second in the league match. special for girls 5 1/2 times at Del Mar last month. That race’s form improved as Speed Boat Beach bounced back to win the Speakeasy S., earning a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1).
Hejazi was bred from top to bottom to thrive on long runs, so I’m optimistic he’ll appreciate reaching over 1/16 of a mile and staying on homestead to ensure a solid finish. behind Cave Rock.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in this week’s Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
