It is now clear that August will be cooler than normal in this area.
British Columbia could also see very wet conditions and light rain extending to Washington later this week.
Overall this is very good news, this situation should significantly reduce the risk of wildfires for the rest of the summer.
First, let’s look at the total rainfall expected over the next ten days based on the European Centre forecast model.
Rainfall totals as of Thursday morning show light drizzle in western WA and heavier rainfall in BC and western Alberta
By Saturday morning, Canada’s weather turned noticeably wet, especially north of the Cascades.
By mid-next week, an approaching weather system will bring heavy rain to southwest BC and western Washington will see heavier rainfall.
And by the end of next week, only the Columbia Basin will be spared. Rainfall totals will be very high in southern Canada (several inches of rain).
The National Weather Service/NOAA model solutions are similar.
The shift to cooler, wetter weather will be due to the development of a persistent low pressure area just off our coast, illustrated by the upper layer (500-hPa, about 18,000 ft). The blue color represents a much lower altitude/pressure than normal….called close low in business
This persistent pattern will keep temperatures below normal for the rest of the month across the region. Weather.com is smartly predicting below normal temperatures for Seattle for the rest of the month, with a few showery days (see below). Not a single day is in the 80s or 90s.
Over the next 8-14 days, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting cooler and wetter than normal weather across most of our region.
With this forecast, the NW Interagency Wildfire Coordination Center is predicting a lower than normal wildfire risk next week. Water use in the region will decrease, as will the need for air conditioning — thus reducing energy use.
This summer is a yin and yang meteorological summer. June is cool, July is warm and August is cool.
