The Week That Was: 2024 07-13 (July 13, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “
Number of the Week: $95 per megawatt hour
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The 42nd Annual Meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) held July 6 and 7, had a number of presentations by distinguished scientists on issues pertaining to energy and the environment. This week will focus on two by members of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science (CERES-SCIENCE) Willie Soon and Michael Connolly. A third member of the CERES team, Ronan Connolly, gave a talk on COVID which is out of the scope of TWTW. Other pertinent talks will be discussed in future as well as the talks by Paleogeologist Tom Gallagher.
Discussed below is a long paper by Roy Clark, a specialist in Spectroscopy, on the failure of global climate models. There is a difference on whether ocean corals are expanding or declining, but Jennifer Marohasy, a Great Barrier Reef scuba diver, asserts the important issue is understanding change, particularly re-growth after destruction by cyclones. Chuck Dinerstein, MD, of ACSH gives his views on the Supreme Court rejecting the Chevron Deference. The absurdity of high-tech companies claiming that they will go to net zero is discussed.
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Summary of Issues: Willie Soon of the CERES team led off the presentations to the 42nd Annual Meeting of DDP with the “Scientific challenges of the ‘detection and attribution of global warming.’” He went through a number of points that are familiar to readers of TWTW, and only a few will be emphasized here.
Among the interesting slides were graphic representation of data from Carbon Brief.org., hardly a “climate denier” group. According to their data, CO2 emissions have been flat for one decade. What they did was revise land-use emissions downward in 2021. This hardly conforms to the Assessment Reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR 1 to 6). This “trick” may stem from the fact that China and now India are the largest emitters of CO2, while emissions from the US and the EU have declined. India now emits more than the EU and is increasing its coal fired power plants significantly. According to Our World in Data, in 2022 China emitted 11.40 billion tons: the US 5.06; India 2.83; and the EU 2.76. According to Soon, US emissions dropped 18% by 2022 since peaking in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century.
More importantly, Soon presented considerable evidence that photosynthesis is increasing, life on Earth is flourishing, which contradicts those who claim a climate crisis or massive species extinction. Soon neatly sums the problems with the UN IPCC’s approach to the “the detection and attribution of global warming.”
- “Problems in the UN’s ‘detection’ approach:
- Underestimating the extent of the urban heat island problem
- Problems with current ‘temperature homogenization’ approach
- Our rural-only Northern Hemisphere land temperature record
- Other non-urbanized temperature series (oceans, tree-rings, glaciers)
- Problems with the UN’s ‘attribution’ approach:
- UN’s ‘radiative forcings’ underestimate the role of natural climate change.
- Trying to better answer how solar activity has changed since 1850.
- Different aspects of solar activity
- Changes in solar activity during satellite era
- Using solar proxies to reconstruct solar activity in the past.
- 27 different estimates of solar activity changes since 1850
- Our (CERES-SCIENCE) latest detection and attribution result.”
Soon then discusses the justification for the UN IPCC.
“Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the objective of the IPCC is to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies. – https://www.ipcc.ch/about/
• They have so far published 6 Assessment Reports (AR for short):
• AR1 (1990); AR2 (1995); AR3 (2001); AR4 (2007); AR5 (2013); AR6 (2021)
• Most iconic statement: The observed global warming since at least 1950s is mostly human-caused and also unprecedented.
• How did they reach this conclusion? And is it scientifically justified?”
Soon addresses the claim that the observed warming is mostly human-caused and unprecedented in details that are shown in the presentation and the slides. As Soon describes, the UN IPCC fails to give convincing physical evidence and ignores contradicting physical evidence. By ignoring important physical evidence, the UN IPCC fails as a scientific organization – it is a political organization engaged in political persuasion. As Soon describes, the IPCC’s collaborators in the US government are particularly poor because they ignore (and have unjustifiably altered) the most comprehensive air-surface temperature dataset since the 1880s: the US dataset. Soon discusses the changing of the datasets and demonstrates various types of changes.
Then, using only Northern Hemisphere rural datasets, Soon shows that the data capture warming to 1940s, then cooling to 1970s, then warming. Further, there is no clear trend in worldwide precipitation, no matter what one may claim that “scientists say.” Further, he shows that the global climate models used by the IPCC cannot reproduce historic data (hindcast), consequently are useless for forecasting climate trends. All the IPCC considers are volcanic forcing and very little solar forcing, far less than what Soon asserts.
Soon then discusses the role of the sun which powers Earth’s weather-climate system. He goes into details for sunspots and their variation, which influence Earth’s weather-climate system. Direct measurements of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) began only in 1978 and each satellite lasts only 10-15 years. Unfortunately, each satellite shows different trends between solar cycles. He shows 27 estimates of total solar irradiance and 3 different estimates from sunspot numbers. [These are discussed in detail in a paper published by Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e .]
Of the 27 estimates of TSI, IPCC AR6 considers only one with minor variation – ignoring the others. Soon admits his group does not know which of the 27 estimates of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is correct, but neither does the IPCC. It chooses the one that most closely supports its claim that “only anthropogenic factors” can support recent warming. Soon concludes:
“• The IPCC insists that urbanization bias is less than 10% of the warming and therefore doesn’t need to be accounted for – They are wrong on impacts of UHI! [Urban Heat Island]
• The IPCC insist that they have already resolved the best solar activity (“TSI”) records, for their latest 6th Assessment Report (2021), they only considered one estimate. But we have found 27. They are wrong on TSI too!
• When we consider the non-urbanized temperature data, we can explain almost all the observed warming and cooling periods since 1850 in terms of changes in the Sun: whether looking at rural temperatures, ocean temperatures or temperature proxies (tree-rings and glaciers).
• The scientific community is not yet able to establish if the global warming since 1850 is: a) ‘mostly natural’, b) ‘both natural and human-caused’ or c) ‘mostly human-caused’.” [Emphasis in original]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions#all-charts for CO2 emissions.
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Weather Balloon Data: Michael Connolly gave a presentation: “Using Weather Balloon Data to Test Assumptions of Computer Climate Models.” He discussed weather balloons and what they measure. Then he went into “a brief history of Atmospheric Science, Thermodynamics, the development of the Barometric Equation and the Lapse Rate,” and pointed out that experimental research in engineering led to the three laws of thermodynamics. Further he showed that there are different definitions of Tropopause:1) Our Temperature Based Definition of Tropopause; 2) Standard WMO Definition of Tropopause; and 3) Tropical Cold Point Tropopause — each higher in altitude for a specific location.
Connolly then states:
“We have been able with the high quality Ozonesonde data sets to arrive at four new independent ways of determining the onset of the tropopause which are highly correlated with each other and appear less ad hoc than the WMO definitions.”
