Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to AGU, a spike in demand for air conditioners could overwhelm the grid over the next decade.
U.S. household use of air conditioners could exceed electrical capacity over the next decade due to climate change.
via American Geophysical Union
Climate change will lead to increased use of air conditioners in the summer in the United States, potentially causing prolonged blackouts during hot summers, according to a new study of household-level demand. peak if the states do not expand capacity or improve performance.
The study predicts summer usage when global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, finds U.S. demand as a whole could grow by 8% at the lower end and 13% at the upper threshold. New research published in The Future of the EarthAGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research into the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
The IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment, human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s. If not significantly mitigated , the global temperature is likely to exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
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New research indicates that technological improvements in the performance of home air conditioning units could provide the extra cooling needed to achieve current levels of comfort after global temperatures rise. to 2.0 degrees without increasing electricity demand. Claims to increase efficiency from 1% to 8%, depending on existing state standards and expected increased demand, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma being the premium.
“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we’re doing or energy systems Susanne Benz, a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study.
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Read more: https://phys.org/news/2022-02-household-air-conditioning-electrical-capacity.html
Summary of the study;
Impacts of increased household use of air conditioners across the US in a warming climate
Renee Obringer, Roshanak Nateghi, Debora Maia-Silva, Sayanti Mukherjee, Vineeth CR, Douglas Brent McRoberts, Rohini Kumar
First published: December 29
abstract
Rising temperatures and an increase in heat waves have significantly increased the demand for air conditioning, a trend that is likely to continue into the future. However, the impact of anthropogenic warming on home air conditioners is largely ignored in the operation and planning of the energy grid. Here, by leveraging cutting-edge technology in machine learning and climate modelling, we see a significant increase in future residential air conditioning demand across the US – up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) of the global mean temperature. To offset this climate-induced demand, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of the air conditioner by 8% (± 4.5%) from the current level; Without this difficult technological endeavor, we estimate that some states would face a supply shortfall of up to 75 million “family days” (that’s almost half a month for every current household). at average) without air conditioning in a world 2.0°C warmer. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the United States would face a significant increase in the demand for air conditioning and, in the event of an inadequate supply, millions of people risk leaving millions without access to space cooling systems during periods of extreme heat. hard.
Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002434
Of course, research using RCP 8.5.
I think there will be an increase in energy usage, which could put serious pressure on the grid. Not because the temperature suddenly rises to absurd levels, but because the technological revolution / home robotics / AI will send our energy needs through the roof.
Either way, one thing’s for sure – the luxury virtues that signal non-renewable solutions have no place in a world of skyrocketing demand for reliable energy.
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