Open sports bettors often like to bet on which team or player will win. They also like to bet less to win more. And, there is nothing wrong with that.
But if you can overcome those mental barriers, you have a chance to make a profit.
Famous professional bettor Rufus Peabody live for those opportunities.
During last week’s Open Championship, as part of his betting portfolio, he placed nearly $2 million in eight bets, one on each player. Are not to win Tournaments.
“My strategy is simple: Bet when we have an edge,” says Peabody. “We find an edge when betting golfers at 300/1 odds, as well as betting at 300/1 odds. These bets have very different risk/reward profiles, but both can help grow your bankroll.”
An example of these types of bets is illustrated by Peabody’s six-figure bet on Tiger Woods failed to win the British Open.
The Unabated Sports co-founder took a few minutes to explain that bet and many others that led to Open week wins.
Simulation successful
Peabody and his betting team bet $330,000 on their Woods No bet, only to win just $1,000. At first glance, this may seem absurd to 95% or more of bettors. But listen to him, and you’ll gain a better understanding of how professional bettors approach their craft.
First, Peabody started with Woods’ odds to win the British Open. At many sportsbooks, that price was +30,000 or more (300/1). That meant a $100 bet would turn into $30,000 if Woods won. But he never entered and missed out, because the odds suggested that would be the case.
Furthermore, having done his homework before the tournament, Peabody knew that Woods’ odds of winning had to be much higher.
“Woods only won the tournament in eight of the 200,000 simulations I ran, which equates to odds of 24,999/1,” Peabody said.
That number is nowhere near what sportsbooks are offering, so the fair odds of Woods not winning should actually be significantly longer.
“I bet Woods not to win at 330/1 odds, when I think the odds should be 24,999/1,” Peabody said.
If you think Peabody and his associates are crazy to bet like that, remember that sportsbooks bet like that every day. When a bettor bets on Woods to win at 300/1 odds, the bookmaker is on the other side, betting 1/300.
Rinse and repeat
Peabody and his betting team repeated this formula for seven other golfers, including some of the top 20 contenders on the British Open odds board:
- $221,600 Bryson DeChambeau No -2216, to win $10,000
- $260,000 Tommy Fleetwood No -2600, to win $10,000
- $262,300 Brooks Koepka No -5246, to win $5,000
- $73,800 Robert Macintyre No -6276, to win $1,175.91
Now comes the deeper math as Peabody explains his reasoning further.
“Take Bryson, for example. My fair price for him not to win is -3012, which is an implied probability of 96.79%. So selling him at -2216, which is an implied probability of 95.68%, has a 1.15% advantage,” Peabody said. “A 1.15% advantage seems very small, and it is, but that’s per dollar risked. And when you set a price as big as we did, you can take on a lot more risk.
“You have to look at the edge versus its risk/reward profile,” Peabody continued, noting that he uses the Kelly Criterion, a formula that helps determine the optimal bet size based on total bankroll.
Peabody goes on to explain the process further: If a sportsbook has a $1,000 limit, the maximum bet on a favorite that allows a bettor to win $1,000. So while the 1.15% advantage on a $1,000 bet is only $11.15, if that bet is a -2216 favorite, the bettor can bet 22.16 times more than the plus-priced bet.
The ability to bet significantly more money makes the 1.15% edge a little more appealing.
In the end, Peabody won all eight No bets, for a profit of $35,176.
Those bets don’t always pay off, though. Peabody points out that last month, he and his team bet $360,000 to win $15,000 on DeChambeau instead of winning the US Open. It was a painful loss.
It takes a winner too
After the British Open, Peabody noted that although his No bet worked, he still needed to Xander Schauffele to go through and win the tournament to cash in on his winning bets. That made for an overall winning weekend for Peabody and his team.
“We bet on Xander at various odds. Before the tournament, we bet at +1400 to +1500. We bet at +700 after Round 1,” he said, adding that after Round 2, he bet more money on Schauffele at +1300.
Still, no-win bets are a big part of the portfolio, as nearly $2 million in bets show. But Peabody said even bettors with much smaller bankrolls can apply the same logic.
“The stakes don’t matter. You can do the same thing with a $1,000 bankroll,” he said. “In fact, all of this is easier with smaller bankrolls. But most recreational bettors just want to pay lottery-style. And it’s hard to find competitive golfers outside of the exchanges.”
SportTrade is the only betting exchange operating in the US, with markets in New Jersey, Colorado and Iowa. But the exchange is more popular in the UK.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior correspondent for VegasInsider.com. He is a prominent national sports betting journalist. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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