He then goes into the history of the development of this good quality Radiosonde data, which leads to a different definition of the Tropopause using a temperature-based definition and how it changes with height from day to day. sing this definition, he questions the standard explanation for the Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar circulations cells. He asserts that the weather balloon data show a north-south shifting of the net mass of the atmosphere at two different altitudes for specific locations. He states:
“The balloon data does not support The various circulation cells model.
Instead, the balloon data suggests that the entire atmosphere, except for at ground level, oscillates back and forth in unison from north to south and from west to east every few days.”
So much for a claim that the science is settled. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Model Errors: Many researchers have questioned the concept of relative humidity as used in global climate models, especially by the NOAA financed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) at Princeton University. As defined in Britannica,
“Relative humidity, ratio of the actual vapor pressure of water in the air to that in air saturated with water vapor; it is often expressed as a percentage.”
William van Wijngaarden, a colleague of Will Happer, has pointed out that in some areas, to get the 1°C increase in temperatures from an increase in water vapor (as shown in the global climate models for a doubling of carbon dioxide) requires an increase in relative humidity to greater than 100%, which is impossible.
Kenneth Richard of No Tricks Zone discussed a paper accepted by The Journal “Science of Climate Change” by Roy Clark. Clark is the founder and long-time president of Venture Photonics and had over 30 years of experience in optics and spectroscopy with emphasis on new product and process development. He has multiple patents in areas of illumination, higher energy lasers, optical sensors, and optics components. The abstract of Clark’s paper bluntly states:
“When the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded part of the 2021 Nobel Prize for Physics to Syukuro Manabe [GFDL] they failed to recognize that the climate models used to justify the award were invalid. When the CO2 concentration was increased in the 1967 model developed by Manabe and Wetherald it created warming as a mathematical artifact of the simplistic steady state energy transfer assumptions that they used. The initial temperature increase was then amplified by a second artifact, the assumption of a fixed relative humidity distribution that created a water vapor feedback. When the CO2 concentration was doubled from 300 to 600 parts per million (ppm), the 1967 model predicted an increase in equilibrium surface temperature of 2.9 °C for clear sky conditions. The equilibrium temperature increase produced by a CO2 doubling later became known as the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The algorithms used in the 1967 model were incorporated into their 1975 global circulation model (GCM). This also had an ECS of 2.9 °C. The steady state assumption provided the foundation for the concept of radiative forcing. The water vapor feedback became part of a set of feedbacks that were used to adjust the radiative forcings. The ECS produced by the 1967 model artifacts provided a benchmark for the temperature increases to be expected in future climate models. The invalid concepts of radiative forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity were accepted by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and have been used in all six of the IPCC Climate Assessment Reports. A thermal engineering analysis of the interactive, time dependent surface energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature demonstrates that it is impossible for the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1800 to have caused any unequivocal change in surface temperature.”
The 73-page paper with 10 pages of references concludes:
Starting in the nineteenth century, the energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature were oversimplified using the equilibrium climate assumption. The time dependent flux terms were replaced by average values. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity. When the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased, radiative transfer calculations show that there is a small decrease in the LWIR flux returned to space within the spectral emission bands of CO2. It is assumed that this perturbs the equilibrium climate and that the surface temperature increases until the flux balance is restored. This approach was used by Arrhenius in 1896. [A calculation that Arrhenius greatly changed ten years later.] It created surface warming as a mathematical simplification in his calculations. The idea that an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration could warm the earth became accepted scientific dogma. The concept was originally proposed as the cause of an Ice Age. Gradually this was transformed to concern over warming effects from fossil fuel combustion.
In 1967, Manabe and Wetherald used the Arrhenius model as the foundation for their 1-D RC model. They added a 9- or 18-layer radiative transfer calculation with a fixed relative humidity. (RH) distribution. This added a water vapor feedback that amplified the initial CO2 warming created by the equilibrium assumption. When the CO2 concentration was increased from 300 to 600 ppm in the MW67 model, the total warming was 2.9 °C for clear sky conditions. They went on to incorporate their MW67 modeling assumptions into every unit cell of the ‘highly simplified’ GCM described in MW75. This provided an invalid benchmark for the warming created in later GCMs. Manabe’s group never considered the errors associated with the equilibrium assumption and ignored the daily and seasonal variations in both temperature and RH found in the surface boundary layer. For a CO2 doubling, the small temperature increases calculated at each step in their time integration procedure does not accumulate in the real atmosphere.
As funding was reduced at NASA after the end of the Apollo (moon landing) program, the group modeling planetary atmospheres shifted to climate studies. In H76 they simply copied the MW67 model and used it to create warming artifacts for 10 minor species including CH4 and N2O. The basic equilibrium climate model was completed with H81. This added a slab ocean to MW67 and introduced the CO2 step doubling. The model was then tuned so that the calculated warming resembled the global mean temperature record derived from the measured temperature record. This established the pseudoscientific concepts of radiative forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity that have been used by the IPCC since it was established in 1988.
As computer technology improved, the climate models became more complex. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs replaced the 1-D RC model, but the underlying equilibrium assumption was still there. Water vapor feedback still amplified the CO2 warming artifact created by Arrhenius. Starting with the Third IPCC Climate Assessment Report (TAR), 2001, the time series of radiative forcings used to simulate the global mean temperature record was split into ‘natural’ and ‘anthropogenic’ forcings. The climate models were then rerun to create a separate ‘natural baseline’ and an ‘anthropogenic contribution.’ A vague statistical argument using changes to the normal distribution (‘bell’ or Gaussian curve) of temperature was then used to claim that the increase in temperature caused by ‘anthropogenic’ forcings would cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of ‘extreme weather events. This provided the pseudoscientific justification for the political control of fossil fuel combustion that has led to the 1.5 or 2 °C limit in the Paris Climate Accord and the disastrous net zero policy of today.
The scientific method is an interactive process of hypothesis based on available scientific evidence. This was never used in mainstream climate science. The equilibrium climate assumption became accepted scientific dogma in the nineteenth century. Climate modeling has now degenerated past dogma into a quasi-religious cult. Irrational belief in climate model results has replaced logic and reason. Instead of changing the hypothesis to explain the data, the opposite has occurred. Climate data has been made to fit the pseudoscience of radiative forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity. The weather station data has been ‘adjusted’ using ‘homogenization.’ Satellite radiometer data has been reduced to the three numbers used to create the illusion of an equilibrium climate. The spectral distribution of the LWIR flux returned to space has been removed from the discussion of the effective emission temperature and the greenhouse effect temperature. The Charney Report ignored the Milankovitch cycles that are the real cause of the Ice Age cycle. The role of ocean oscillations in climate change has been neglected. The paleoclimate record has been distorted to fit the climate model results. Tree ring data was unilaterally selected to reduce the temperature increase related to the medieval warming period and create the well-known hockey stick plot used in the Third IPCC Climate Assessment Report. The contribution of fossil fuel combustion to the observed 140 ppm increase in CO2 concentration has been greatly exaggerated. Electronic controls theory has been used incorrectly to describe climate feedback effects. However other concepts in electronics such as the phase shift and the signal to noise ratio have been conveniently overlooked.
