With Ukraine stepping up attacks deep inside Russian-controlled territory, there were fresh signs on Friday of turmoil and insecurity among Russia’s political and military leaders as they prepared to prepared for an impending Ukrainian attack, whose forces may not be prepared.
The latest manifestation of those tensions comes from Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, who used what he said were the new bloody corpses of his warriors as a backdrop. for another profanity against the top military commander. This is not the first time he has threatened to pull his fighters out of the long-warred Ukrainian city of Bakhmut if the Defense Ministry does not provide more ammunition.
It was just one of a series of events that contributed to the feeling that the war effort, and more broadly the country, was drifting, even as Russia prepared to celebrate the biggest military holiday of the year. next Tuesday.
two explosions shake the Kremlin at midnight on Wednesday, in what the Russians claimed was a failed Ukrainian drone strike. Denying the accusations, Ukraine said Russia may have done it to try to muster domestic support for a faltering war effort. Regardless of the culprit, it seems to many to be a sign of Kremlin weakness.
That parallels the attacks on several oil storage facilities, causing massive fires and train derailments near the border and far from the battlefield, all by drones. of Ukraine or sabotage.
Adding to the growing sense of anxiety, the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, strangely accused the United States in a interview about having started a war for territory before a volcanic explosion believed to be a cataclysm in Yellowstone National Park, which he believed would wipe out life in North America.
“Everybody is nervous, sitting on the edge of their seats,” said Clifford Kupchan, a Russia expert and president of Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk assessment firm. “You have the most venerable Russian military holiday that coincides with the upcoming Ukrainian attack and all these explosive events.”
Vacations, Victory Daycelebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, and over the past two decades, President Vladimir V. Putin has made the military spectacle the focal point of his rule.
Mr. Kupchan says that increases the stakes for Moscow. “It’s another cause of the high tension we’re seeing today and the anxiety on both sides,” he added.
Mr. Putin has kept quiet, as he has sometimes done in the past amid fast-moving events. But he himself is also under some pressure to rally the nation in his scheduled nationwide Victory Day speech.
“The longer Putin is silent, the more people will think that he is confused and doesn’t know what to do,” wrote Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin screenwriter turned political analyst, on Telegram.
In a sign of growing security concerns, Red Square, in the heart of Moscow, and the venue for viewing the elite grandstand during the parade, has been closed to the public since late. April. Many parades around the country are being scaled back or canceled.
Still, the Moscow exercises are expected to be a conventional, carefully choreographed show of power, even as the Russian military’s reputation has been tarnished. Some pro-war bloggers lashed out at the parade as usual, saying troops and weapons would be better deployed in Ukraine.
Part of that is because so much depends on the outcome of Ukraine’s anticipated effort.
“Many see this attack as decisive in the war,” said Dmitri Kuznets, who oversees the army. bloggers for Meduza, an independent Russian site in Riga, Latvia. “Everyone is very emotional and people’s interpretation depends on their political views.”
In a sign of growing anxiety, Russia’s occupation authorities on Friday ordered civilians living near the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine to leave their homes and businesses. Surname.
“I would like to emphasize that this is a mandatory measure to ensure the safety of residents living in the frontline territories,” Kremlin-appointed regional governor Yevgeny Balitsky said in a statement. . He also stated that he thought the attack had already begun.
Although many do not expect Ukraine to launch an offensive until spring mud As tensions escalated in mid-May, military analysts suggested that various posts inside Russia were designed to prevent Russia from moving more forces to the front lines.
Russia accused Ukraine of using two drones to target the Kremlin this week, saying it shot down them within the walls of the fortress. In addition to the attacks on oil storage facilities in Crimea, on Friday, drones hit an oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia, Russian state media reported.
Mr. Prigozhin has made similar comments before, but Putin does not want to publicly rebuke him or the top military leaders whom the mercenary leader has derided – Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and General Valery V. Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the armed forces.
Throughout the war, Prigozhin and his generals maneuvered the bureaucracy and the battlefield to gain the upper hand in directing the war and winning Putin’s trust. By contrast, the president has pitted the two sides against each other to ensure, analysts say, that neither side has accumulated too much power.
There was clearly pressure, spoken or not, for Mr. Prigozhin and other commanders to produce some results to brag about Victory Day. In one of the commands on Friday, Mr. Prigozhin said he was then supposed to take Bakhmut, but was prevented from doing so by “military officials” who cut off the supply of artillery shells a few days ago.
Mr. Prigozhin announced that his withdrawal will take place next Wednesday, the day after the holiday. The bloody video and his statements caused an uproar, with some critics accusing Mr Prigozhin of “blackmail”, while others praised his bravery. A pro-military blogger compared him to the movie hero “The Last Samurai”, a warrior willing to give his life “for the emperor to see”.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the belligerent leader of the Republic of Chechnya inside Russia, punished Mr. Prigozhin for displaying the corpses of his men to generate public outcry, and suggested the exhibition. told his men to replace Wagner mercenaries to get the job done in Bakhmut. He also criticized the Department of Defense over logistics and supply issues.
Mr Prigozhin’s threat to leave was not fully documented, seen as one of a series of hasty statements or a new attempt to get Mr. Putin’s attention.
There was no immediate official response, but an earlier outburst by Mr Prigozhin helped him acquire some of the weapons and recruits he wanted, though numbers remain murky.
Some Russian analysts said they expect the Defense Ministry to accommodate some of Prigozhin’s requests this time, as there are no ready alternatives for his estimated 10,000 troops in Bakhmut.
Both Ukrainian and US intelligence officials said they did not see Wagner’s forces suggest repositioning, and saw Mr Prigozhin’s comments more as a sign of chronic palace intrigue and bureaucratic maneuvering. in the Russian leadership.
“I really doubt that the Russians will withdraw from Bakhmut, so that is history,” Mr. Kupchan said.
Milana Mazaeva, Ivan Nechepurenko, Marc Santora, Julian Barnes And Matthew Mpoke Bigg contribution report.
