College Football Playoff – Five questions for the committee

When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago and the sport’s championship grew from two to four teams, even the system’s creators were unable to answer some questions. arose — or they had to try very hard.

What is the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions are out? When are match results important? And when were they fired? How do you measure a team’s strength of schedule? And how much does the strength of schedule stem from the perceived strength of the opponent’s own conference?

When the 12-team CFP is announced this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s mission — and its protocol — remain largely unchanged, but the unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.

In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.

1. Will the assessment of strength of schedule change with conference realignment?

Losing isn’t something top national title contenders do — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things messy in the room committee meeting.

The committee typically rewards teams that compete against tougher opponents, winning against the CFP’s top 25 teams by high ratings. However, with the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16 teams, some CFP contenders now have a tougher path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous schedules of the SEC and Big Ten will make it more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams in the SEC championship game have lost one or none. During that same time frame, 11 of the 20 Big Ten teams competing in the league championship game had one or no losses.

Currently?

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and no team has more than a 20% chance. to win 12-0. The only time in the CFP era that no team had more than a 20% chance of finishing undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.

What will it mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues lose multiple times and are being compared to opponents from the ACC and Big 12 – teams with better records but facing fewer ranked opponents? superior?

“Do I think there will be teams that lose multiple times in the playoffs,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. Yes, almost certainly there is.” “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There will be debate about which teams are eliminated. At the end of the day, everyone gets a chance to go on the field and perform and play and get in. Someone’s going to get eliminated that shouldn’t be… We had that with the four-team playoff three times I thought we were one of the top four teams but we didn’t win the title on the field.”

2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will make the cut?

Using last year’s final CFP rankings with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would combine to claim 10 of the 12 spots.

SEC champion Alabama will be joined by Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan will be joined by Washington (2023 Pac-12 champion), Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State.

There is no limit to the number of teams from a conference that can qualify for the playoffs, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will typically feature champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and Group of 5 winners. In 2023, those winners are Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (outside of Conference USA, top-ranked G5 winner).

How often will conference champions from the ACC and Big 12 be their sole representatives?

3. Ranking the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team lurking?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive byes in the first round. The rest will play their first round match at the home stadium of the higher seed. The winning team in the match between No. 8 and No. 9 will meet the strongest team in the country in the quarterfinals. The loser will go home. Is this something the committee will have in mind – whether consciously or unconsciously – when making its final rankings on Selection Day?

Remember, these games will be played on December 20 and December 21 this year, which can be very cold at some facilities – especially in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees on December 20 last year and a low of 21 degrees.)

How much of an advantage could that be if they hosted a team from the South?

Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home field advantage due to its smaller size and location. The winner of that game will play No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.

4. What are the criteria for ranking the Top 5 champions?

Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was the decision to place undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group 5’s coveted New Year’s Six berth without defeating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical respect for the strength of schedule and was inconsistent with the committee’s justification throughout the rest of the Top 25.

If the 12-team playoffs exist in 2023, Liberty would earn a spot on the field as the top-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would edge 12th-ranked Oklahoma for the spot. that mind. Was Liberty’s pick unusual last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of Five, regardless of strength of schedule? If so, does that apply to the rest of the Top 25?

In the four-team playoffs, even the best Group of 5 champions face a nearly impossible CFP standard – an undefeated record that includes wins over Power opponents 5 and CFP Top 25 ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach the CFP semifinals in the decade of the four-team playoffs.

The criteria for making it to the 12-team field will be closely scrutinized as the best possibility is that the Group 5 Conference champion will defeat a strong 12th-place contender. Remember, It’s Not 12 Teams head of the committee. That’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that 5th champion ranks outside the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be eliminated to make room.

If the 5th champion is not ranked at all, the selection committee will rank the Group 5 champions separately and then announce the top school as the highest ranked Group 5 champion along with the Top 25.

Liberty once again did not face any Power 4 opponents. Does it matter?

5. How will the playoff paths of independent teams change?

It’s not just Notre Dame that will be affected by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be considered independents this fall because they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to participate in.

If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they will not receive a first-round bye because they cannot finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions . They will play one match in the first round and need to win four consecutive matches to win the national championship.

In the past, not having a conference title game was a win-win situation for the Irish. If they are already in the top four going into Selection Day, the Irish don’t have to risk losing and being eliminated. However, if they stay on the bubble, there won’t be another chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was playing.

Currently?

The Irish will be around more often if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone plays. There will be less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference championship. However, they still need to beat high-caliber opponents like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, while avoiding upsetting Marshall.

Oregon State’s best chance will be September 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both former Pac-12 teams need to make sure they have playoff eligibility against unranked opponents as they may have little chance to win in the CFP top 25.