The basic requirement of a climate model is that it should accurately predict the climate observations it was configured to simulate. When climate models are examined in more detail and model outputs are compared to observations, it is found that that they have very poor predictive capabilities. The limitations of the climate models associated with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have been discussed in detail in Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, Idso et al (2013). Since short term climate change is strongly influenced by ocean oscillations, this provides a good model test. Section 1.4.1 El Niño/Southern Oscillation concludes:
Clearly there remain multiple problems in the ability of models to reliably simulate various aspects of climate associated with ENSO events, casting further doubt on the overall ability of models to simulate the future climate of the planet in general.
When the pseudoscience of radiative forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity is removed from the climate models, what is left? Are the underlying GCMs capable of predicting natural climate changes such as those related to ocean oscillations? Model performance so far indicates that another approach is needed.
The 2.9 °C clear sky increase in surface temperature produced by a doubling of the CO2 concentration reported in Table 5 of MW67 was produced by two mathematical artifacts created using an oversimplified 1-D RC model. These errors were never corrected and provided the foundation for the massive climate modeling fraud we have today. The part of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to Manabe was for climate modeling simplifications or errors that created spurious warming when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was increased.
Instead of an extended discussion over the magnitude of the climate sensitivity, there is a simple question that climate science should address:
At present the average annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is near 2.4 ppm per year. This produces an increase in the downward LWIR flux from the lower troposphere to the surface of approximately 0.034 W m-2 per year. How does this change the surface temperature of the earth?
The correct answer is that any temperature changes are too small to measure. Nor can there be any effect on extreme weather events.” [Boldface added]
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Tiff: There is a disagreement among colleagues who generally agree: are coral reefs expanding or remaining roughly constant? We do not have systematic measurements of coral reefs worldwide. To TWTW, such long-term measurements are needed to make any assertion of growth or shrinkage. In separate posts, Jennifer Marohasy relates her views as one who scuba dives frequently at the Great Barrier Reef. In “Knowing Nature & Ourselves” she writes:
“I am very privileged to have some wonderful friends, who still take the time to observe nature. Once upon a time we found these people in universities studying the natural sciences, now we are perhaps more likely to find them in film school or at iNaturalist.
The reef crest at John Brewer some ten weeks after the cyclone. [Photo in article]. It looked terrible, I felt terrible. But I know that there is already a significant recovery. We need to know the death and destruction to understand that nature is cycles. It is so important that we remember this, to know ourselves and to become resilient.”
And in “Seeing Barren Island Corals, and Fish. Part 2” she questions claims of expanding coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef. It is more important to understand change. In the comment section she writes:
“Rather than surveying for ‘decline’ in the Great Barrier Reef it would be more scientific to survey to understand ‘change.’ This could be change in the distribution and also change in the abundance of particular coral species and particular fish species.”
See links under Changing Seas.
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Chevron Deference: Writing for the American Council on Science and Health (ACSH), Dr. Chuck Dinerstein offers another perspective on the recent Supreme Court decision to discard the assumption that when in doubt, the court’s should prefer the views of government agencies over private groups. Dinerstein writes:
“The Supreme Court’s reversal of the Chevron Doctrine marks a significant shift in how regulatory power is allocated between agencies, representing the executive branch and the judiciary. While it addresses concerns about unchecked bureaucratic authority, it leads the way for unchecked judicial authority. Chevron reflected the reality of government, that not all can be known, and that the details are sometimes messy and often uncertain. Putting the details in the hands of the judiciary will not achieve balanced, effective regulations that serve the public interest without falling prey to political whims.”
TWTW believes this is a danger, but a hope as well. Claims by the EPA {such as: the greenhouse gas endangerment finding, Linear No Threshold modeling, PM2.5 health risks}are not supported by physical evidence, thus are not based on physical science. The reversal of the Chevron deference gives hope that one day, perhaps in ten years, courts will require understanding of the physical evidence, not speculation such as in global climate modeling. EPA’s endangerment finding excludes the dominant greenhouse gas (water vapor) which is critical in global climate modeling. See link under Litigation Issues and https://www.epa.gov/climate-change/endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute-findings-greenhouse-gases-under-section-202a
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Bragging Rights: High Tech industries have competed for bragging rights on which one will get to net zero carbon dioxide emissions the fastest. In “Big Tech On The Path To Net Zero” Francis Menton states it is all hogwash. The big tech companies are nowhere near net zero and the development of artificial intelligence (AI) with its great need for reliable electricity indicates that they will not. Solar and wind cannot deliver reliable affordable electricity because the battery capacity to make it reliable does not exist.
Strangely, one must go to publications such as the Hindustan Times (New Delhi) to get an honest assessment in the press. The huge need of AI for reliable electricity is not in manufacturing chips or use of computers, but in training AI chips.
“Current models like ChatGPT-4o cost about $100 million to train, but this cost for training is expected to reach $10-100 billion in as little as three years,” he said. [Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, a US-based artificial intelligence (AI) startup.]
Is this why India is investing heavily in coal-fired power plants? See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and Energy Issues – US.
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Number of the Week: $95 per megawatt hour. In “Why Wind Power Is Useless,” retired entrepreneur Norman Rogers made an honest effort to calculate the hidden subsidies given US tax credits and local mandates. He writes:
“In an unsubsidized world the wind power company needs $115 per megawatt hour, but the electric utility would only be willing to pay $20 per megawatt hour. The difference must be made up by a subsidy from taxes or higher electric rates. The subsidy required is about 83% of the cost of wind power, or $95 per megawatt hour. We offer this as a fair estimate of the wind power subsidy.
In order to eliminate the emission of a metric ton of CO2 by substituting wind power for natural gas power, one must generate about 3.5 megawatt hours of electricity by wind rather than natural gas. The subsidy required will be about $330 per metric ton of emissions eliminated. But one can purchase a carbon offset that reduces the same amount of CO2 emissions, in the carbon offset market, for about $10 per ton. $330 is an exorbitant price for a carbon offset.
It’s difficult for politicians, or anyone, to admit they’ve been conned. It’s time that everyone admits it and we kill the wind power industry.”
Why can’t Washington, such as the Department of Energy, make such calculations? See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy
CERES team presentations at the DDP conference in El Paso, TX, July 5, 2024
- Willie Soon: “Scientific Challenges of Detection and Attribution of Global Warming”
- Michael Connolly: “Using Weather Balloon Data to Test Assumptions of Computer Climate Models”
- Ronan Connolly: “How COVID Health Policies Neglected the Disease, the Patient, and the Physician”
https://www.ceres-science.com/post/ddp-july-2024
Seminal 1967 Paper Introducing CO2 ‘Radiative Forcing’ Is Based On Assumptive Imaginary-World Modeling
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 12, 2024
Link to paper: A Nobel Prize for Climate Model Errors
By Roy Clark, Science of Climate Change, Accepted Mar 2, 2024
The paper cites Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science by NIPCC
Global CO2 Emissions are Tracking Well Below the Climate Scenarios Used to Scare People
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 30, 2024
Why Wind Power Is Useless
By Norman Rogers, Real Clear Energy, July 11, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/11/useless_wind_power_1043988.html
A Tale of 2 Opposing Ocean Warming Narratives!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, July 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Excellent commentary on ocean warming and why it cannot be from increasing concentrations of CO2.]
