BERLIN — Almost a month after Berlin allowed European allies to send German-made tanks to Ukraine, the stream of tanks many leaders vowed to follow seems like a trickle.
Some countries have discovered that the tanks in their arsenals are not really working or that there is a shortage of spare parts. Political leaders have encountered unforeseen resistance within their own coalitions, and even from their own defense ministries. And some militaries have had to withdraw retired trainers to teach Ukrainian soldiers how to use old-fashioned tanks.
The struggle to supply Leopard tanks to a fighting Ukraine is just the most obvious manifestation of a fact Europe has long ignored: Believing that large-scale land war is a thing of the past and sinking. immersed in the thaw of the Cold War, countries frequently lacked their military capital. When Russia launched the largest land war on the continent since the Second World War, it was regrettably unprepared.
Signs of the problem have appeared several times since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, due to a lack of weapons and ammunition. But now, as Germany and its allies struggled for weeks to assemble enough Leopard 2s to fill two tank battalions – 62 in total – the extent of their difficulty became even more apparent. than.
The irony of this situation does not lose to Germany.
For weeks, Prime Minister Olaf Scholz has resisted a vigorous public pressure campaign from Ukrainian leaders, European politicians and security experts to supply Kiev with tanks and allow other countries sent some Leopards of their own, despite German concerns that Russia might notice it. as an escalation of NATO. Many people provoked Mr. Scholz with a social media campaign: #Freetheleopards.
Leopards may be free now, but they are scarce on the ground. And some of the countries calling for permission to send them to Ukraine are having trouble doing so, or are second thoughts of their own.
Although Europe has an estimated 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks of various models – they are among the most commonly used main battle tanks across the continent – commitments to Ukraine remain. missing the hundreds that the country says it needs.
Germany provided 18 and Poland another 14, but the number dwindled from there. And once the tanks that are currently committed to combat are hit or damaged, it’s not clear which Leopards – or which countries – will replace them.
“Of course some countries have done, or at least announced that they will,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at the Munich Security Conference this month. “But others didn’t do it.”
“That’s what shocked me a bit,” he added. “Obviously there are some countries – and I will never name them here – but we have some that like to hide behind Germany. To say: We would love to, if we may. But when we gave them permission, they didn’t do anything.”
Privately, many German and European officials involved in the tank delivery talks say the situation is more complicated. It’s not that countries don’t want to make good on their promises, but rather they’ve faced a rude awakening to how difficult it is.
Finland, where many outspoken members of Parliament led calls for Germany to allow Leopard deliveries, announced on Thursday that it would provide three Leopard demining vehicles – but none of the the country’s estimated 200 Leopard main battle tanks.
Some German officials sympathize with Finland, which is not a member of NATO and has Europe’s longest border with Russia, about 830 miles. It does not want to weaken its defenses as Russia has demonstrated a willingness to attack a sovereign neighbor.
But some European officials had hoped for a larger contribution from Finland, with promises from the United States and Britain to protect them if necessary, even before joining NATO.
Nordic countries like Sweden, which have long pushed for Leopard deliveries but delivered only “up to” 10 on Friday, are facing another unexpected problem, some German officials said. know: While their politicians and the public appear to want to supply tanks to Ukraine, their military does not.
For decades, European nations that enjoyed the “peace dividend” after the Cold War viewed war as a near-forgotten thing, frequently cutting back on military support. Now, shrinking armies tend to protect what they still have. In NATO, the European army is sometimes referred to as the “plant army”, after the miniature trees.
For years, the United States begged Europe to increase military spending, and in 2014, after Russia occupied Crimea, NATO members agree spending 2% of GDP by 2024. However, even today, according to current NATO estimates, only nine out of 30 members of the alliance are spending as much, while a tenth is close. Thirteen countries, including Germany, spent about 1.5 percent of their GDP or even less.
