For their study, Garner and colleagues compared where hurricanes form, how fast they move, and where they end. Comparing data from pre-industrial times with simulations spanning the end of the 21st century, the study found that tropical storms are 15% more likely to start life near the Southeast coast of the United States. According to modeling simulations, the storms are more likely to travel within 100 kilometers (62 mi) of both Boston and Norfolk than toward New York City.
But Garner says the results don’t mean New Yorkers can take their breath away. While the analysis suggests that the average storm could be farther out at sea, any individual storm would still pose a risk to the region. These future super typhoons will move quickly at sea, she said, covering more territory until they make landfall and slow down. This means they can land faster. “One of the effects that we see is that it takes less time to get to cities within 100 kilometers,” she said.
In addition, the team’s analysis shows that there will be more hurricanes along the East Coast, and because they move more slowly, they will generate stronger winds and more water damage to homes and business establishment. In fact, the longest-lasting storms will last twice as long as today’s storms. Garner continued: “Norfolk has seen the greatest impact during periods of prolonged storms, but all three cities have seen impacts that make one think about how they prepare for these events. Future.
Hurricanes need warm water to survive, and most of them tend to die off as they pass the northern boundary of the ocean currents around the bay, a broad, fast-moving ocean current that carries warm tropical water from the Gulf of Mexico through southern Florida, along Cape Hatteras and North Carolina, and across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe. Two recent storms, Dorian in 2019 and Matthew in 2016, were so powerful that they actually slowed the flow by 50% for several weeks, according to an article published last year in the journal Nature. Marine Systems Magazine.
The author of that study, Tal Ezer, a professor of earth and ocean sciences at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, believes that if future storms also change their direction and speed, that could be more destructive to the Current Bay. Ezer says the new study is a logical analysis of what the ocean system might be like in the future. “If these storms can really change course, that could have a significant impact on Gulf Streams and ocean circulation,” he said. That’s important because the Gulf Stream helps moderate temperatures in Britain and southern Europe, which would be much colder if it were slowed or stopped.
In the United States, coastlines have suffered 19 qualifying tropical storms billion-dollar disasters from the years 2010 to 2020, with a total loss of $480 billion, adjusted for inflation. Slow-moving storms will likely drive prices higher, and that worries some state and local officials. Norfolk and the area around Hampton Roads, Virginia are home to the world’s largest naval base, and rising sea levels have caused daytime flood in many neighborhoods during the past 15 years.
