By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Every year around this time, I analyze a potential Kentucky Derby and determine if a fast or slow pace is likely to play out in “Running for the Roses”.
Most of the time, it’s not that difficult. Sometimes the Derby will play out in a way that defies pre-race predictions, but more often it follows the expected scenario. Last year, I rated the winner of the UAE Derby (G2) Summer Is Tomorrow as the most likely to have the top speed lead and noted the abundance of other speed horses in the field, concluding Ended my analysis with “I believe it’s very likely that we’ll see a late runner cross the finish line for the first time since Orb in 2013.”
My actual Kentucky Derby picks turned out to be a bit disappointing (top pick Mo Donegal finished fifth), but I had the right idea of pace. Summer Is Tomorrow recorded the fastest opening quarter mile (: 21.78) in Kentucky Derby history and 80-1 Rich Strike rose from 18th to take first place. The initial pace was so destructive, the top nine finishers all regrouped from at least half a dozen lengths behind.
But the Kentucky Derby numbers for 2023 will be different. Unlike last year, there was a significant lack of pace in the outlook area. And the memory of Rich Strike’s 80-1 defeat may encourage cautious riding tactics this year, in the hope of avoiding a repeat of last year’s speed slump.
Go through the list of Kentucky Derby contenders for 2023, big names like Florida Derby (G1) winners ForteHero Santa Anita Derby (G1) Realistic moveArkansas Derby winner (G1)
angel of the empireBlue Grass (G1) winner Tapit Triceand Wood Memorial (G2) winner Lord Miles have all done their best with tracking or rallying tactics. None of those five have ever set the pace.
The same can be said about the winner of Gotham (G3) raise CainHoly Bull (G3) hero Missiles canWithers winner (G3) impressionsResurrection Star runner-up (G2) ThunderSunland Derby winner (G3) Wild On IceChampagne (G1) hero Blazing SevensLouisiana Derby runner-up (G2) disarmSanta Anita Derby (G1) finished in third place peelerand the team finished third in the UAE Derby (G2) continue. Some of them showed tactical speed, especially Wild On Ice. But no one set the pace in any of the races.
Two Phil broke his maiden style and head-to-head gate as a teenager, but since then he’s been a late runner, rallying from seventh to dominate Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3 ) in the most recent start. The same transformation has worked wonders for confidence game in The Rebel (G2); after scoring its first two wins in a head-to-head portal fashion, Confident Games tackled the average pack in Rebel (6 1/2 pace) before rallying to win the show. Best performance of his career.
magician took the lead from start to finish in his first seven-long sprint at Gulfstream Park, but a slow start in the Florida Derby (G1) left him with his best performance to date. Good Magic’s son bravely rose from last place in the 12-man field to runner-up behind Forte.
That leaves five horses among the fastest in the Kentucky Derby field: sotogake skin, Kingsbarns,
Verification in progress, regenerationAnd Jace’s Road. Five accelerators may seem like enough to guarantee fast speeds, but dig a little deeper, and some people’s speed credentials look less appealing.
Take Kingsbarns as an example. That’s right, he led from start to finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), winning 3 1/2. But the initial speed is extremely slow, with Kingsbarns scaling to :24.71, :49.60 and 1:14.69. Even a slow-paced Kentucky Derby goes faster than that, so Kingsbarns can’t seem to prevail against Churchill Downs. He’s won his first two games after placing fourth and third in primetime and may well outstrip his early lead in the Kentucky Derby.
A similar fate could befall Jace’s Road, who watched the slow pace of the Louisiana Derby from second place. Jace’s Road set the pace once in six starts, hooking up Gun Runner’s S. line at Fair Grounds after overcoming insignificant fractions of :24.46, :48,18 and 1:12, 54. Unless he’s riding aggressively, Jace’s Road probably isn’t fast enough to force a speed boost in the Kentucky Derby.
Verify sitting in a similar boat. His lone pace-setting attempt came when he sprinted for the first six times at Saratoga last summer. He used track tactics in four of his next five starts, including finishing second in Blue Grass (G1). Verification looks like it will secure a striker spot in the Kentucky Derby, but to see him take the lead and tie the matter down would come as a surprise.
Which brings us to Reincarnation, who tracked and boosted the pace in the Arkansas Derby before continuing to finish in third. Taking the lead might be the best strategy for Reborn, who has been leading from start to finish in both of his career victories, including the battle of Sham (G3), in which he dueled. doubles with fast fractions :22.28, :45.57 and 1:09.55. It’s encouraging to note that Reincarnation will be ridden by John Velazquez, the Hall of Fame racer who has guided Authentic and Medina Spirit to consecutive wins in the 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derbys. (Medina Spirit was later disqualified due to a positive drug test after the race remains controversial.)
I would rate Reborn as the man most likely to lead the Kentucky Derby if it weren’t for Derma Sotogake’s presence. Although the Japanese pony is versatile in terms of running style, the ample pace it displayed in dominating the UAE Derby (G2) by a distance of 5 and a half suggests that the pre-run at Churchill Downs could be. is its best chance of success.
By fractional breakdown from Total Performance Data, Derma Sotogake ran the opening 100 meters (about half the distance) in the UAE Derby at a rate of: 08.76, an unsurprisingly slow rate. However, because the UAE Derby lacked the typical run-up distance in US racing.
But once Derma Sotogake sped up to racing speed, he ran like a rocket, sprinting the next 400 meters (about two seconds) in: 21.56. Then he ran another 400 meters with scale: 23.93 (for 800 meters with scale: 45.49) and another 400 meters with scale: 24.24 (good for 1,200 meters with scale 1: 09,73). Even after setting this dizzying pace, Derma Sotogake ran its final 600 meters with a strong record: 37.31 to record a brilliant final time of 1:55.81, a favorable result. advantage compared to the 2:03.25 that the old horses required to run the 2,000 meters in the Dubai World Cup (G1) on the same day. Subtract opening time: 08.76 from Derma Sotogake’s winning time, you’ll get a clock of 1:47.05 for 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 mile).
Now, all times listed are for metric distances, so they should be slightly faster than race times in yards. But even with this disclaimer, Derma Sotogake is shaping up to be one of the fastest of the few speed horses in the Kentucky Derby field, along with Reborn, the speedster. other importance. While both have the ability to run fast early on, the lack of pace in the field of prospects shows the intriguing possibility of Derma Sotogake and Reborn rushing ahead through modest fractions.
Indeed, that is my prediction for the 2023 Kentucky Derby: the modest pace set by Derma Sotogake and Rebirth. And if my conclusion is correct, it is very difficult to see Derma Sotogake on the first Saturday in May.
Now it’s your turn! How do you see the speed of the Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
