Despite growing partisanship in the crypto industry, bitcoin will thrive in the long term regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.
This is a view many cryptocurrency investors are adopting, as the wave of optimism fueled by former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto overtures this summer begins to subside.
“Do I think we’ll hit six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll hit six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, director of private client and family office at Swan Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has always been an investment that has deeper roots in the financial and monetary profiles of nations, sovereign nations, and the United States,” Lubka added. “No candidate can change that.”
James Davies, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Crypto Valley Exchange, said fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow limit the price of bitcoin or push it lower are overblown. Crypto startups may face more challenges, but the industry will continue to fight to move forward and grow, he noted. Bitcoin has become more institutionalized this year with the launch of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
“Some of our communities… have become echo chambers and believe that the sky is going to fall if one side or the other wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the markets are very strong, they are not US-centric, and they do not react negatively to major events on either side” of the partisan divide.
“This is about opportunities and regulations for users in the United States, not[the] “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to mobilize both sides, engage with both sides, and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a big ecosystem, we can’t be biased.”
Risk of exaggeration
Lubka agreed that some observers “overstate the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry has experienced under a Biden administration. However, he added, “all the signs we’re seeing with Harris consistently point to a de-escalation” of Biden-era crypto rhetoric.
“The election outcome will have minimal impact on bitcoin’s performance over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisory firm 401 Financial. “There are still a lot of companies moving forward with ETFs, there’s a rate cut coming, and retail trading in centralized custodians is low. [It] It will certainly be more difficult for young startups, but as a quality, growing institutional asset, it will continue to prove its worth regardless of who is in charge.”
Bitcoin has been trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after hitting an all-time high above $73,000 in March. Investors had widely expected prices to remain in this lull until U.S. voters decided on the next president. However, recent election news has had less of an impact on bitcoin prices, which have been more influenced by macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin fell about 3% after Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and Trump, although investors attributed the decline to an interest rate update in Japan and some positioning around U.S. inflation data for August released Wednesday morning.
Partisan sentiment is on the rise
In recent months, there has been speculation that the election would act as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin – with many describing the possibility of Trump winning a second term as a boon for the industry. For example, former president, spoke at the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July in Nashvilleand ensure that references are given priority. in the Republican Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said How to invest in Trump’s chances of winning the presidency is through bitcoin, adding that if he wins on November 5, the cryptocurrency could surge to a new all-time high of around $80,000. However, a Harris win could push bitcoin to $40,000, Bernstein said.
“If Trump wins in November, is there going to be an immediate surge? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, is there going to be some immediate selling pressure? That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But in the medium term, I don’t think that’s the driving force,” said Swan Bitcoin’s Lubka.
Vice President Harris has not shared her public views on cryptocurrencies, but some in the industry are concerned that she is hostile to cryptocurrencies and shares the views of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, who are seen as stifling crypto adoption.
“There hasn’t been a clear statement, but there’s been a bad history under the Biden administration… so I understand why people are paying attention to this,” Lubka said.
Despite concerns over the Biden administration’s stance on bitcoin, “I want to remind investors … that bitcoin has done very well” under the current administration, Lubka added. It “has been one of the most successful assets in the world during a period when everyone was against it. Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin throughout its entire history, and it has done extremely well.”
Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in all but three years since 2012.
