Migrants head towards a border checkpoint on the Belarus-Poland border on November 15, 2021.
Leonid Shcheglov / BELTA / AFP via Getty Images
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Migrants head towards a border checkpoint on the Belarus-Poland border on November 15, 2021.
Leonid Shcheglov / BELTA / AFP via Getty Images
The White House is increasingly concerned about migration being used as a weapon.
American officials have accused Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko of being the latest to take advantage of desperate migrants. They say he helped bring migrants from war-torn countries to the Belarusian border in an attempt to create a humanitarian crisis and put political pressure on his European neighbors.
“People are being used as pawns in a terrible, horrible game,” said Ivo Daalder, who served as US ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration. “It takes a particularly evil mindset. It takes a particularly evil mindset to see that people and their vulnerability and humanity can really be used as a means to gain.” political purposes.”
It’s the kind of geopolitical tool the White House fears could be used even more as instability grows and climate change drives more people out of their homes.
The world has last month shocked by pictures of desperate people from Africa, the Middle East and as far away as Cuba was trapped – and died – in the frigid woods while trying to cross the border into Poland.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Washington late last month to discuss the crisis with President Biden. She calls it a “hybrid attack”.
“This is not a migration crisis,” she told reporters at the White House. “This is an attempt by an authoritarian regime to try to destabilize its democratic neighbors. This is not going to work.”
Subsequently, the United States, along with the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada imposed new sanctions on Belarusian officials and organizations accused of facilitating the movement of migrants to Belarus. border.
This is just the latest of a series of sanctions that the allies have imposed on Belarus for political repression and corruption since Lukashenko’s controversial 2020 election, which the United States and the Coalition took Europe considers cheating.
But Karolina Łukasiewicz, a fellow at the Center for Migration Studies at the University of Warsaw, says Lukashenko has succeeded in getting some recognition from the European and international community.
“Until recently, European leaders have not spoken to Lukashenko,” she said. “He is not recognized as a legitimate president.”
She said world leaders were talking to him, noting his call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, before she left office.
“So you can say it worked,” says Łukasiewicz.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States officials in Minsk on May 28, 2021.
DMITRY ASTAKHOV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
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Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States officials in Minsk on May 28, 2021.
DMITRY ASTAKHOV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
She also accused the Polish government of using the crisis to build support among anti-migrant groups in Poland and to distract from criticism over its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Practice is part of a growing trend
Lukashenko is not the first leader to see an opportunity in the migration crisis.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used Syrian refugees fleeing the civil war to push for billions of dollars in payments and political concessions from the European Union.
Daalder says the operation is part of a growing trend to use migrants in asymmetric warfare.
“What we’re seeing is that certain leaders are willing to find another tool to gain leverage against a stronger opponent and do so in ways that may be unthinkable,” he said. .
The White House took note.
European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen speaks outside the White House on November 10, 2021 in Washington, DC. She accused Belarus of carrying out a “hybrid attack”.
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European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen speaks outside the White House on November 10, 2021 in Washington, DC. She accused Belarus of carrying out a “hybrid attack”.
Win McNamee / Getty Images
It issue a report this fall warned that climate-related increases in migration could be exploited by bad actors to “cause political instability in a number of ways.”
“Large migration flows are often seen as a threat to domestic and international stability and social cohesion,” the authors write.
One concern is that Russia or China could try to take advantage of migration caused by climate change.
The United Nations reports that an average of 21.5 million people have to be displaced one year from 2010 by floods, storms, wildfires and extreme temperatures. The White House estimates that tens of millions more people will likely be displaced over the next two to three decades because of climate change.
One major concern is that rivals such as Russia and China may try to take advantage of migration, especially climate change migration.
The White House says Russia is trying to benefit from anti-migrant sentiment in Europe. And China is seeking to garner support by providing assistance to countries that are “grappling with migration-related political unrest”.
Sherri Goodman, a senior fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said China is using all of its “tools of political influence”.
Goodman, one of the first to make the case that climate change migration is a threat to national security, says that China is actively building its soft power with small states. in the South Pacific are threatened by climate change.
“If it comes as a lifesaver – ‘I’ll improve your infrastructure or I’ll give you fresh water where you’re running out’ – that’s appealing to countries. are increasingly at risk,” said Goodman.
The White House insists this is not just an overseas problem.
Migration from Central America is a major political challenge in the US – and can be exploited by adversaries.
And that’s another reason the White House argues that America should model good, humanitarian practices for the rest of the world.
“Policy responses in the developed world will have a direct impact on political stability elsewhere,” the White House report states.
