After an American fighter jet shot down a Chinese balloon flying over the United States, the reaction from Beijing — defensive, angry, but wary of its options — illustrated the challenges. challenges China’s leader, Xi Jinping, faces as he tries to stabilize relations while giving little, if any, ground.
Hours after the hot air balloon was hit by a Sidewinder missile and crashed into the waters off South Carolina, China’s Foreign Ministry announced its “strong grievances and objections” and asserted that The airship was a civilian research airship that was blown off course. fierce winds. The department said Washington, not Beijing, violated the rules.
“The Chinese side clearly demands that the United States deal with this matter appropriately in a calm, professional and restrained manner,” he said. said statement from the Chinese ministry on Sunday. “The US insistence on the use of armed force is clearly an overreaction.”
Chinese officials have prepared to host US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken for talks this week in Beijing aimed at resolving tensions over a range of issues: barriers and technology bans , Western opposition to China’s hardline policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and US support for Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing demands acceptance of reunification. Mr. Blinken withdraw from China tripangry quotes on balloons.
Beijing’s response to bipartisan outrage in the United States over high-altitude hot air balloons shows that Chinese leaders are perplexed that the talks scheduled in Beijing have been thwarted by what they describe as an innocent mistake. But China also hinted that it could somehow retaliate against the US military’s actions: the State Department noted that it “reserved the right to respond further”.
China’s Ministry of National Defense, a spokesman for the military, also called the shooting down of the balloon an “overreaction”.
“We solemnly oppose the actions of the United States and reserve the right to use necessary measures to resolve similar situations,” the Defense Department said in a two-sentence statement.
Adjusting China’s response will be difficult for Xi.
“China is in a position to be,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of international politics at Georgetown University who served as President Barack Obama’s top adviser on Asia-Pacific affairs. Geopolitics is difficult. “They were caught red-handed with nowhere to go. And while they want to improve relations with many great powers, mainly the United States.”
China’s internet — often a resonator of nationalist sentiments — echoes calls for Beijing to stand up to the United States over the ballooning. And even if Xi and other Chinese Communist Party leaders can ignore public pressure, their own thorny pride may require some symbolic countermeasures. to save face.
But Mr. Xi is preoccupied with domestic tensions and may want to avoid another round of tit-for-tat confrontation with the Biden administration. China’s economy is starving after Xi abruptly abandoned strict “Covid-free” policies, and the government is also trying to defuse a long-term property crisis. Tightening US restrictions on sales of advanced technology to China, especially advanced semiconductors, could hurt Chinese companies and Mr. Xi’s innovation plans.
since the beginning third five-year term As party leader in October, Mr. Xi tried to defuse tensions with Western countries — including the United States, Australia and European powers — concerned that they were uniting into an alliance. firmer than China’s commitment to containment.
Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, said of the downing of the balloon: “It would be a very poor strategic move by China to really make it big. “. . “The more they panted, the less believable their story that this was a civilian weather balloon was blown off course.”
Despite mentioning possible further actions, the Chinese government’s response to the downing of the balloon also implied that it did not want to prolong the dispute. The wording choices in the State Department statement hint that Beijing can continue to defend its actions and deny that the balloons are a means of spying, while also refraining from potentially dangerous responses. may escalate the dispute.
Notably, China’s statement accuses the US of violating international rules by shooting down the hot air balloon, but does not mention any violations of international law. China also said that it would “protect the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises related” to the balloon, which could help it present evidence that the government was not directly involved in the launch. hot air balloon.
The wording “reflects that the State Department does not believe that the release of a balloon is a clear violation of the law,” Julian Kua law professor at Hofstra University, who studies China’s role in international law, wrote in an email in response to questions.
“The department will say if something is against international law, so it’s important they didn’t say that here,” he said.
“Moreover, they need to think about their own interests in case the US starts sending balloons or drones into China,” he added. “If they push too hard here, that would undermine a future legal argument they may need to make.”
Some in China are calling for a tougher response. After Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan last year, many Chinese online said they were angry that the Chinese air force did not – as a commentator. The famous commentator said it was possible – forced attempt. take her plane. This time too, some voices on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media site, say their leaders should be tougher; Maybe, one belligerent commenter saidby shooting down an American plane.
China’s leaders have immense power to guide or suppress nationalist animosities, and Xi in particular has removed space for spontaneous protests, so there is little the possibility of that anger pushing them into provocation. Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in eastern China, said Blinken called Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, about canceling a visit to Beijing. , indicating that both parties want to continue communication.
But the fracturing relationship between Beijing and Washington could become much more strained if Kevin McCarthy, the new speaker of the House of Representatives, visits Taiwan. McCarthy had previously said he might visit the island when he assumed his role, to show Washington’s support for Taiwan in the face of threats from China, but he has not announced any details. any solid plan.
“China will never tell me where I can and can’t go,” McCarthy told reporters last week. “But I don’t have any schedule right now.”
Professor Zhu said that even if the ballooning crisis were to end quickly, it shows how low confidence levels have dropped from the thaw that began when “ping-pong diplomacy” helped pave the way for relations in the early 1970s. At that time, American table tennis players visited China to play a series of matches that helped defuse animosity for decades.
“More than 50 years ago, the thaw in our relationship began with ping-pong diplomacy,” said Professor Zhu, echoing a quip that has gone viral on Chinese internet. “It was a small ball that started it, and now our relationship is in trouble because of a big ball or a balloon. I never expected this metaphor to happen.
