California’s carbon reduction efforts may be thwarted by climate change itself – Can you accept that?
UCI study: Higher temperatures will limit ecosystem’s role in removing CO2 from the atmosphere
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE
CREDIT: SHANE COFFIELD / UCI
Irvine, Calif., July 22, 2021 – To meet an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, California policymakers are relying in part on forests and shrublands to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, but researchers at the University of California, Irvine warn that future climate change could limit the ecosystem’s ability to perform this service.
In an article published today in the journal American Geophysical Union Progress AGUUCI Earth system scientists emphasize that rising temperatures and uncertain precipitation will reduce California’s natural carbon storage capacity by up to 16% under extreme climate projections and nearly 9% under scenarios. more peaceful.
Lead author Shane Coffield, PhD, UCI said: “This work highlights the conundrum that climate change poses for the state of California. candidate in earth system science. “We need forests and other wooded areas to provide a ‘natural climate solution’ to remove carbon dioxide from the air, but heat and drought are caused by the problem itself. that we are trying to solve can make it more difficult to achieve our goals. target.”
Trees and plants absorb CO2 from the atmosphere as they photosynthesize, and some of the carbon is eventually stored in their biomass or soil. California’s climate strategy depends in part on increasing carbon storage to offset some emissions from transportation, power generation and other sources. The combination of this natural carbon sequestration system and green energy promotion measures is expected to help the state achieve its goal of net zero carbon contribution to the environment by 2045.
But UCI scientists say a more aggressive approach may be needed to cut emissions.
“The emissions scenario we follow will have a major impact on the storage potential,” said co-author James Randerson, who holds the Ralph J. & Carol M. Cicerone Chair in Earth System Science at UCI. carbon in our forests. “A more moderate emissions scenario in which we switch to more renewable energy sources would result in about half of the carbon in the ecosystem. [sequestration] losses compared to a more extreme emissions scenario.”
Coffield said that current climate models do not agree on California’s future precipitation, but it is likely that the northern part of the state will be wetter and the southern part drier. He also said that coastal areas of Central and Northern California as well as low- and mid-altitude mountain areas – sites with major compensation projects – are more likely to lose some capacity. their carbon absorption over the next few decades.
In addition, the researchers were able to estimate the impact of climate change on specific tree species. They predict that coastal redwoods will be restricted to the far northern part of their range by the end of this century, and that hotter, drier conditions will favor oaks in place of conifers. .
While the study uses statistical modeling to look at the future of the state’s ecosystems, the study also highlights the importance of drought and wildfires today as the primary mechanical cause of her loss. carbon formation. Other studies have estimated that the 2012-2015 drought killed more than 40% of Ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada. Another problem the researchers describe is the loss of trees due to worsening wildfires in California.
“We hope that this work will inform climate and land management policies so that steps can be taken to protect existing carbon stocks and tree species in these regions,” said Randerson. locations most vulnerable to climate change. “Effective management of fire risk is essential to limit carbon [sequestration] losses across the state.
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Joining Coffield and Randerson on this project is Kyle Hemes, from the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University; Charles Koven, from the Department of Climate & Ecosystem Sciences at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; and Michael Goulden, UCI professor of Earth system science and ecology & evolutionary biology. The research received funding from the National Science Foundation, UC’s National Laboratory Fee Research Program, and the California Strategic Growth Council’s Climate Change Research Program.
About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UCI is the youngest member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and is ranked among the nation’s top 10 public universities by US News & World Report. The campus has produced three Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, top research, innovation, and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UCI has more than 36,000 students and offers 224 degree programs. It is located in one of the safest and most economically vibrant communities in the world and is Orange County’s second largest employer, contributing $7 billion annually to the local economy. and $8 billion statewide. To know more about UCI, visit http://www.
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