By Paul Homewood
The Met Office has produced weather forecasts for a period of three decades, despite the fact that they are useless in forecasting more than a few days in advance!
To be fair, they explain that they are not actual forecasts on their blog:
You may have seen some of our forecasts look a little further than you would normally expect. Although they use the same graphics as our normal weather forecast, we have created theoretical ‘forecasts’ for 2050 to look at what conditions we can expect to see in UK if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.
One of the biggest challenges for communicating the dangers of climate change is how to show, understandably, how changes in our atmosphere can impact the weather. that we experience on the surface of the Earth. By showing what the weather might be like in 2050 at certain times of the year, it helps people relate to how their experiences might be different as the climate changes.
So far, we have come up with plausible scenarios for a July 2050 heat wave, Wimbledon and Christmas 2054and now we’ve looked at what Glastonbury might look like in 30 years’ time.
Reasonable situations
The important aspect of these ‘forecasts’ is that they are reasonable weather events for 2050. Of course, it is not possible to produce an accurate weather forecast for 2050, however, it is possible to generate an actual forecast based on the predicted atmospheric conditions. for the future.
Future projections are based on climate projections using high emission scenarios. One of the biggest sources of climate change uncertainty is how the world will manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. That’s why climate scientists model future global warming under a variety of scenarios.
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Here is the forecast for Glastonbury:
The only trouble is that they are unreasonable in some way.
Initially, the “high emissions” scenario, RCP 8.5 was simply unreliable, as everyone, except the BBC, admitted. The use of this scenario is purely designed to scare people and blame a supposed public service agency.
But more important is the fact that their silly forecast has nothing to do with what has actually happened to the UK climate.
For example, they pretend to forecast 40C heatwave talks in Doncaster, and for several days not just one. But Doncaster’s record temperature was only 35.5C. There is no remote possibility that the temperature reaches 40C there.
In Central England, it is a similar story, with a record of 34.2C, set in 2019. This is 0.8C higher than 1990 and as the data shows an out rate. Beyond that temperature since 1990 has not exceeded that year or 1976:
There is always the possibility of another exception in the coming years, which could push the record up to 35C. But pretending that a 40C heatwave will become the norm is irresponsible, dishonest, and reprehensible.
Such claims have nothing to do with science, and are designed for propaganda purposes only. Thus, the lengthy lecture at the end of the video tells us that we must cut our emissions or else.
Of course, we can have a little more confidence in the Met Office’s predictions, if years ago climate scientists had not assured us that we would all enjoy the Mediterranean summer. at this moment!
The inconvenient fact is that summer is still no hotter than 1976, and even 2018’s boilers are only hotter than 1995:
Torremolinos? Like Frimpton-on-Sea!
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