It’s a slim pick this week, with just five matches priced by the bookies. However, as always, there is still some value to be had.
The Longshot
Once again, I’m heading into a battle involving a potential customer for big picking today. Guido Vianello takes on Rafael Rios in eight rounds, under the mid-world title knockout Joet Gonzalez and Isaac Dogboe.
Personally, I believe the bookies have priced the main event correctly and I can’t stop anyone including Gonzalez from winning by decision at 10/11 in their accumulator. Sadly, that’s too short a price for this column. The Vianello fight, on the other hand, offers bettors a few more eye-catching prices.
The Italian has won eight of his nine matches as a professional, with all of his victories coming by knockout. Seven of those wins came in the first two innings and I could consider this another short night for ‘The Gladiator.’
Rios talked about himself against Carlos Negron. Despite being stopped in the second round, the Mexican fought back and threw multiple punches at his opponent.
Rios’ willingness to move on will likely be to his detriment in this game. Vianello is quicker, has more hands and directs shots, as opposed to the wide Mexican hooks.
Vianello has a pretty good amateur lineage having represented Italy at the 2016 Rio Olympics. I feel this is a smart combination of Top Rank as comparisons will be drawn with Negron’s performance. before Rios. Bob Arum’s promotional outfit must be confident that Vianello can pause the game early and look good doing so. Top ratings tend to be better than most at raising their prospects.
The only worrying thing here is that Vianello has been out of the ring for more than a year, after suffering a ruptured ligament in his left hand. Hopefully he makes a full recovery.
I think Vianello is good enough to knock out Rios in the opening round, at 7/2.
Pair
As stated above, I believe there is a real possibility that Vianello is capable of stopping Rios in the first three minutes, so you won’t be surprised to hear that I also think the Italians will win. winning in round 1-2 at 3/2 also represents good value.
The main support for Gonzalez against Dogboe saw Gabriel Flores Jr face the undefeated Giovanni Cabrera in a match the bookies see as an option. I like Flores in this game, despite his lackluster performance in his last two games. I feel like a move to lightweight would suit Flores. The selection was Flores by decision on 7/5. It’s worth noting, however, that Graham Houston leaned towards Cabrera in Weekend corner. Graham has a great track record with these picks, which is worth remembering.
This week’s pair is priced at 5/1.
Treble
In Philadelphia, an intense featherweight bout led the charts as Christian Tapia faced Fernando Romero. Tapia has saved 12 opponents in 14 wins, while Romero has blocked all of his opponents in 11 wins. There’s not a lot of gruesome footage of the Mexican Romero, but from what I’ve seen, he’s a fighter capable of applying pressure, but one that is ready to counterattack. There is a substantial video of Tapia, who recorded the best win of his career over Mason Menard. Given the confrontation between Puerto Rico and Mexico, it is unlikely that Romero will give up at the first sign of adversity. The pick here is for Tapia to win between rounds 5-8 by 2/1.
If you like all three options, the treble is worth 17/1.
