“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
March is almost here, which means the NCAA Tournament is literally around the corner.
Reigning national champion Connecticut looks to be the best team in the nation, but Houston is currently No. 1 in both the AP Poll and KenPom Ratings.
When it comes to betting on the tourney, we’ve seen anything can happen, hence why we call it March Madness.
So, let’s dive into a couple of buy-low candidates I like who have the potential to win it all.
Auburn 20-1
There’s a bit of a disconnect between the polls — where Auburn is 11th — and advanced metrics, as the Tigers are fifth in Ken Pom and seventh in BPI. Right now, Auburn is on that No. 3 or No. 4 seed line, and if I’m a top seed, this is the last team I’d want to see in the Sweet 16.
The Tigers are athletic and deep and have an elite talent in Johni Broome. They also can defend, as they have the top two-point field goal defense in the country. Some have nicked Auburn’s non-conference schedule and its ability to win a road game, but remember, come tournament time, nobody is playing a home game. So, I think that’s a tad overrated.
Bruce Pearl has taken this program to the Final Four once, and it would not be a surprise if a trip to Arizona was in the cards this season.
PICK: Auburn (+2000) to win men’s college basketball title
Kentucky 25-1
The Wildcats are young, struggle on defense, have lost to LSU, UNC Wilmington and needed overtime to beat Saint Joseph’s. But they’ve shown they can beat teams like Auburn and Alabama and have so much tempting offensive talent.
Maybe the midseason struggles have allowed John Calipari to get his team to heed his messages and finally reach its potential. If Kentucky hits its threes, it can reach the Final Four and cut down the nets. If it doesn’t, it could be on the wrong end of a 3-14 or 4-13 upset.
But at this price, I’m willing to find out — especially since I’m against many shorter-priced teams like Arizona and Purdue.
PICK: Kentucky (+2500) to win men’s college basketball title
TCU 75-1
The overall depth of the Big 12 has the Horned Frogs right around .500 in the league. However, make no mistake — this team will give an unfamiliar non-conference foe trouble in a few weeks.
Over the last two years, TCU took top seeds in Arizona and Gonzaga to the brink in the second round and nearly reached the Sweet 16.
This is an experienced team with a high ceiling, as evidenced by wins over Houston and at Baylor this season. The team also suffered an agonizingly close loss at Kansas. So many of these teams on the top couple of seed lines have big flaws.
I’ll be looking to take advantage of a good price with a team like TCU and hopefully be able to have a ticket to work off if it reaches the Final Four.
PICK: TCU (+7500) to win men’s college basketball title
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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