In this photo provided by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, a 2,500-acre wildfire burned in Ocean County, NJ, on Wednesday.
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In this photo provided by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, a 2,500-acre wildfire burned in Ocean County, NJ, on Wednesday.
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Spring has arrived, bringing with it warmer weather and in many parts of the United States, red flag warnings.
People in the states from Minnesota ARRIVE maryland ARRIVE Massachusetts saw those warnings on their weather app this week. The notices warn of an increased risk of wildfires due to a combination of warm temperatures, low humidity and strong winds.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issues warnings in conjunction with state and local agencies, explained NWS spokesman and meteorologist John Moore.
“That means there’s enough conditions to start spreading wildfires,” Moore said. “It also means severe fire weather conditions are or will happen right now… So we advise people to exercise extreme caution if you are burning… or do anything with the fire outside.”
Even so, he added, it’s important to always practice good fire safety habits, as wildfires don’t just happen on red flag days.
Tamara Wall, a research professor at the Desert Research Institute in Nevada, says the origin of the name is quite literal.
“If there is a high risk of fire, local fire stations will put red flags on the flagpole,” she said. “It’s a very visual way of public communication to signal to people in the area … that it’s a high-risk day.”
Electronic red flags warn of risky conditions in the next 12 to 24 hours. They differ in time from fire weather watches, which warn of the possibility of those conditions developing over the next 72 hours.
Wall said the latter term was created to better differentiate between “warning” and “monitoring” in firefighters’ radio communications. But it has confused many people, they mistakenly think that one is more serious than the other.
That assumption may be due to the way the terms are used in other weather warnings – for example: tornado clock means a tornado is possible in the area, while a tornado warning means a tornado has been seen. Red flag warnings and fire weather watches can be for the same extreme conditions, Wall said, just that the watches last for a longer period of time.
“Fire is a bit of a problem, because unlike hurricane warnings or clocks or other alarm clock products, we don’t know if it’s actually happening,” Wall said.
“We can have all the weather conditions — we can have dry fuel, high winds, low relative humidity — but if there’s no ignition, nothing will happen. Because So it’s a product that’s a little harder to explain and respond to in some ways, because it’s really about preparation.”
Here’s what else to know — and do — about these warnings.
What should you do if you receive a warning?
Red flag warnings are essentially advance warnings, Wall said.
People should prepare for the possibility of ignition or evacuation, such as charging their phones, and make sure they know their loved ones — especially those with disabilities or mobility problems — where they are. where during the day. They will also want to plan for things to do with any pets or livestock.
Before people leave their homes for the day, they should ensure that all windows in their homes and cars are closed, even bringing flammable materials such as outdoor cushions indoors or garage.
Other precautions include removing any dead bushes around your house that could cause a fire, keeping your vehicle away from dry grass, and avoiding the use of electrical equipment that creates sparks.
Wall says that fire managers will also take these warnings into account, such as changing staff numbers or moving resources in advance to a certain area in the event something happens. If there is a chance of a particularly dangerous event, she said, local authorities could consider policy decisions such as banning campfires or closing specific areas.
More than ever on red flag days, Moore said, “you don’t want to risk fire with fire.” So avoid doing what you can accidentally ignited a forest firewhether it’s a campfire, burning trash in the yard, or flicking a cigarette out of a car window.
“It’s mostly telling people… to be prepared,” says Moore. “If you’re going to do something that day, you should probably reschedule it.”
A red flag fire warning sign as seen in October 2013 in Pasadena, Calif.
Nick Ut/AP
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A red flag fire warning sign as seen in October 2013 in Pasadena, Calif.
Nick Ut/AP
What are the criteria for a red flag alert?
The NWS says red flag events typically require a combination of critical fuel conditions — determined by land administrations — and critical weather conditions.
Key criteria include a relative humidity of 15% or less combined with sustained surface winds or frequent gusts of 25 mph or more. Both conditions must occur simultaneously for at least three hours in a 12-hour period.
Moore said the main considerations are wind speed, humidity and ground dryness, although exact conditions vary by region.
Every year, Wall explained, each weather bureau creates an annual operational plan (AOP) that lists the criteria they will use when deciding whether to issue red flag warnings or monitor fire weather. fire.
“For example, 20% humidity in Florida is a very, very different fire potential weather situation than 20% humidity in Nevada,” she added.
Moore said the NWS considers the information and expertise of its state and local partners when making those decisions.
He added: “We can issue a red flag warning, but we cannot issue a ban on burning or things of that nature, local restrictions, it’s all up to the discretion. of state and local government”. “So we also work closely with them to set those thresholds.”
Where and when do we usually see them?
Red flags can occur in any part of the country at any time of the year.
“Almost anywhere has the potential for an uncontrolled fire,” says Wall.
There is some seasonality to them, she added. Fire season begins in the southwest around March and continues through the northern Rockies into August and September, while California typically has a fire season in the fall.
“They’re pretty common across the country,” says Moore. “In my experience as a meteorologist, every area I live has red flag warning days.”
Moore notes that there are natural variations in climate patterns and the warnings they require, so he wouldn’t necessarily say there’s been an upward trend in red flag warnings in recent years.
But more people have access to weather information than ever before – whether through iPhone apps or social media posts – which he considers a good thing.
“We want more people to pay attention to the weather,” says Moore. “And especially on days that can have an impact not only on yourself but also on your community if you’re not careful, we want people to be aware of that.”
Pacific Gas & Electric cuts power to tens of thousands of California residents to prevent potential wildfires in October 2020.
Rich Pedroncelli / AP
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Rich Pedroncelli / AP
Pacific Gas & Electric cuts power to tens of thousands of California residents to prevent potential wildfires in October 2020.
Rich Pedroncelli / AP
Will the warning system change?
Would a constant stream of red flag warnings and fire weather watches actually have the opposite effect, by potentially reducing people’s susceptibility to fire hazards?
There may be a risk that people will get used to these warnings, Moore says, but they still serve the important purpose of raising awareness of particularly hazardous conditions.
“Want to always repeat so as not to do these [basic] everything, whether it’s dangerous weather conditions or not,” says Moore. “But we wanted to add a little more to remind people of those really dangerous days.”
He acknowledged the confusion between the two terms and said it was “something we’re looking at internally.”
Wall — who Work closely with the program funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (where the NWS is located) – don’t think the name “red flag alert” should change, as it’s already very well established, especially in the south. west. But she thinks the process can be improved.
She explained that the NWS has long worked on a “risk-simplification” effort to narrow down the number of tracking and warnings to help the public better understand them.
She said there have been concerns about “over-release” in some parts of the US, with some parts of the West noticing daily red flag warnings during very dry summers, which has promote efforts to reform the system.
Wall was among the experts who spoke to the NWS about possible solutions, and they advocated using the severity system for red flag warnings, where the risk would be marked as moderate or , in the case of the most extreme conditions, the severity is very high.
The key, she says, is to improve communication and take precautions, she thinks, “really, the last place we’re going to be in fire-responsive communities” and creating communities are resistant to forest fires.
“I feel like if you keep things relatively simple, you’ll get people’s attention better,” says Wall. “But in areas that are really prone to wildfires, that’s the way of life these days. You have to pay attention and you have to be prepared.”
