A preview of the potential Western Conference play-in tournament took place Tuesday night when Golden Empire Warriors came to Crypto.com Arena to participate Los Angeles Lakers in the final home game of the season.
This was the fourth time these two teams faced off this season, as the Warriors won by a final season score of 134-120. The Warriors are now half a game behind the Lakers and have three games remaining.
But these two Western Conference foes are no strangers to high-stakes games, and with the regular season ending on Sunday and the play-in tournament looming, all eyes will be on the game. Potentially epic battle after this season.
From matchup X-factors to playoff ceilings, NBA insiders Kevin Pelton, Ramona Shelburne and Bobby Marks answer the biggest questions in tonight’s game as Stephen curry And LeBron James try to lead their team to the 2023-24 NBA playoffs.
1. What was the biggest lesson learned from Tuesday’s match?
Ramona Shelburne: The Lakers can’t stop anyone without Anthony Davis in the middle of their defense. The Warriors scored 70 points in the first half, 104 in three quarters and finished with 134, getting to the rim seemingly at will without the threat of Davis in the backline. The same thing happened Sunday against Minnesota when Davis went off the field with an eye injury. He has been extremely durable this season, but not having him in the past two games has really hurt the Lakers as they fight to stay out of the 10/9 play-in game this week next.
Bobby Marks: No Davis and no chance. As Ramona mentioned, the Lakers’ defense is a revolving door without Davis on the court. After winning eight of nine games entering Sunday, the Lakers have now lost two in a row and any chance of being eliminated from the play-in round is slim. The remaining lesson is not to discount Golden State in a playoff-style environment. The Warriors would still have to beat the Lakers and Suns or Kings if the season ended today just to make it to the first round. But the Warriors played with a sense of urgency, as evidenced by their veterans (Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins And Green Draymond) scored a total of 82 points.
Kevin Pelton: Golden State has plenty of life left to avoid the 10th seed in the West play-in and needs to win two games on the road just to make the playoffs. Thanks to their 3-1 win over the Lakers in the series, the Warriors currently hold the head-to-head lead and are even in the loss column, meaning they will likely finish ninth and host the rematch next week. comes if both teams win – – more complex multi-team relationships pending.
Both the Warriors and Lakers have just one more game left against an opponent with something to strive for — the game New Orleans Pelican – who visit the Warriors on Friday before hosting the Lakers on Sunday. That puts New Orleans in an interesting position to help determine where the Lakers end up, which is relevant because the Pelicans retain the Lakers’ first-round draft pick unless they decide to delay it until 2025. (Of course, New Orleans has its own playoff seeding to manage, and the Pelicans certainly want to stay in sixth place to avoid facing a play-in.)
A Lakers victory would drop Golden State to 10th place in the West. The Warriors’ win makes the final five days of the season that much more interesting.
2. Who is more dangerous in a one-game scenario: LeBron or Steph?
Shelburne: This is quite a problem for any team with either player and only one win. Imagine if they were on the same team, like what was discussed between the ownership of the Lakers and Warriors before the trade deadline. In this case, James gets the slight nod because he holds the ball a lot and can control the game himself. Curry needs someone to run the Warriors’ offense and could get hit by bigger, more physical teams. But he is still the most powerful offensive player when he is in the middle of one of his attacks.
Point: James and Curry have each played in two play-in games since the league began in 2021. James is 2-0 while Curry’s Golden State team has lost twice in 2021. We’ve seen the magic at Curry last year winner takes all Game 7 in Sacramento. But that was last year, and I trust James and most importantly his Lakers teammates to win this year. In games decided this season, the Lakers are 23-9, tied with Dallas for the best winning percentage. Meanwhile, Golden State has played a league-high 45 such games and had one of them below .500.
Pelton: Can I answer ‘yes’? As Bobby notes, Curry is less than a year away from having one of the great single-game performances in NBA history. Meanwhile, James has had a second career in analyzing his energy to peak in the biggest moments, as we saw during last year’s run from the play-in round to the game. conference finals. Ultimately, I would pick James for his ability to control the game at both ends as he turns up the defensive intensity.
3. Which player on these two teams, besides LeBron and Steph, is the biggest X-factor making it to the play-ins and potentially the playoffs?
Pelton: Klay Thompson. When Thompson took the shot, the Warriors still looked like a contender. Despite losing its best game of the season by game point, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Golden State is still 8-1 when Thompson posts game points of 20 or more – including Tuesday night. In the 12 games in which Thompson had a game score worse than five, the Warriors are 2-10. That could be bad news against the Lakers given how Thompson has struggled against them historically, including shooting 34 percent in last year’s playoff loss, but he’s scored a total of 53. points while shooting 19/31 in his past two games in LA
Shelburne: I’m going with Draymond Green because the Warriors simply aren’t the Warriors when he’s not at his best on both ends of the court. He is the anchor of their defense and the engine of their attack. He also shoots the ball well enough from behind the three-point arc (39.5%) that teams respect him – thereby creating space for Curry and others. Tuesday night, his five 3-pointers in the first half made an impact for the Warriors. Now he’s doing all of this with lower back discomfort that’s kept him out of some recent games.
Point: The obvious answer is Anthony Davis, as he is the best player on both teams not named James or Curry. But D’Angelo Russell is the X-factor for the Lakers in terms of how far they will go. Russell is the driving force of the starting lineup (Austin ReavesJames, Rui Hachimura and Davis) are 16-6 and plus 6.3 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are 15-3 in games Russell scores 25-plus and is 9-2 when he makes 11 or more 3-pointers. But in 27 career playoff games, Russell is shooting 38.9% from the field, 32.9% on 3s and averaging 14.1 points.
BONUS! What is each team’s playoff ceiling if they get in?
Shelburne: I picked the Warriors to win it all at the start of the season and still think they can do it with the right draw. In other words – if they make the playoffs and avoid Denver for as long as possible. The same is true for the Lakers. Both teams have the talent and playoff experience to beat anyone. Of course, avoiding Denver isn’t really a strategy, and I don’t see how either team can take down the defending champions in a seven-game series.
Point: It depends on the opponent in the first round. The Denver, Lakers or Warriors first-round series will begin their break at the end of April. Minnesota will certainly be a challenge, especially if Karl-Anthony Town return from his left knee injury. The Lakers were 1-2 against the Timberwolves, but one of those losses was by a 2-point margin. Golden State has been winless in three games.
The starting five in Oklahoma City have never played in a playoff series together, and inexperience could be a factor if the Thunder tie either team. Entering the playoffs, Oklahoma was the second youngest team (behind only Orlando) in terms of players averaging over 20 minutes. Beginner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander And Luguentz Dort and reserve Gordon Hayward, Bisack Biyombo And Mike Muscala are the only players with playoff experience. The Lakers lead Oklahoma City 3-1 and Golden State is 1-3. Since the play-in tournament began in 2021, no 9th or 10th place team (Memphis reached the first round in 2021) has made it past the first round.
Pelton: The ceiling is determined when they meet the Nuggets. I’d love to see another Denver-Golden State series after their 2022 matchup, in which the Nuggets are without both Jamal Murray And Michael Porter Jr.. But the defending champions have swept all seven matches against these two teams and will be huge favourites.
Thanks to their playoff experience and star power, the Lakers and Warriors would have a realistic chance in any other potential first-round matchup – and possibly in the second round if Denver is on the other side of the bracket. Let’s be clear, this is different from last season, when the Lakers reached the conference finals without defeating any team that won more than 51 games. This year’s path may require beating two teams with better records than the 2022-23 Grizzlies (51-31).