Humanity’s Ascent Linked to Fossil Fuels: A Story Less Told
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 2, 2024
New Study: ‘Carbon Dioxide And A Warming Climate Are Not Problems’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 8, 2024
Link to paper: Carbon dioxide and a warming climate are not problems
By Andy May, Marcel Crok, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, May 29, 2024
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajes.12579
Joe Oliver: Scientific method counters climate alarmism
A submission to the Hague Court by three distinguished U.S. scientists challenges the basic premises of net-zero policies targeting CO2
By Joe Oliver, Financial Post (Canada), July 2, 2024
https://financialpost.com/opinion/scientific-method-beats-climate-alarmism
Link to opinion: Shell v. Milieudefensie et al. – Expert Opinion prepared for Foundation ‘Environment and Man’ (Stichting ‘Milieu en Mens’, M&M)
By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Steven Koonin, Court of Appeals the Hague, Nov 30, 2023
https://friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=2954
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The WHOI Lye Dumping Experiment: A Reckless Attempt at Climate Mitigation
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 9, 2024
The recent announcement by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) to conduct an experiment involving the dumping of lye into the ocean is a striking example of the overzealous and poorly thought-out measures being taken under the guise of combating climate change.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Weekly #510: International Climate Conference Debunks Science and Policy Consensus Claims
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, June 28, 2024
Seven Deadly Climate Sins of Omission
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, July 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The Sins of Omission can also apply to the UN IPCC and its collaborators who ignore the only comprehensive measurements of global temperature trends – by Earth System Science Center, UAH.]
Scam of the Century! Riding the World of Crude Oil Without a Replacement is Global Suicide!
By Ronald Stein and Gregory Wrightstone, CO2 Coalition, July 9, 2024
Cause or Effect?
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July9, 2024
New Study: 1979-2013 Southern Ocean And Southeast Pacific Cooling Driven By…Warming?
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 1, 2024
Link to paper: Rapid high-latitude cooling in the southeastern Pacific sector driven by North Atlantic warming during 1979–2013 in CESM1 [Community Earth System Model, NCAR, UCAR]
By Shuai-Lei Yao et al 2024 Environmental Research Letters, May 24, 2024
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad4b45/pdf
Form abstract: Anomalous North Atlantic warming initiates a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to a south-to-north cross-equatorial Hadley circulation strengthening, leading to an enhanced Amundsen Sea Low [western Antarctica], As a result, due primarily to the increased low-level marine cloud cover, the net surface shortwave radiation reduction triggers rapid SST cooling in the southeastern Pacific domain. [Boldface added]
Peer reviewed skepticism
By David Wojick, CFACT, July 8, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/07/08/peer-reviewed-skepticism
“Using IPCC scenarios, Lomborg estimates that economic growth will decline from 450% to 434% over the 21st century. Will anyone notice?
The infrastructure to replace fossil fuels does not exist and likely cannot be built in a short time.”
Climate Fatigue strikes in Ireland: Most people don’t believe it harms them and have no plans to be vegetarian or give up their cars
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 6, 2024
Link to report: Climate Conversation 2023: Report From Individual Action to Collective Engagement
By Staff, Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, Government of Ireland, June 2024
From Nova quoting from the report: And finally, there is the realization that “virtue signaling” is its own liability:
“They are perceived to be potentially quite boring and earnest as they sacrifice activities such as foreign travel to align with their values. At an extreme, they are viewed as miserable martyrs. They are intentionally vocal about their actions. It was believed that this was intended as an attempt to promote positive actions in others but also to demonstrate their virtuous behaviour. Unfortunately, this active promotion to others less well-placed to act risked being viewed as an attempt to talk down to others, further reinforcing the view of climate action being for those who can afford it.”
[SEPP Comment: Nova sees through the bureaucratic BS in the air-head report.]
Climate Fact Check: June 2024 Edition
Ten bogus media climate claims and more from June 2024 debunked here.
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, July 5, 2024
Energy & Environmental Review: July 8, 2024
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, July 8, 2024
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Percent photosynthesis (net CO2 exchange rate) increase for Quercus rubra L. [northern Red Oak] following 300 and 60 ppm increases in the air’s CO2 concentration
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive
Percent dry weight (biomass) increases for Acer saccharum Marshall (sugar maples) following 300 ppm increases in the air’s CO2 concentration
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
From the CO2Science archive
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Big Tech On The Path To Net Zero
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 11, 2024
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-7-11-big-tech-on-the-path-to-net-zero
Training AI costs around $1 billion now, can go up to $100 billion in 3 years: Anthropic CEO
Edited by Abhyjith K. Ashokan, Hindustan Times, July 8, 2024
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/training-ai-costs-around-1-billion-now-can-go-up-to-100-billion-in-3-years-anthropic-ceo-101720452062408.html#:~:text=Training%20AI%20costs%20around%20%241,years%3A%20Anthropic%20CEO%20%2D%20Hindustan%20Times
Not-Transitioning: India burns more coal than the US and Europe combined and just ordered $33b in “new coal plants”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 5, 2024
China is the coal furnace of the world, and everyone is fine with that
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 9, 2024
Even though India now consumes more than Europe and the US combined, there is really only one coal consumer. Just to update those figures…
Seeking a Common Ground
Schrödinger’s Climate Cat
Climate fueled extreme weather, Part 2
By Roger Pielke Jr, The Honest Broker, July 8, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/schrodingers-climate-cat?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=146309780&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Link to part 1: Climate Fueled Extreme Weather
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-fueled-extreme-weather
My view is that Trenberth — a grizzled veteran of the climate wars — with his proposed reversal of the null hypothesis was more concerned with arguing qualitatively that climate change is real against his skeptical opponents, rather than quantifying changes in the climatology of extreme weather events.
[SEPP Comment: Earth has many climates, changing constantly, so climate change is real. Why spend trillions of dollars to stop it?]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
From the government and here to poison you sanctimoniously: Canada’s Environment Minister just banned compact fluorescent bulbs starting Dec. 31, 2025, by regulatory fiat because “It is crucial that we continue to protect the health of Canadians”. Say, didn’t the Canadian government force them on us only two decades ago and misinform us “Are compact fluorescent bulbs safe? Yes!
