Banners reading ‘Ukraine’ and ‘NATO’ are seen at the NATO Summit venue in Vilnius, Lithuania on Sunday.
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Banners reading ‘Ukraine’ and ‘NATO’ are seen at the NATO Summit venue in Vilnius, Lithuania on Sunday.
Petras Malukas/AFP via Getty Images
Several pressing issues will be at the forefront and focus as leaders from Europe and North America gather in Vilnius, Lithuania for this week’s key NATO summit, including both the war in Ukraine and the formation of the alliance itself.
The meeting, which begins Tuesday, takes place against the backdrop of “slower than expected” counterattack, as described by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and its new attempt to join NATO. Union members agree that Ukraine can join final – but not as soon as Zelenskyy had hoped.
After months of urging European leaders to admit Ukraine to NATO, Zelenskyy admitted in June that it would “impossible” let it happen before the war is over. President biden make the same comment this weekend, told CNN that Ukraine is not ready to become a member, in part because it means NATO countries will be at war with Russia.
“I think we have to map out a reasonable path for Ukraine to qualify for NATO,” Biden said. “But I think it’s too early to say call for a vote right now, because there are other conditions that need to be met, including democratization and some of those issues.”
The Russian invasion also forced their two northern neighbors, Finland and Sweden, to Apply to join NATO last year.
Finland has cleared the necessary barriers to official join the alliance in April, this was the first summit as a full member of the alliance. But Türkiye (and, to a lesser extentHungary) blocked the Swedish bid over concerns that it was not doing enough to crack down on Kurdish fighters and others whom Turkey considers terrorist groups.
In a surprise announcement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Turkey could accept Sweden’s NATO membership if European countries “pave the way” for his country. join the European Union.
“As you pave the way for Turkey, we will pave the way for Sweden as we did for Finland,” he told reporters before leaving for Lithuania. Related press.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he supported Turkey’s ambition to join the EU, but that it was not one of the conditions Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed at the NATO summit this year. Last year in Madrid, AP reported. Sweden has already met those conditions, Mr Stoltenberg reiterated, adding that he thinks “there could still be a positive decision” on its membership at this week’s event.
Stoltenberg said at a Press Conference in Lithuania on Monday that he looks forward to Sweden joining NATO “as soon as possible” and will meet the leaders of Turkey and Sweden later in the day as a next step towards that process. And that’s one of many items on this week’s agenda.
“We will strengthen our deterrence and defense capabilities, including investing more,” he said. “We will increase our support for Ukraine and bring Ukraine closer to NATO. And we will work even more closely with our partners to support the rules-based international order.”
What will Türkiye do to get Sweden to join NATO?
The main Turkish justification for keep Sweden out of NATO is that it is harboring Kurdish separatists whom Türkiye has designated as terrorists.
Stockholm has strengthened its stance against the PKK (Kurdish militant group) and lifted restrictions on arms sales to Türkiye. The police also tried prevent Quran burning incidentbut the Swedish government says it cannot go any further.
“It would be politically difficult for any government to put restrictions on freedom of speech at the behest of Erdogan, who is running a country that currently doesn’t rank well when it comes to freedom of expression,” said Paul Levin, head of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, tell NPR.
Experts say likely other issues factoring in the holding – including the Turkish relationship with America
Turkey sees this as a moment of leverage, especially around acquiring the F-16 fighters it has long been trying to get from the US, NPR’s Report by Asma Khalid.
Biden said in May that he and Erdogan are negotiating a possible deal, which will require one person’s approval so far Reluctant Congress.
The two leaders discussed both issues – Sweden’s NATO membership and warplanes – in a phone call on Sunday, although Erdogan denied they were involved.
Biden and Erdogan are expected to meet face-to-face on the sidelines of the summit.
Christopher Skaluba of the Atlantic Council speak Morning version on Monday that Erdogan’s scheduled meetings with Biden and the Swedish prime minister could signal a willingness to move towards ratification – despite warning that even if he said so, it did not mean that is bound to happen.
He said it would be a “failure” if the summit ended without Sweden becoming a NATO member, or at least receiving a clear signal about when that would happen.
“Similarly, I think the issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership can be controversial,” Skaluba said. “And if we don’t leave the summit with a clear understanding of what that looks like, again, it will feel like a step backwards.”
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of their meeting in Vilnius on Monday.
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of their meeting in Vilnius on Monday.
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What does the path to membership in Ukraine look like?
The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO first appeared in 2008, when the member states agreed in principle.
“Over a decade later, the Russian invasion has made it more urgent and more likely,” Skaluba said.
“I think, really, the circumstances of the war made Ukraine say, ‘Hey, we really want to join as soon as possible, our future security can only be protected,'” he explained. by NATO’.
He said that NATO had not done much in the past 15 years to define Ukraine’s membership requirements. If Ukraine can’t join until the war is over, he added, it would at least want to leave the summit with a better understanding of what that path would look like.
Over the weekend, Zelenskyy said Ukraine should receive clear security guarantees in the meantime.
Biden seems to agree. He told CNN that if there was a cease-fire in the war, the US would be ready to provide Ukraine with the same security as it does for Israel – “providing weapons capabilities for the country to defend itself,” Khalid said. .
That would require congressional approval and could anger the Kremlin further, she added.
For their part, Ukrainians feel like they’ve been in limbo since 2008 and want the membership issue resolved as soon as possible.
“They say this lackluster background encouraged Russian leader Vladimir Putin to invade,” NPR’s Greg Myre tell Morning version. “He knows it will be too late to act if he waits until Ukraine actually joins NATO.”
Will countries increase defense spending?
NATO member commitment in 2014 that they will increase their minimum defense spending to 2% of their national GDP by 2024.
Only eight out of 31 countries have hit that goal so far: United States, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, United Kingdom, Estonia and Greece.
Stoltenberg, head of NATO, said during a visit to Washington last month that he expected allies to agree that the 2% target should be the bare minimum. (Biden expressed his support at the same press conference.)
“At the summit, the allies will make a more ambitious defense investment commitment, investing a minimum of 2% of GDP annually on defense,” said Stoltenberg. repeat on friday.
This statistic is not without controversy — especially in the United States, where then-president Donald Trump has spoken out. criticize other European countries for not paying extra. Generally speaking, some experts questionable because it evaluates countries’ economic efforts rather than military capabilities.
But it seems to have wide public support, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
NATO Public Opinion Study found that 74% of citizens in allied countries think that by 2022, defense spending should be maintained at current levels or increased, compared with 70% the previous year. Only 12% think less should be spent on defense.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at an event in Lviv, Ukraine on Saturday.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at an event in Lviv, Ukraine on Saturday.
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What will NATO do with China?
So far, China hasn’t been entirely absent from the conversation either. First, NATO leaders warned that the Ukraine scenario could be repeated in Taiwan.
Stoltenberg wrote in an article: Foreign Affair op-ed second publication.
He added that NATO does not see China as an adversary, stressing the importance of working together to address global challenges such as the nuclear threat and climate change.
Noting that the Chinese leader did not condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and instead increased economic and military cooperation, he also called on China to use “significant influence over Russia” to put an end to it. end the war in Ukraine.
Skaluba, of the Atlantic Council, said he thinks NATO is trying to figure out how Chinese investment in Europe is fueling national security concerns. For example, if China is investing in a port, can NATO somehow prevent military movement through that port during a crisis?
“Trying to better understand and connect better between the United States and its transatlantic and transatlantic allies is an important part of what we are trying to do this week in Vilnius,” he said. said more.
