LUANDA, Angola – A new generation of Angolans, many disillusioned with their country’s political system and corruption, will vote for the first time on Wednesday, posing a challenge to a ruling party which has traditionally continued to present its dominance as a stable alternative to the country’s bloody past.
The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, a liberation army turned political party, is expected to win – as it has in the previous four elections. But while the results are unlikely to come as a surprise, analysts will be watching the margin closely for signs of the country’s political future.
Across southern Africa, historic political movements are falling out of favor with young urban voters, whose economic impediments are beginning to overwhelm the nostalgic rhetoric. In the Angolan capital Luanda, whose streets are named for war heroes, the majority of youth are unemployed, as are more than 30% of the population.
Half of voters in the country are under the age of 35. Those who find work in Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, work mainly in the informal sector, often as food vendors or motorcyclists.
This generation, dissatisfied with the ruling party, is more willing to speak up.
“This will be my first time going to the polls, and I can tell you, I made the decision very easily,” said Carlos Quitembe, 22, raising three fingers, a gesture hinting at his views. opposition party on the ballot.
The main opposition party, the National Alliance for the Governor General for Independence of Angola, or UNITA, was a wartime enemy of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA. The two sides were born as guerrilla movements that drove out the Portuguese colonialists in 1975 but turned against each other in a bitter civil war that ended in 2002.
UNITA has tried to brand itself as a party for urban voters. For the first time, it was led not by a veteran guerrilla, but by a respected veteran of exile, Adalberto Costa Júnior, who returned from Europe. and use social networks to build your base. Mr. Costa has joined forces with civil society groups, smaller opposition movements and disgruntled members of the ruling party with an anti-corruption ticket.
The opposition presented candidates who “represent an open mind for building the future, not as a partisan proposal but as solutions to the major problems facing Angola today.” ,” Mr. Costa said in an interview. That alliance, he said, is held together by the need to overhaul the electoral system in favor of the dominant party.
In Angola electoral system, voters cast a single ballot to choose their party of choice for provincial and national seats. The card-carrying members of the party decide the list of candidates, and the leader of the winning party becomes president.
President João Lourenço is seeking a second term, asking for more time to make good on his 2017 election promise to fight corruption and build the economy. A former guerrilla fighter who later became defense minister, Lourenço was selected as his successor by longtime President José Eduardo dos Santos. Immediately upon taking power, Mr. Lourenço rejected Mr. dos Santos, blaming his administration for Angola’s unstable economic condition. He prosecuted one of his children dos Santos for corruption and tried to charge another.
But as the economy stalled, this tactic began to backfire, as people directed their anger at Mr Lourenço, seeing his anti-corruption efforts as factional fighting rather than real reform. . Lourenço’s party is also based on nostalgia for Analysts say its glory years as a liberation movement. After Mr. dos Santos passed away last montha fight ensued between some of his adult children and his widow, government-backed, Where is his body buried?.
Lourenço’s office did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
His party, in power since 1975, controls the state and its budget. State media pay attention to the ruling party, while the constitutional court is full of judges who support the MPLA. This is why Angola’s elections are unlikely to be free or fair, said Borges Nhamirre, a consultant with the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies.
One June poll by Mudei Civic Movement, a citizen-based election monitoring group, finds the MPLA in 19th place percentage points after the opposition coalition, while an earlier poll of Afrobarometer continental research group shows the MPLA winning by the lowest margin ever.
In response, a state-owned broadcaster conducted its own poll, showing the ruling party far ahead of its opponents. In May, the MPLA majority in Congress passed a law restricting voting, forcing voting bodies to pay large sums of money for the purpose of ensuring their legitimacy.
Voter lists also include the names of those who have died, opposition groups and civil society groups say.
Adérito Malungo, who plans to vote in Luanda, said: “My brother and I were shocked to learn that our father, who passed away nine years ago, was registered to vote.
Any protest facing these irregularities is likely to face a bloody crackdown, according to scenarios outlined by security analysts, as the military and police are controlled. closely controlled by MPLA loyalists. Results will start trickling in within the first 24 hours after the vote, but it’s unclear when the final count will be announced.
Unlike in previous years, Angolans in the capital seem willing to talk about their political choices ahead of the election. On a weekday afternoon in Luanda, Mr Quitembe and two friends – all about to vote for the first time, all unemployed and all under 30 – discussed their options.
“Right now, I would rather work if someone kept their promise to create 500,000 jobs for young people,” said Martins Lourenço, 21, of the president’s 2017 campaign promise.
But the president still maintains some support.
Arminda Kisanga, 28, using the presidential moniker, said: “Things are pretty bad right now and I know it, but I think we should for the sake of the doubt and keep JLo, ‘ Arminda Kisanga, 28 years old, said. “These have not been easy years for him up there.”
Mr Quitembe mocked the party’s promises of reform. “Do you really believe these guys have stopped robbing us?” he asked smiling. “They just changed some people; all the same. “
Angola’s economy has been in recession since Lourenço took over as party leader in 2017 and then the country a year later. Under Mr. dos Santos, Angola experienced a post-war boom driven by oil and diamond exports. The country has continued to push ahead with infrastructure construction, building megaprojects like the new National Assembly, often with loans from Chinese banks.
As new skyscrapers appeared on Luanda’s skyline, slums around the city sprang up, creating an economically unequal society where the vast majority of the population lived below the poverty line. .
Last year, Angola’s public debt was 110% of its gross domestic product, said Francisco Paulo, an economist at Luanda. Mr. Paulo said years of mismanagement by the state-owned oil company meant Angola missed out on the profits other oil producers made after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Recently built roads and bridges have deteriorated, increasing the cost of goods, as transportation is increasingly expensive, especially in rural areas. Lourenço’s previous election promises to root out corruption and overhaul the economy fell through.
“In terms of the economic outlook, there is no reason for people to vote for the MPLA again,” Mr. Paulo said.
But many people have benefited from the party.
Nova Cidade de Kilambaa housing project just outside Luanda, was once a feather in a government hat. In the decade since it opened, the project has fallen into disrepair.
However, some like Maura Gouveia, a 26-year-old engineering student and resident of the project, said she believes in party stability.
“I vote for continuity,” she said.