Models v. Observations
The #CRE Challenge Part 4: Northern hemisphere hiatus and snow cover
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
The #CRE challenge Part 5: Nothing left for non-halogen GHGs
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Model Issues
Implications of the Linear Carbon Sink Model
By Joachin Dengler, Climate Etc. July 10, 2024
Link to paper: Improvements and Extension of the Linear Carbon Sink Model
By Joachin Dengler, Atmosphere, Juen 21, 2024
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/7/743
Measurement Issues — Surface
Tale Of Two Weather Stations
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 3, 2024
Below are photos of two weather stations in Hull.
One is run by the University of Hull’s Environmental Department; the other is used by the Met Office for climatological purposes and typically runs two degrees hotter.
It does not take a genius to work out which is which!
Leconfield’s Solar Farm
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 30, 2024
Hull East has only been opened since 2011, and it appears that Leconfield only has continuous data since that year as well. (More on this later, but it is absolutely disgraceful that the Met Office don’t make all of their weather station data publicly and readily available – year of opening is just one piece of data not available.)
UHI In Phoenix
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2024
“A recent NASA map provides a stark visualization of the extreme temperatures that pavement can reach in Phoenix, Arizona, during periods of intense heat.”
Homewood: Phoenix’s main weather station is at the International Airport, and has been there since 1930, two years after the airport opened. It is situated about 50m from the taxiing area, marked in blue, close enough to the runways to provide accurate temperature data for the aircraft.
When the airport opened, it was just a field with a few biplanes taking off. Now it covers 3400 acres, most of which is concreted over.
It is hard to think of a worse place to measure temperature trends.
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2024: +0.80 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 2, 2024
Global Temperature Report, June 2024
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, July 2, 2024
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/June/202406_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/June/202406_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/June/GTR_202406JUN_v1.pdf
June’s global temperature anomaly fell to +0.80°C (+1.44 °F), the coolest anomaly since Aug 2023, further signaling the demise of the 2023-24 El Niño’s powerful impact on the global atmosphere. In two months, the global temperature has fallen a full quarter of a degree, but this is not unprecedented as in 2021, for example, the globe cooled by -0.29 °C in just one month from Oct to Nov.
Changing Weather
Hurricane Beryl is a natural
By Joe Bastardi, CFACT, July 1, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/07/01/hurricane-beryl-is-a-natural
Why Hurricanes Intensify!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, July 3, 2024
Was Beryl Only A Cat 4?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 4, 2024
I should perhaps make it clear that I accept that modern measurements are the ones that are accurate. But if this is the case, all of the others that have gone before must be underestimated.
The Weather Regimes of Summer
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 12, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-weather-regimes-of-summer.html
Weather patterns tend to get “stuck” for extended periods and we have certainly seen such persistent conditions this summer. Weather patterns can be self-reinforcing and thus stay in position for many days or weeks. And oceanic forcing, such as associated with El Nino and La Nina, can cause weather patterns to “lock”.
The Current Northwest Heatwave: Facts Versus Hype
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 8, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2024-07-10T15:32:00-07:00&max-results=2
DWD Data Show June 2024 German Weather Was Close To Normal
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 30, 2024
No (predicted) “hellish summer” in sight. June saw near normal temperature, a bit wetter
“Southern Australia is freezing. How can it be so cold in a warming climate?”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 7, 2024
[SEPP Comment: In winter, high pressure systems cause cold, still nights when wind and solar power do not work.]
The Two Most Turbulent Airports in the U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 2, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-two-most-turbulent-airports-in-us.html#google_vignette
Unbelievable Change in Temperature in a Very Short Distance
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 6, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/07/unbelievable-change-in-temperature-in.html
Can you imagine having the temperature change from a chilly 59F to a torrid 101F in only 3 miles? Or a similar change ascending a modest mountain, with temperature INCREASING with height.
Changing Seas
Knowing Nature & Ourselves (Part 1.)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 10, 2024
Seeing Barren Island Corals, and Fish. Part 2
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 5, 2024
How Things Change – the Weather and Coral Cover
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 5, 2024
Cyclone Causes Increase in Coral Cover – If You Believe Their Nonsense Number
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 8, 2024
That sinking feeling
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Not All the Seas are Hot
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 3, 2024
Giant Oyster Shell Discovery Suggests Early Holocene Seas Were 4°C (Up To 8°C) Warmer Than Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 5, 2024
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Discovery of 2-million-year-old DNA in Greenland reveals new details about ancient life
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 9, 2024
Climate-driven ice breakage is shortening shipping season in Northwest Passage: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, July 11, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4766212-northwest-passage-ice-shortens-shipping
Link to paper: Sea ice choke points reduce the length of the shipping season in the Northwest Passage
By Alison J. Cook, et al., Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, July 1, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01477-6
[SEPP Comment: The ice is not breaking up as early as previously claimed, so a new excuse for no new shipping lanes must be found. Note, CO2 lacks the warming power to melt the Arctic.]
Last month of Arctic spring fails to bring sea ice to its knees, even in Southern Hudson Bay
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 11, 2024
It’s getting harder and harder for Derocher and colleagues to ignore the fact that their assumptions about sea ice concentration and polar bear behavior were flat-out wrong. This year, some WH bears could again remain on the ice until August, despite what has been, on paper, the earliest breakup year on record for Hudson Bay sea ice.
Changing Earth
Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming
By Javier Vinós, Climate Etc. July 5, 2024
Lowering Standards
IEA calls for next national climate plans to target coal phase-down
Countries have agreed to reduce power generated from coal, but shutting down plants is an economic and social challenge, especially in emerging economies
By Joe Lo, Climate Home News, June 25, 2024
In 2021, the Glasgow Climate Pact, agreed at the COP26 UN climate summit, called on countries for the first time to accelerate efforts “towards the phase-down of unabated coal power”. “Unabated” means power produced using coal without any technology to capture, store or use the planet-heating carbon dioxide emitted during the process.
[SEPP Comment: “Fatih Birol is a Turkish economist and energy expert, who has served as the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) since 1 September 2015.” Rather than just report energy issues, IEA is engaged in political propaganda.] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatih_Birol]
The climate science #socialfeedbackloop Part II: Nice career you have there
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Link to Part I: https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2024/07/03/the-climate-science-socialfeedbackloop-part-i-bracing-for-impact/
What Happened To That “Wettest Summer”, Met Office?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 3, 2024
Met Office Still Opening Junk Weather Stations
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 5, 2024
As we know, 77.9% of the Met Office’s temperature station network is junk Class 4 and 5.
But how many of these have been added in recent years?
