By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A prestigious “Win and You’re In” matchup for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is taking place at opposite ends of the country this Saturday.
Let’s dive in and beat both races:
Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar
Any analysis of the Pacific Classic must begin by acknowledging that # 5 Flight path is a monster of nature with a world of talent and potential. Three of his four wins (including beating Malibu Rank 1) have been achieved by double-digit returns and his lone start so far in 2022 has seen Flightline overcame the odds to beat 1st place winner Happy Saver in six long runs at Metropolitan H . (G1).
But Flightline will face new challenges in Pacific Classic. He has never run more than a mile and is yet to finish a two-legged race, so stretching over 1 1/4 miles is uncharted territory. Flightline’s dazzling talent and form may make up for his lack of long-running experience, but his odds of 1-5 at dawn were a bit hard to swallow.
We will try to beat Flightline with #2 Country Grammer, who twice won the 1 1/4 mile race. The five-year-old son of winner Belmont S. (G1) Tonalist scored his first win of this trip in the 2021 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in Santa Anita, fighting tenaciously to win by head. #3 Royal Ship and #4 Express train. Even better, Country Grammer delivered a powerful shot to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) earlier this year in Dubai, including the 1st place winners Hot Rod Charlie and Life Is Good among his defeated rivals.
It is important to note that the Country Grammer is not a winning machine that assembles a long series of consecutive wins. The Hollywood Gold Cup and the Dubai World Cup both marked the second start of a cycle for Country Grammer, and in both cases he finished second in the run-up to the competition.
We’re highlighting this trend because Country Grammer recently finished its post-Dubai layoff with a runner-up finish behind Royal Ship at 1 1/16 mile San Diego H. (G2) in Del Mar . It’s not the best At first sight, Country Grammer is looking to continue its efforts to surpass that endeavor. He’s been in an encouraging trio of workouts since the battle of San Diego (including a six-shot bullet that extends at 1:12 1/5), and stretches out over 1 1/4 miles can carry. giving Country Grammer the edge he needed to annoy Flightline.
Option
First: Country Grammer
Monday: Flight route
Tuesday: Royal Ship
Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in Saratoga
From top to bottom, the quality of the horses participating in the 1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup is impressive. Yes, there’s only one Rank 1 winner on this list, but seven of the eight entrants have won at graded stakes, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jockey Club Gold Cup create Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.
The hard part is deciding what to do with #2 Olympiad. The talented four-year-old has been a force to be reckoned with in the first half of this year, with five wins in a row. With impressive stability, he won Mineshaft S. (G3), New Orleans Classic (G2), Alysheba S. (G2) and Stephen Foster S. (G2) with margins ranging from two lengths to 2 1/2 lengths, same way to beat Class 1 winners Happy Saver and #5 Americanrevolution.
But the Olympiad fell short of expectations at Whitney S. (G1) in Saratoga last month, his 1st grade debut. He tracked the pace as usual, but was empty on the long bend and down the house, weakening to finish in fourth at 9 1/4 the length behind Life Is Good, Happy Saver and Hot Rod Charlie.
Considering the Olympiad beat Happy Saver with ease at Alysheba, it’s safe to say the Olympiad ran under his best form at the Whitney. The question is, why? No obvious reason emerged, other than the fact that the main Saratoga track was slow and tiring at the start of the meeting. It sped up a bit, which could help the Olympiad recover, especially if he warrants an easy ride to stalk #1 Tax and #3 Unprocessed through a modest pace.
But instead of looking to the Olympiad to return to the 2-1 light line he loved on his first start of more than 1 1/4 mile… we’ll try to work out a bit of discomfort. with beautiful hybridization #6 First Captain.
The son of Curlin in the long-running AP Indy mare America, First Captain was bred to thrive in classic distance racing. He certainly demonstrated this ability in the 1 3/16 mile Pimlico Special (G3) 1 3/16 mile in the spring, sprinting the last three sixteen miles in intervals: 17 2/5 (5.8 seconds every ten). six!) To win the gap .
The first captain showed a similar move in the Suburban S. (G2) at Belmont Park two months ago, charging the last quarter of a mile between: 23.77 to finish second with a head-to-head. # 8 Dynamic One. Both Pimlico Special and Suburban have slow early sequences, but the ending sequences that First Captain posted are uncommon regardless of early pace.
I should stop for a moment and admit that Dynamic One ran a better race than First Captain in Suburban, finishing further behind at slow pace for the win. But First Captain has started less, and I don’t think we’ve seen the limit of his potential. Trainee Shug McGaughey burned out 5 clamps in one bullet: 59 4/5 in Saratoga last month and may be trying his best at the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Option
First: First Captain
Monday: Olympiad
Tuesday: Dynamic One
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Pacific Classic Gold Cup and Jockey Club?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
