Oklahoma State No. 5 meets Baylor No. 9 in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. The match will be televised on ABC.
Oklahoma State (11-1) is well positioned to enter the College Football Playoff Round with a win. Mike Gundy has done it with a defensive allowable 281.4 yards per game. The Cowboys broke a six-game losing streak to rivals Oklahoma last week and could slip into a fourth playoff spot with a conference championship.
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Baylor (10-2) will act as a spoiler under second-year coach Dave Aranda. The Bears ranked eighth in FBS with a pounding attack speed of up to 227.4 yards per game. Full-back Gerry Bohanon (hamstring) remains a question mark for the game. The bears lost their only Big 12 championship win in 2019.
The early warm-up makes it the kick-start for Saturday’s championship. With that in mind, here’s everything you need to know about betting on Cowboys and Bears.
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Odds between Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
- Transmitted: Oklahoma State -4.5
- On lower: 46.5
- Cash flow: Oklahoma State -225, Baylor +180
Three trends to know
– The Cowboys have been kind to bettors this season. Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS and includes a 6-1 ATS record with a single-digit difference. The line was -3.5 when the Cowboys beat Baylor 24-14 on October 2.
– Oklahoma State has won the last 2 times with a difference score, but the series of matches is relatively even. The Cowboys and Bears have split 12 meetings since 2010.
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– The Bears this season are 8-4 ATS under Aranda, and they are 3-1 S/U and 3-1 ATS are underdogs. The only loss belonged to the State of Oklahoma.
Three things to see
– Will Bohanon play? Aranda was hard of hearing when discussing Bohanon’s condition. The junior quarterback missed last week’s game against Texas Tech, and reserve Blake Sharpen came through for 254 yards and two TDs into his place. Bohanon was limited to a total of 186 yards in his first meeting with Oklahoma State, and the Bears averaged just 3.7 yards per take.
– Oklahoma State plays mouth-smashing? That’s what they did in the last meeting. Jaylen Warren has 36 125-yard executions and a pair of TDs. Spencer Sanders adds 76 yards of charge, but he also throws three interceptions. Warren has averaged 16.5 carries in the Cowboys’ last six games. This is like a game where he can have between 25-30 rush attempts. Oklahoma State also averaged 3.7 yards per career in their most recent encounter, they only added 30 more.
– Chess match. Baylor Offensive Coordinator Jeff Grimes and Oklahoma State Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles were among five finalists for the Broyles Award, the award given to a row assistant coach head of FBS. Knowles won the first battle. What tweaks will Grimes make to keep the Bears rampage going, especially if Bohanon is eliminated? Oklahoma has a defensive trio with at least six sieges: Collin Oliver (9.5 bags), Devin Harper (6.0 bags) and Brock Martin (6.0 bags).
Important Stats
We covered Oklahoma State’s third defense against Bedlam last week, and the Sooners were 5 out of 18 who fell in third. Oklahoma State limits competitors to a conversion rate of 24.7% from third or less, which is the best rate in FBS. Baylor is not far behind with 12th place with a rate of 32.1%. In terms of offense, the State of Oklahoma ranked 43rd with 42.7% and Baylor ranked 54th with 41.6%.
Predictions of Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Bohanon’s status will be a plot point, but it may not matter. Oklahoma State will be based on the running game with Sanders and Warren. Baylor needs to get Abram Smith on track in this installment, and they’re going to have a few new wrinkles in the passing game. If Sanders avoids the first leg, then Oklahoma State will be able to take the lead. That would be the difference in the game. Will it be the difference for the final playoff spot?
The last point: Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 23