The Met Office have now sent me a full list of stations, showing both Class and opening date. Since 2000, 58 stations have been added, out of a current total of 380. However, only nine are acceptable Class 1 and 2s:
[SEPP Comment: 84% of the new stations are substandard?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Media Reports Earth’s ‘1.5C Temperature limit’ was ‘breached for 12 months in a row’ – Nothing Bad Happened
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, July 10, 2024
NOAA’s June 2024 Climate Data Shows No “Record High” U.S. Maximum Temperature Anomaly or Absolute Temperatures Occurred Despite Flawed Alarmist Claims Portrayed in Media Political Hype
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, July 11, 2024
A Beryl of monkeys
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Taking climate mountain by wet drought
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
So, about that heatwave
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate Fueled Extreme Weather
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, July 2, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-fueled-extreme-weather?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=146174459&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Neither climate nor climate change cause, fuel, or influence weather.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
No, USA Today, Rising Seas Aren’t to Blame for ‘disappearance of rare cactus in Florida’
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, July 10, 2024
No, CBS News, New York City Isn’t Going to Be Flooded by Sea Level Rise
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, July 3, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
YAWN!!–Climate Change Pushing Up Food Prices (Again!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 3, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The flourishing of green plants is increasing food prices?]
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
It’s never just summer anymore
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Rafha, Record High: 54°C (130°F) on August 25, 2006
https://www.plantmaps.com/en/sa/climate/extremes/c/saudi-arabia-record-high-low-temperatures
Not climate science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 10, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Claim: Teachers Should Add “Truthful Hope” to Moderate Child Climate Trauma
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 10, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
A Clown Show in Court: The Conviction of Just Stop Oil Protestors
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 11, 2024
‘You’re Utterly Ignorant’: Ted Cruz Lights Up Climate Protesters Interrupting His Speech
By Nick Pope, Dailly Caller, July 12, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/12/ted-cruz-climate-protesters-ignorant-speech
Expanding the Orthodoxy
NATO’s Jejune Climate Risk Assessment Ignores the Real Threats to The West
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, July 10, 2024
Questioning European Green
Farage bursts the green bubble
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 3, 2024
This is a great analysis, not just of the fact that renewables cost much more than fossil fuels, but also of the political and media response:
Farage Attacks Net Zero With Facts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 6, 2024
Finally, we’ve got some common sense in Parliament!
Europe’s Green Energy Plans Stall As Leading Companies Reduce Expansion Plans
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 3, 2024
Blackout News is operated by an independent and non-partisan small group of engineers with experience in energy management.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Climate Orthodoxy’s Senseless Punishment
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 5, 2024
None of it makes sense, particularly when juxtaposed against the massive and growing emissions of such gases from new coal plants in India and China. Western governments are punishing their citizens for no good reason.
Electric Maybe-land
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
Jesse Ausubel: Renewables Are Not Green
By Staff, Real Clear Energy, July 10, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/10/when_green_energy_is_not_green_1043644.html
Link to: The Energy Future Forum – 2024
By Staff, Real Clear Politics, July 2, 2024
Mining the planet for renewable energy
Reliable energy, human rights, land impacts, air and water pollution, lost wildlife get ignored
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, July 2, 2024
The Net Zero Agenda Threatens Your Future Clothing Purchases
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 5, 2024
Green Jobs
VW says Audi’s Brussels factory could close as EV demand drops
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 12, 2024
The Political Games Continue
Climate-Skeptic Reform Party Takes A Third Of The Tory Vote In The UK Election
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, July 6, 2024
Farage wins in the UK, taking 14% across the country: “The Revolt against the establishment is underway”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 5, 2024
Litigation Issues
Climate change craziness has a new target and it’s more shocking than ever
Having struck out with consumers, businesses and at the ballot box, green advocates are moving on to a shocking new tactic
By Stephen Moore, Fox News, June 30, 2024
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/climate-change-craziness-has-new-target-its-more-shocking-than-ever
There, a group of 13 teenagers — honest, I’m not making this up — sued Hawaii’s government over its use of fossil fuels. Environmental law firms Our Children’s Trust and Earthjustice claim that Hawaii’s natural resources are imperiled by CO2 emissions. Even if that were true, shouldn’t they be suing China?
But what none of these judges or litigators take into account is the catastrophic economic effects of NOT using fossil fuels.
‘Goes Beyond The Limits’: Judge Throws Out Blue City’s Climate Case Against Oil Giants
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 11, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/11/baltimore-climate-lawsuit-tossed-oil-companies
Thinking Out Loud: The Chevron Doctrine
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, ACSH, July 3, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/07/03/thinking-out-loud-chevron-doctrine-48846
Delaware’s Travesty: Junk Science Taints Science-Phobic Judges
Last month, a Delaware judge undid the 30 years of progress the law has made in excluding junk science in the courtroom.
By Barbara Pfeffer Billauer JD MA (Occ. Health) PhD, ACSH, July 1, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/07/01/delawares-travesty-junk-science-taints-science-phobic-judges-48839
While the defendants properly castigated the court for her warm and fuzzy hospitality message to the plaintiffs’ bar, this is hardly the proper objection to be raised on appeal. Instead, the judge should be called out for cherry-picking and misrepresenting the legal standards most courts require in a Daubert analysis. By picking the loosest evidentiary requirements across various criteria (the Chinese menu method of analysis), the court idiosyncratically morphs into a ‘donkey-like’ Daubert, undoing three decades of legal progress.
The Political Suicide of Pushing “Climate Homicide” … & muscling in on someone else’s “ExxonKnew” lawsuits territory?
By Russel Cook, GelbspanFiles.com, July 8, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
A Permanent Subsidy? Nuclear Power’s Price-Anderson Act (5 Extensions, 89 years)
By Robert Bradley Jr.., Master Resource, July 10. 2024
FITs Cost £1.7bn Last Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 3, 2024
A few years ago, the OBR [UK Office for Budget Responsibility] stopped including Feed in Tariffs in the cost of Environmental Levies. They gave no good reason, and quite clearly, they are as much of a levy on energy bills as other renewable subsidies:
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Chief Insists His Agency Has Not Sent ‘One Dime’ To Hardline Left-Wing Org — But There’s A $50 Million Problem
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 10, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/10/michael-regan-nancy-mace-climate-justice-alliance-epa-50-million
Despite Regan’s statements, Climate Justice Alliance] [CJA is still listed on the agency’s website as a recipient of $50 million in taxpayer cash via the EPA’s “Environmental Justice Thriving Communities Grantmaking Program,” which is designed for recipients including CJA to act as pass-through grantmakers to fund other groups pursuing “environmental justice.”
Hot Facts about Heat – Follow-up
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 5, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Trying to get EPA to produce honest data?]
New US-EU Methane Rules Won’t Affect Temperatures
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, July 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment; Another mindless Washington regulation. Should swamp gas be taxed?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Energy notes from the edge: AI latest – the energy beast is fully unleashed; and when a Bee gets an A – an insect skill set could benefit humans in an incredible way
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, July 2, 2024
At the Aspen Ideas Festival, Ford CEO Jim Farley gave a lengthy talk about EVs, and how they are the future, and the media lapped it up, with every news outlet that covered the story zeroing in on Farley’s positive view of EV growth. Leave it to wise and thoughtful independent observers to pick up the nuance: energy analyst extraordinaire Dan Tsubouchi noted Farley’s alarm midway through the talk, something no one else seemed to: “Our grid can’t handle what we have today. Are we going to build 20% more power plants to handle all these AI data centers? Or are the companies going to start to create their own power centers? What do we feel as a society when a private company operates a private power plant?”
