Are from NoTricksZone
Via P Gosselin
With the current shortage of natural gas, the German government is hoping for a warmer winter so people don’t freeze to death. However, on the other hand, the government warns that warm winters mean a climate disaster that is putting our civilization in jeopardy!
This year, many people are interested in forecasting the kind of winter that is taking place in Europe. Ironically, it is said that scientists all agree on long-term climate projections, however, they cannot even agree on what will happen in the immediate future over the next few months.
Hat head: Snowfan here.
For example fir, NOAA / CFSv2 see a fiery warm winter for the whole of Europe ahead:
However, in early October, Germany DWD The National Weather Service forecasts a warmer-than-normal winter, but not as hot as NOAA:
The IRI . prognosisOn the other hand, a winter with near-normal temperatures across Central Europe:
But a warm, dry October in Europe means a cold
However, according to the statistics of the German meteorologist, Professor Franz Baur of the University of Berlin: “If in Central Europe October is too warm by more than 2 degrees and at the same time too dry, then a cold or extremely cold January is expected with very high probability. “
October this year is very mild (+2°C) and relatively dry in Germany, especially in the second half of the year, so statistically, a cold winter in Europe, according to GS Baur.
The role of La Nina
Hat head: Die kalte Sonne
For those with only a partial knowledge of meteorology, it is understandable that the severity of winter depends entirely on the prevailing weather patterns present, and they are largely governed by the weather. globally by ocean cycles. (Less related to Co2).
Here, weather.com here explains that this year is the third year in a row that La Niña has occurred and considers the possible impact on Europe’s upcoming winter.
La Nina involves cooling in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America along with impacts to other parts of the world. This includes increased rainfall in Australia, as it just happened. Weather.com correctly writes:
Our winters are influenced by two main factors. One is La Niña and the other is a polar vortex. And then there are the interactions, which doesn’t make it any easier.
During the La Niña years, there is a strong likelihood of a strong climax in the north of Russia, possibly extending into Scandinavia. At the same time, there is an increase in low pressure activity on the Iberian Peninsula – that is, over Spain and Portugal.
Therefore, it is quite temperate and relatively dry in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, in Southwest Europe, it will be relatively cool and wet. At least, that’s the kind of weather you can expect with an undisturbed La Niña.”
Meteorologist Jan Schenk explains how La Nina impacts the Jet Stream which, in most cases, leads to mild Central European winters. Picture cut here.
Weather.com then also forecast disturbances to the polar vortex, which could lead to a polar plume across Europe, and thus a warm winter.
And in the past, such SSWs actually happened relatively frequently during La Niña years, mainly in January and February. There is a 60 to 75% chance of another polar vortex disturbance this winter. After a turbulence, it usually takes 2 to 6 weeks before cold air from the North Pole actually reaches us.”
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