In Germany, for many years engaged in a foreign policy emphasizing aid and development rather than hard power, some see the issue as German alone. Annual military reports to Congress sometimes offer humorous glimpses of the shortage. The commandos conducted underwater training at local public pools, as their facilities were closed. The plane cannot fly. Soldiers were trained with broomsticks instead of rifles. Even the newer Puma infantry fighting vehicles recently suffered massive breakdowns.
But other European nations are now realizing that their militaries could be in similar trouble.
“The cross-cutting trend in the European army is cut, cut, cut,” Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations said. “But in the end, many people went in the same direction with Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.
Spain, which has 108 Leopard 2A4 tanks, soon asked Germany for permission to supply some of its tanks to Ukraine. Now it is discovered that many of them are in dire condition and need refurbishment which could take weeks or months. In addition, one of the prime minister’s coalition partners, the leftist Podemos party, is more pro-Russian and has rejected offers of more support for Ukraine.
However, as Germany put pressure back on its allies for their shortcomings, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, on Friday improved on his promise to send six Leopards and said Spain would now send 10 pcs.
Ulrike Franke, a defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the struggle to find tank numbers raises questions about where else European militaries face shortages. shortages and similar maintenance problems.
“Is it just bad luck that Spain has problems with their Leopard tanks, and everything else works?” she speaks. “Or do they have similar problems elsewhere?”
“10% of their devices are down or is it 50%?” asked Miss Franke. “It would be a good idea if the Europeans looked at this more closely.”
Poland, which has difficult relations with Germany, was at the forefront of pressing Mr. Scholz and Berlin over Leopards, and even threatened to send some to Ukraine without the necessary permission of Virtue. Like Berlin, Warsaw has around 200 Leopard 2 tanks – but they say they will only deliver 14. They sent the first tank to Ukraine on the anniversary of the invasion, 24 February, although Poland has yet to finish training Ukrainian soldiers. to use them.
Some analysts say Warsaw may delay deliveries of the Leopard until it receives a new Hyundai-made K2 tank from South Korea, intended to replace the German model. Poland has sent many upgraded Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine.
But some European officials say Warsaw should provide more Leopards, and some policymakers are planning to meet with Polish officials this week to better understand the situation. Even when it comes to tanks with a large supply – specifically the older Leopard 1 models – there are troubles.
The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium have launched a joint initiative to refurbish and ship 150 Leopard 1 models to Ukraine by the end of the year. But at a training session for Ukrainian soldiers in Germany earlier this week, a general said the army was forced to look for retired Leopard 1 tank drivers to come back and help train the forces. Ukraine. The old model is too foreign to the current military.
As the Leopard issue becomes politicized, Gustav Gressel, a security analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that there are many solutions if European nations work together.
For example, the Dutch leased 18 Leopards from Germany. Officials are discussing whether Germany could take some of them to use in place of its own Leopards in Lithuania and then send them to Ukraine.
Switzerland, which is neutral to the constitution, refuses to send any of its 134 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. But it is ready to supply tanks to European Union members, Mr. Gressel said. Countries like Finland or Poland can request Swiss tanks and send their tanks to Ukraine, he said.
Another option is for countries to simply purchase more Leopards made by German companies Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and send their existing models to Ukraine. But European governments and the defense industry are currently at a production standstill.
State leaders want industry to grow first, while arms manufacturers want long-term government orders before they ramp up production. If there are more government orders, capacity could increase, thereby speeding up the production of weapons like tanks, analysts say.
Security experts say that, at the current rate, militaries will face a severe shortage of tanks within the next two to three years as the industry builds new vehicles.
That’s why Mr. Gressel argued that the tanks should be sent out now anyway.
“Yes,” he said, “Russia will become a military threat to NATO after this war. But it will take years for them to return as a military threat. They have to rebuild an army that was disbanded and almost destroyed in Ukraine.”
Erika Solomon and Christopher F. Schuetze reported from Berlin, and Steven Erlanger from Brussels. Jose Bautista contribution reports from Madrid, and Johanna Lemola from Helsinki.
