If the stock market had followed its historic pattern in a midterm election year, it would have bottomed out by now. There isn’t a single major consensus view, but some technical strategists see more turbulence for stocks even with a near-term bounce. Some also see upside potential in the fourth quarter. Historically over the medium term, stocks bottomed in October before ending the fourth quarter higher. “Usually, after October 9, you start to see some better performance,” said Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer. That day, the analyst said, was the average day the market bottomed out in the last eight years of midterms, going all the way back to 1990. Wald said he’s watching for a possible catalyst this week. . when 10-year rates are above 3.5%. That’s really what’s weighing on the market, the heaviest of the year,” Wald said. The 10-year benchmark is key to the stock market this year. Growth stocks and technology react negatively when yields rise. Wald said both the CPI and the Fed meeting could boost yields, at 3.88% on Monday. If the CPI does not rise as hot as expected, yields may fall. Yields move in the opposite direction of price. Wald said the positive thing is that the small-cap Russell 2000 price has held low. “The real big positive is how fluid the market has become,” said Wald. “It shows the market is trying to bottom out here… The setup is still there for a potential Q4 period.” The analyst believes a large-cap bottom comes in June and the next bottom could be less dramatic. “The bottoms of this market come in two phases,” he said. “First you have bangs, then you have groans… Now what we’re seeing is consistent with groans.” According to DataTrek Research, the S&P 500 is down 23.6% for the year, but only 9 days are responsible for the entire drop. DataTrek noted: “Most happened on/around CPI reports or Fed-related events. One related to Russia-Ukraine and only 2 related to disappointing corporate earnings. Traders. The epidemic may want to be cautious when looking at Thursday’s CPI report.” “Investors should moderate their expectations for the valuation of US equities; history shows this contract in times of high volatility.” Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 0.3% or 8.1% year over year, according to Dow Jones. This is lower than the 8.3 percent year-on-year reported in August. “We need that trigger, again lower interest rates,” Wald said. “Overall, our view is that the exchange rate market is dealing more with Fed policy and the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation than the actual threat of inflation. I expect CPI to continuing to decline as it has for three consecutive months, early year through year. What will lead to a change in Fed policy is the key question here,” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Securities. Friday’s drop sent the S&P 500 index back to summer lows. The technical indicators she is monitoring are sending mixed messages, with one of her indicators flashing a buy signal. “Because of the latter, there is still a good possibility of a relief rally. Initial resistance is near 3,914.” But she expects any rally to be a selling opportunity, amid a bear market. That means one test is 3,500. Mark Newton, global technical strategist at Fundstrat, said he expects the market could set to rebound in the next week or two. “Energy continues to perform quite well, while the Aerospace & Defense names are also growing. Bottom line, the risk/reward is increasing more positively in my opinion because of the risk. bearish looks very well defined at last Monday 10/3 lows,” he wrote in a note. “Unless $SPX 3584 is sold out, you are absolutely right to buy this sale, expecting next week’s CPI to go up/down.”