[SEPP Comment: Is it better to require a data centers to power themselves than obligating the public to power them under the disguise that they will be powered by wind and solar?]
Disturbing record of Labour’s Net Zero guru
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 12, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/disturbing-record-of-labours-net-zero-guru
Link to report: The Scandalous Climate Change Committee
By David Turver, Net Zero Watch, 2024
Miliband overrules officials with immediate ban on new North Sea oil
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 12, 2024
“In an unusual intervention into what is typically an apolitical process, the Energy Secretary has decided that regulators will not approve a round of drilling in new oil fields that was slated for confirmation in the coming weeks.”
The ‘ECO-ZEALOT at the heart of Government’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 12, 2024
Now the Labour Government is desperately trying to backtrack. It is clear that they are embarrassed by Miliband’s crass decision.
For them to pretend that this was a “complete fabrication” is an outright lie. The statement from the North Sea Transition Authority was clear enough:
“We will not issue new licenses to explore new fields and will not revoke existing oil and gas licenses. We will manage existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan”
Starmer is holding a Net Zero time bomb [New PM UK]
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 8, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/starmer-net-zero-time-bomb
Eventually, everyone in the Westminster bubble will accept that extreme decarbonisation was a historic and catastrophic mistake. When they are ready, Net Zero Watch is happy to talk to anyone who wants to understand how to put things right – from MPs to ministers to trades unionists to civil society groups.
Energy Issues – Australia
$100m wasted? Gas plant revved up after five years on standby — another hidden cost of renewable energy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 3, 2024
Proposed renewable energy projects across Queensland
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 11, 2024
Energy Issues — US
Report: Nine essential principles for the power grid
Press Release, Paige Lambermont, Competitive Enterprise Institute, July 7, 2024
https://cei.org/news_releases/report-nine-essential-principles-for-the-power-grid
Link to report: How to Keep the Lights On Nine principles for electrical grid reliability
By Paige Lambermont, CEI, July 10, 2024
From report: Avoiding blackouts and other reliability issues should be the highest priority of lawmakers when it comes to electricity because the human cost of blackouts is incredibly high. Electricity is needed for almost every facet of our lives. Indeed, modern life would not be possible without it. Policymakers should be cognizant of the fact that the stakes are high.
U.S. Urban Air Pollution Trends: Fossil Fuel Ecology
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 11, 2024
Link to report: Our Nation’s Air Quality: Trends through 2022
By Staff, EPA, 2023
https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2023/#introduction
Clean Means Nothing Without Affordable and Reliable
By Staff, The Empowerment Alliance, Accessed July 12, 2024
The U.S. has enough natural gas to power the nation for more than a century—and the potential for even more.
Google’s Net Zero Plans Are Going Up In Smoke
For years, the search giant has touted its alt-energy deals and net zero plans. But these four charts show that Google’s electricity use, CO2 emissions, and carbon intensity, are soaring.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, July 7, 2024
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/googles-net-zero-plans-are-going-up-in-smoke
Google emissions surge nearly 50% as demand for AI sets fire to their Net Zero plan
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 4, 2024
The World must act, The Science is clear say Google, but Armageddon will have to wait while they make money from AI
U.S. Solar and Wind Power Generation Tops Nuclear for First Time
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, July 11, 2024
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Solar-and-Wind-Power-Generation-Tops-Nuclear-for-First-Time.html
[SEPP Comment: How much does its backup cost?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
The Balkans’ Energy Dilemma and the North America LNG Solution
By Željko Komšić, Real Clear Energy, July 09, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/09/the_balkans_energy_dilemma_and_the_north_america_lng_solution_1043361.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Products Made from Oil and Gas
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 1, 2024
“Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas make the manufacturing of over 6,000 everyday products and high-tech devices possible.” — U.S. DOE [Boldface added]
Why the EU needs US liquefied natural gas
By John M. Roberts and Ariel Cohen, Atlantic Council, Global Energy Center, July 2024
Keep This Party Going – An Update On Canada’s West Coast LNG Export Projects
By Martin King, RBN Energy, July 10, 2024
https://rbnenergy.com/keep-this-party-going-update-on-canadas-west-coast-lng-export-projects
[SEPP Comment: So much for the Canadian PM who told Germany there was no export market for Canadian natural gas.]
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Norfolk Southern Really Screwed Up The East Palestine Train Derailment
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, July 7, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/07/07/norfolk-southern-really-screwed-east-palestine-train-derailment-48842
“Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) is an IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer) group 1 carcinogen known to cause hepatic angiosarcoma (HAS) in highly exposed industrial workers.”
The same holds true for other conditions that can arise from chronic, but not acute, exposure to the chemical:
“One-time acute exposures to VCM, causing mild symptoms such as dizziness and headaches, have not been proven to propagate long-term effects.” [Boldface in original]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nature vs. nuclear: the economics of renewable energy
Originally published in Canberra Daily, July 2024
By Alan Moran, Regulatory Review, July 13, 2024
https://amoran.substack.com/p/nature-vs-nuclear-the-economics-of?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1824724&post_id=146565209&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
World’s Most Populous Nation Has Put Solar Out To Pasture. Other Countries Should Follow Suit
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 12, 2024
The transformation of Dharnai in the state of Bihar into a “solar village” was marked by great enthusiasm and high expectations. …The news of this Greenpeace initiative quickly spread as international news media showcased it as a success story for “renewable” energy in a third world country. CNN International’s “Connect the World” said Dharnai’s micro-grid provided a continuous supply of electricity…. A village shopkeeper said: “But after three years, the batteries were exhausted, and it was never repaired. … No one uses solar power anymore here.” Hopefully, the solar panels will last longer as shelter for cows…. Eventually, the village was connected to the main grid, which provided fully reliable coal-powered electricity at a third of the price of the solar power.
Industrial Wind Power: Infant Industry Not
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 12, 2024
Labour’s wind expansion will be ‘astonishingly wasteful’
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 9, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/labour-wind-expansion-expensive
Offshore Wind Demand Bigger Subsidies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 12, 2024
The renewable lobby group Ember have a very close relationship with Labour, who have based their whole energy strategy on Ember’s make believe projections.
One Of Biden’s Favorite Green Industries To Miss 2030 Target By Years Despite Billions In Subsidies, Report Finds
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 9, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/09/offshore-wind-2030-target-biden-miss-american-clean-power
Link to report: 2024 Offshore Wind Energy Market Report
By Staff, American Clean Power Association (ACP), 2024
[SEPP Comment: Green subsidies produce press releases, not jobs.]
