Workers in Germany build a new pipeline to transport imported natural gas from a nearby liquefied natural gas facility. European countries are looking for new sources of natural gas, as they eliminate their own imports from Russia.
David Hecker / Getty Images
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David Hecker / Getty Images
Workers in Germany build a new pipeline to transport imported natural gas from a nearby liquefied natural gas facility. European countries are looking for new sources of natural gas, as they eliminate their own imports from Russia.
David Hecker / Getty Images
The world is still watching dangerous warming, according to a new report from Global Carbon Project. Emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to hit record levels this year, 50% higher than when the Industrial Revolution began.
New data comes as world leaders gather in COP27 Summit in Egypt. Negotiations are underway to curb warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. Beyond that, the world can see much more destructive storms and floodsheat waves and droughts.
“We’re dangerously close to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University who worked on the report compiled by scientists around the globe.
If emissions continue at current levels, there are only nine years left before exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Emissions are exploding again after the pandemic
Emissions to decrease by about 5% by 2020 as flights grounded by the pandemic and industrial activity slowed. But the following year, emissions from burning fossil fuels rose again by the same amount and are expected to increase 1% this year.
“It doesn’t sound like much, but that’s the equivalent of 100 million American cars a year in emissions,” Jackson said.
To reach zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and avoid extreme global warming, emissions will need to fall annually by roughly the amount they fell during the pandemic. The development of solar and wind power, now cheaper than fossil fuel projects in most cases, is helping to slow the rate of heat-trapped emissions.
“Renewables are still the bright spot,” Jackson said. “They swam through Covid swimmingly. There are some bright spots in the tram.”
The growth rate of fossil fuels has slowed in recent times. During the 2000s, it grew by about 3% per year. Over the past decade, fossil fuels have grown by only 0.5% per year.
War in Ukraine threatens to boost fossil fuels globally
With the war in Ukraine, many countries are scrambling to replace natural gas exports from Russia. Exporting natural gas abroad requires super-cooling it into liquefied natural gas, so it can be loaded onto ships. Once the ships reach their destination, the gas must be unloaded at special facilities, known as LNG terminals. According to a New report from Climate Action Trackera climate think tank, 26 new terminals have been announced in the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine.
Boosting natural gas could limit fossil fuel use for decades to come. According to the report, if the proposed terminals and those currently under construction worldwide come online, they could double emissions from liquefied natural gas by 2030. That could jeopardize any commitments governments make during the COP27 negotiations. To reach the world’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the International Energy Agency says it needs to be do not invest in new fossil fuel supplies.
Emissions go up in the US, down in China – but it won’t last
In the US, emissions are expected to increase by 1.5% this year. Coal power continues to decline, largely due to cheaper natural gas and renewables. However, oil use is increasing as air traffic continues to recover from the pandemic. Historically, the United States has been the largest cumulative emitter of greenhouse gases, taking into account all emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
Emissions are expected to drop by about 1% in the world’s largest emitter today, China. The continued pandemic shutdown has stifled economic activity there, but the biggest decline has come from slowing construction and development, as cement is a strong source of greenhouse gases.
With the war in Ukraine and inflation, Jackson says it’s hard to say how emissions will continue to rise again. But all indications are that the world has yet to move towards reducing emissions from fossil fuels.
“It’s a chaotic mess of the global economy and we really don’t know how emissions will resolve post-Covid because we haven’t had a normal year,” he said.
