France’s Macron called the election his far-right rival Le Pen could win

Analysts say French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call an early national election after his far-right opponents surged is a high-risk move and a risky move. Big political silver.

Mr. Macron’s decision to call for a quick vote in parliament was made after the right-wing National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, took the lead. won about 31% of the vote in Sunday’s European Parliament elections. This is more than double the 14.6% seen for Macron’s centrist and pro-European Renaissance Party and its allies.

France’s CAC 40 fell 1.8% in early trading hours Monday morning as French banks traded sharply lower. BNP Paribas And General Association leader Stoxx 600Both losses decreased by about 6%. The euro also decreased by about 0.4% compared to dollars amid uncertainty.

“This is a necessary moment for clarity,” Mr. Macron said in his national address on Sunday night. when he announced his decision to dissolve parliament.

He added: “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not ignore them… France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.” The first round of voting will take place on June 30, the second round will take place on July 7.

As it stands, Macron’s Renaissance Party has 169 seats in the French House of Representativesout of a total of 577 seats, and the RN has 88 seats.

Ipsos poll of 4,000 people respondents asked about their voting intentions last December thought the RN could win 243–305 seats, giving it a majority in Parliament.

If we see such results in the upcoming election, Le Pen will likely become prime minister and have an important say on French economic and domestic policy, although Macron – as president – will remain in charge of foreign policy, justice and defense.

Daniel Hamilton, senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s Foreign Policy Institute SAIS, described Macron’s decision as the “big story” of wider voting in the European Parliament over the past few days and could easily lead to a seismic shift in the French government. in which Macron “will essentially have to govern with his enemies.”

“His gamble is to use the three years before the next presidential election to show they’ve done a really bad job and somehow voters will reward him. So this is a big political gamble and will create a lot of instability in France,” he said. he told CNBC on Monday.

“While much can happen in the coming weeks, available information suggests Macron predicted an election he might lose.” the best in a terrible political situation.”

Barroso believes that Macron will likely “try to exploit the shock of the RN’s big win in the EP elections to mobilize centrist voters and limit Le Pen’s ability to win an absolute majority in the AN”. [the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament]. The RN can still lead a minority government, but a divided parliament will make it difficult for an RN-led government to pass laws,” he said.

Barroso believes that Macron’s reason for calling the snap poll was probably to deliver victory to the National Rally “just in time to expose the party’s inexperience in government and make them face politically painful decisions ahead of the 2027 presidential election.”

For example, he noted that if Le Pen’s party heads the next government, it will have to pass spending cuts or tax increases (or both) as part of the 2025 budget in the fall to reducing France’s large budget deficit (among other things). 5.5% of GDP in 2023).

“This will be an important test for Le Pen, as she increasingly presents herself as fiscally responsible in attracting center-right voters,” he noted.