The east is green
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 3, 2024
“The Delta wind project is using Vestas turbines with blades that can, at their highest point, reach 692 feet – making them the tallest onshore turbines in the country, according to AES.”
Hideous. Plus, no bird is safe. Supposedly they’re “anchored to unique foundations specifically designed for support in the swampy, soft soil along the Mississippi River and to accommodate crop production.” Unless they’re not. And think of the concrete footprint alone, not to mention trying to dispose of that junk when it wears out. But still, what price good PR for Amazon, which is behind the project?
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
German Professor Shows That The Road To Green Hydrogen Is Long, Expensive
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 29, 2024
Vast salt caverns to store hydrogen under former Royal Navy base
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 1, 2024
Of course, the real story here is the subsidies that the project is demanding.
Nowhere does [reporter] Jonathan Leake actually [state?] how much taxpayers are going to have to stump up for this.
Worse still he does not even question how enormously expensive producing hydrogen actually is.
Instead, we get this schoolboy analysis of how wonderful renewables and hydrogen are.
Just another example of how pitifully poor the Telegraph’s reporting has become.
Shell to pause Dutch biofuels project as market sags
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 2, 2024
There is no viable commercial market for biofuels. It only survives because of government subsidies and diktat.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Junk Science Week — Ross McKitrick: EV mandates don’t make economic sense
If electric vehicles sell only when gas ones are banned, your policy is generating more cost than benefit for producers and consumers
By Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, Canada, June 26, 2024
https://financialpost.com/opinion/ev-mandates-dont-make-economic-sense
Power Outages Bring Hurricane of EV Buyers’ Remorse
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, July 12, 2024
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/hurricane-power-outage-electric-vehicles/2024/07/12/id/1172233
EV Boosters Cannot Do Math
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, July 08, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/08/ev_boosters_cannot_do_math_1043078.html
The Nationwide 500,000 EV Charger Charade
By Geoffrey Pohanka, Real Clear Energy, July 03, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/03/the_nationwide_500000_ev_charger_charade_1041900.html
The stations completed so far cost significantly more than what has been promised. With retailers contributing land to the projects opened so far, the cost of each station has averaged one-million dollars, with the government participation of 80% of the cost. Eight-hundred-thousand dollars for each station is significantly more than the $15,000 committed by the administration. At this rate, the 500,000 charging stations will cost the government $400 billion, not the $7.5 billion the President has promised.
[SEPP Comment: Washington math: Cost 53 times more than claimed.]
EV Chargers Face Significant Reliability, Accessibility Problems, Harvard Study Finds
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 1, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/01/electric-vehicle-chargers-reliability-accessibility-problems-harvard-study
Link to report: A Generative AI Approach to Pricing Mechanisms and Consumer Behavior in the Electric Vehicle Charging Market
By Sarthak Chaturvedi, Edward W. Chen, Ila P. Sharma, and Omar Isaac Asensio, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, 2023
https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI-SS/article/view/27649/27422
[SEPP Comment: All the authors are associated with Georgia Tech, only the last author is also associated with Harvard.]
Battery maker SK [South Korea] On declares ‘emergency’ as EV sales disappoint
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 8, 2024
Building a business reliant on subsidies is like building houses on quicksand!
EV Sales Continue To Stagnate
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 10, 2024
Carbon Schemes
Is Carbon Capture Big Oil’s Next Pay Day?
By Craig B. Smith & William D. Fletcher, Real Clear Energy, July 09, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/07/09/is_carbon_capture_big_oils_next_pay_day_1043389.html
The first plant, known as Orca, was developed by a company called Climeworks and opened in Iceland in 2021. This plant has the added advantage that it is powered by geothermal energy, so it does not release greenhouse gases during operation. It has capacity for capturing 4,000 metric tons of CO2 per year at a recovery cost of $600-$800 per metric ton.
[SEPP Comment: Another waste of money to appease those who oppose increasing photosynthesis.]
World’s largest vacuum to suck carbon out of the sky (and money out of wallets)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 12, 2024
“It’s essentially a SodaStream on steroids,” says Douglas Chan, COO of Climeworks. Absorption water is injected at the top of the tower and trickles down through packing that fills the column. The water dissolves the CO2 coming up through the bottom of the tower producing a pressurized mix that is ready for injection underground through two onsite wells operated by project partner Carbfix. Deep under the earth it reacts with the rock, becoming mineralized, locking up the emissions for long-term storage.
Jan Wurzbacher, Climeworks CEO, said: “Within two years, the CO2 has become solid carbonate rock, 800m underground where it will stay for the next couple of millions of years for sure.”
[SEPP Comment: Doubt it! At most a political show.]
California Dreaming
California’s Water Economy – Challenges and Opportunities
By Edward Ring, What’s Current? July 10, 2024
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-377898?e=cd9fa89d1e
Link to: Water Distribution in the State of California
By Amrith Gunasekara, California Bountiful Foundation. California Farm Bureau, March 2023
Major Utility Provider Cuts Thousands Of Customers’ Power To Prevent Wildfires From Breaking Out
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 2, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/02/pacific-gas-electric-power-cut-wildfire-risks
[SEPP Comment: Classic methods such as fire breaks and non-flammable roofs would be better.]
Environmental Industry
Wildlife officials plan to kill hundreds of thousands of barred owls to save spotted owls
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 3, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4753992-wildlife-officials-plan-to-kill-hundreds-of-thousands-barred-owls
[SEPP Comment: The real threat to the northern spotted owl, not the false claim of cutting old growth forests.]
Other Scientific News
The Fourth Phase of Water. And the Engines of Life.
By Gerald H. Pollack, DDP 42nd Annual Meeting, July 6, 2024
Video
Other News that May Be of Interest
The Rejection of Environmentalism is a driving force behind the surging “Far Right” vote
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 2, 2024
PS: Forgive me, I forgot to mention the obvious, but it needs to be said: “Far Right” and “Extreme Right”, as applied to a third of the population, are just the fake labels of the word-smithing liars on the left. Sleepy voters in the middle may be fooled by this cheap name-calling tactic, scared of voting for something “extreme”. But liars are vulnerable — every time we point out the lie, they pay the price.
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Global Warming in Nevada
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 12, 2024
[SEPP Comment: At least the hot thermometer is not on the runway but may be getting jet blasts from the almost perpendicular runway!]
London To Relocate To South of France!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 9, 2024
Saving The Climate With Soy
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 11, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Yarra City Council, a Melbourne inner city suburb, unanimously passed it 81-page Climate Emergency Plan asking its residents to switch to a vegetarian diet.]
Professor: Economic Benefits will Drive Climate Action Despite Skepticism
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 11, 2024
Subtle Propaganda
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 7, 2024
You will buy the batteries that unreliable wind and solar need, but the government will own them…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 11, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Your EV will become part of the battery backup for the grid – for how many seconds?]
NO ARTICLES THIS WEEK
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