Are there embarrassingly failed predictions that have made climate scientists wary? – Watts Up With That?
Essays by Eric Worrall
“…It is difficult to predict whether changes in storm formation and behavior pose a risk to Australia…”
Tropical cyclones in Australia: How severe are they and what impact will climate change have on them?
By Emily Bennett 7:09 am on December 11, 2022
Tropic tornado killed hundreds Australian and caused billions of dollars in damage – and we were warned they were only going to get worse.
With another hurricane season approaching, what will happen in our region in the coming months?
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Is the number of tornadoes predicted to increase due to climate change?
The total number of storms in Australia is predicted to decrease – but that’s not the whole story.
Climate models forecast an increase in the incidence of intense storms, with stronger winds and higher rainfall, according to the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.
University of Melbourne expert Professor Kevin Walsh agrees with this model.
“The most likely outcome for the frequency of future tropical cyclones in the Australian region is a slight decrease,” said Walsh.
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It is difficult to predict whether changes in storm formation and behavior pose a risk to Australiaaccording to Walsh.
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“Maybe is Tropical cyclone could strike a little further south than nowbut the most vulnerable areas will remain the more densely populated areas on tropical coasts,” he said.
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This is not the only caution we have seen recently. Who could forget Professor Pitman’s revelation that climate science can’t tell us how little or how much drought will happen? Although Pitman later qualified his statement “There is no link between climate change and drought”, affirms what he meant to say is “do not have straight link between climate change and drought”.
From time to time, we still get a few interesting scholars who are wary of the wind – like the UNSW scholar Dr. Clara StephensWho 2020 predictions “… even if we have heavier rains in the future, they won’t necessarily create the floods we rely on to fill dams …”.
Bad Times Clara – 2022 is a year of extreme rain and floodsthanks a rare La Nina triples. Surely Clara meant starting in 2023, right?
Of course, climate scientists have quick to blame 2022 rainfall on climate change.
Don’t get distracted by all this apparent contradiction. Climate change is such a stable science, in 2021 Naomi Oreskes calls for cutting off funding for WG1, so that more resources can be directed towards mitigation efforts. If climate science is not dealt with like this, climate scientists will create all sorts of things incorrect and Totally wrong prediction.
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