In the third edition of our new weekly column, let’s break down some of the unexamined elements of this absurd season. We will first look at an undeniable trend in the freelance market, then the re-emergence of the large market group and another small trend that is growing undetected.
Hockey offers come to baseball
Between 2011 and 2013, three superstars — Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Robinson canoe – signed decades-long contracts that ran until their 40th birthday. No one else had signed such a contract until Trea Turner11-year, $300 million contract with Phillies in the first day of this month. His was quickly followed by two more, by Xander Bogaerts (11 years, 280 million USD) and Carlos Correa (13 years, $350 million, then 12 years, $315 million.)
Why the sudden rush? Clearly, Bryce HarperThe 13-year contract four years ago, which brought him past the age of 39, has influenced the industry. In allocating Harper’s $330 million over 13 years instead of 10, the Phillies cut nearly $8 million in annual luxury taxes. That makes their profligate spending of the past two winters all the more affordable to ownership. There have been nine contracts in the sport’s history spanning more than 10 years; seven of which have been agreed as of 2021.
Think of it more like a tax avoidance strategy than a strict scheme to rely on 40-year-old players. If $300 million is the price Turner asked to sign, Philadelphia’s 11-year payment would be much more reasonable than 8 years .
These tactics are not entirely new. National Hockey League franchises have been practicing them for nearly 15 years now, starting a few years after the league implemented a salary cap. Of course, the MLB has no cap, but many teams consider the luxury tax threshold an unofficial limit.
In fact, there was a recent baseball example on a lots of smaller scale. Before the 2018 season, Dodgers signed Chase Utley to a two-year, $2 million deal, although both parties plan to continue the partnership for only one more season. The second year halves the luxury tax figure, saving the Dodgers some money.
An interesting question is how far these deals can go. The Athletic reported that the Phillies offered Harper the same number for the first time in more than 15 years, and he negotiated a reduction to 13. Professional Baseball Tournament reserves the right to refuse transactions that are clearly tax-evading, so there is a limit here. It’s just not clear exactly what it could be. Shohei OhtaniThe 2023 free agency can tell us.
Cubs finally commit to a path
Why, childrens fans have been claiming ownership this winter, spending significant amounts of money to attract both Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman a year ago, what if they didn’t have a plan to replenish that free agent duo with more veteran talent?
That is a fair question. It’s worth wondering why the Cubs chose last winter to secure $156 million for two free agents when almost every year before that would have made more sense.
It is not one of the two transactions that seem terrible. Suzuki missed almost a third of the season, but did a great job when on the field. Stroman also suffered a number of injuries, but he threw the ball well enough when healthy to be able to opt out after the 2023 season.
Plus the deals don’t fit the Cubs’ current lineup. Obviously, the MLB’s point of view is non-trivial. The point is to win. And if you can’t win, or don’t want to spend enough to win, basically every other team has proven that the next best strategy is to lose (and save) enough that you can early. win.
Instead, the 2022 Cubs have won 5 or more wins by signing Suzuki and Stroman. That took them to a 74-win season. They will draft the 13th next summer instead of something like eighth or ninth. The $156 million funding will have a much stronger impact on the 2019 or 2020 Cubs, who are just a few players away from more serious or serious competitions. Instead, the Cubs choose the following action.
But in the end they did enough to justify their decision. In recent weeks, they have promised to pay nearly $70 million in 2023 payroll for Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Draw Smyly and Dansby Swansonand made long-term commitments worth nearly $250 million to the latter two players. Swanson, who is nearing the end of a career year, could push them over the disputed line. They need to get there sooner rather than later, based on these freestanding pickups.
Suzuki and Swanson will turn 29 in 2023. Stroman has an opt-out clause. Smith is 33 years old. Taillon is 31 years old and no longer throws as hard as before. Bellinger won’t turn 28 until the All-Star break, but it’s been a while since he’s been great. A few more immersive additions between now and Opening Day will help the Cubs profit from these investments.
Not only top players get paid
One of the freelance stories of the past decade has been the concentration of dollars at the top of the market. Often forced to choose between several similar offers, middle-class veterans make less money than they used to.
It doesn’t garner the same attention as countless deals spanning the decade, which is understandable, but it’s worth noting that teams are paying less for players this winter than they are. has become the standard.
Consider the case of a right-handed reliever Trevor May. Two years ago, he became the first notable free agent to sign with meet during the reign of Steve Cohen. He has just recorded consecutive outstanding seasons and thanks to his efforts, he has earned a two-year contract worth 15.5 million dollars.
Luckily just a free agent. He has struggled with injuries and underperformance in 2022, but he will be unlikely to have a pay cut in 2023. Oakland, of all the teams, agreed to pay him $7 million for next season. Or consider the catcher Omar Narvaez, who signed with the Mets for two years and $15 million after a bad 2022 season. Or consider the 42-year-old left-hander rich hillsworse in 2022 than in 2021, but will receive a $3 million increase from Pittsburgh in 2023.
Many players are making more money this winter.
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Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and LA Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of “How to Beat a Broken Game.” Follow him on Twitter at @pedromoura.
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