The Week That Was: 2022-09-17 (September 17, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Before you make a case a general rule, test it two or three times and observe whether all experiments produce identical results.” – Leonardo da Vinci.
Number of the Week: Less than 0.2°C, 0.4°F
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: CLINTEL published an interview with William van Wijngaarden of York University giving further insights on the greenhouse effect, among other issues. Van Wijngaarden has authored several important papers with William Happer on the warming effects of major greenhouse gases including methane, carbon dioxide, and water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas. Their papers in 2022 are “2n-Stream Radiative Transfer” (June), employing a new method to solve the radiative transfer phenomena and “2n-Stream Conservative Scattering” (July), which uses the matrix methods of quantum mechanics to calculate the radiative transfer in clouds. This may lead to an understanding of the formation and dispersion of clouds, an important unknown in the influence of the greenhouse effect on earth’s temperatures. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers largely ignore spectroscopy, the branch of physics dealing with the detection of electromagnetic radiation from atoms. Thus, it is doubtful these papers will receive the attention they deserve. Discussed below is some of the current thinking by van Wijngaarden.
Also discussed is William Kininmonth’s report on the Greenhouse Effect. He was the head of Australia’s National Climate Centre before it lost its way. Kininmonth uses the MODTRAN computer program to demonstrate that the contribution of carbon dioxides to the greenhouse effect is minimal. He discusses the importance of energy flow by ocean currents.
Craig Idso has an essay on the benefits of carbon dioxide and what may become the remarkably high costs of carbon taxes.
The twenty-seventh Conference of Parties (COP-27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is fast approaching and the baseless drumbeat that a binding agreement controlling emissions of carbon dioxide by Western Countries must be signed has begun. One focus is how cheap electricity will become with wind, solar, and hydrogen storage. The study comes from Oxford University’s Institute for New Economic Thinking – and can be best described as “build a mathematical model and the physical reality obeying it will magically appear! Comments on this new form of thinking are presented.
Meteorologist Cliff Mass has an essay demonstrating that the smoke from wildfires in the Pacific Northwest is hardly unprecedented, as claimed in many reports.
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No Dangerous Warming: William van Wijngaarden was interviewed by Jan van Friesland of CLINTEL. Below is an edited version of some of the questions and responses (in italics) with boldface added.
“We know CO2 absorbs radiation. Can you explain what CO2 absorption is, precisely, and why this absorption is responsible for warming the atmosphere?”
“It is important to first understand that all objects radiate energy known as Black Body Radiation, which increases very rapidly with the absolute temperature. The absolute and Celsius temperatures are related by T(Kelvin) = T(C) + 273. Hence, 0 C corresponds to 273 Kelvins. This means that a hot object like the sun radiates orders of magnitude more energy than an object such as the Earth. The energy is radiated across a spectrum of wavelengths. For the sun with a surface temperature of about 6000 Kelvins, the peak radiation occurs at visible wavelengths. For the Earth with an average surface temperature of 15 C or 288 K, the radiation is in the infrared and has maximum intensity close to the frequency (667 cm‑1 or 15 mm) where CO2 strongly absorbs.”
The CO2 molecule is a linear molecule where an oxygen atom is on either side of the carbon atom. When the CO2 absorbs infrared light at 667 cm-1, it vibrates such that it bends, i.e., the Oxygen atoms flop up and down relative to the carbon atom. In addition, the CO2 molecule like other atmospheric molecules such as O2, N2 etc. moves about at speeds of hundreds of meters per second. Collisions occur very frequently resulting in internal energy of the molecule being transferred to translational motion. Temperature can be thought of as a measure of the translational energy.
“Why doesn’t CO2 absorb more and as a result causes very little warming?”
“The Earth’s atmosphere already has a lot of CO2 which causes the absorption at 667 cm-1 to be saturated. Doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm will increase the temperature by about 1 C. Saturation means the temperature increase depends on the logarithm of the CO2 concentration change. To get an additional 1 C warming, CO2 would need to double again from 800 to 1600 ppm. At the present rate of increase of 2 ppm/year, it would take about 2 centuries to double CO2 to 800 ppm.”
“How about the feedback of CO2 – water vapor? Mainstream models estimate a very high positive feedback. Is that exaggerated estimation not responsible for the catastrophic predictions about global warming?”
“Doubling CO2 is predicted to increase the surface temperature by nearly 1 C. This amount is something that is quite well understood, and we have confirmed it in our calculations. Warmer air can contain more water vapor (something Chemists call the Clausius Clapeyron equation). That is obvious because large amounts of precipitation occur only when it is hot and humid. Similarly, large snowfalls occur when the temperature is near the freezing point, not when it is extremely cold.
Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. The reason is that it absorbs radiation at many more wavelengths than CO2 and the atmosphere contains nearly 100 times more H2O than CO2 molecules. Without water vapor, the Earth would be covered in ice and life would not be possible. The question is, how will atmospheric water vapor change if there is a small temperature increase caused by CO2 doubling. This is known as the water feedback effect and is difficult to estimate. The amplification of the 1 C warming generated by doubling CO2 range from none for the case of no change in atmospheric H2O to about 60% if one assumes that relative humidity will not change. When faced with different theoretical predictions, one needs to observe the atmosphere. Observations made using high altitude balloons and satellites do not show significant increase in water vapor over the past 50 years.
The preceding discussion refers to water vapor not CLOUDS. One can ask if more atmospheric water vapor, will produce more clouds, thicker clouds, higher level Cirrus as opposed to lower-level Cumulus clouds. Clouds definitely affect temperature. During the day, temperatures decrease when a cloud blocks the sun whereas at night clouds warm the surface. Everyone realizes that clouds are critical to what will happen to the climate. Unfortunately, our understanding of this subject is in its infancy.”
“Why is the role of oceans important to understand climate?”
“A liquid such as water has a much higher density than air and can therefore absorb much more thermal energy which is transported by ocean currents. The most well-known is the Gulf Stream that transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. This is the reason why countries such as Nederland [Netherlands] experience a much warmer climate than areas at similar latitude such as Labrador.
“Sea surface ocean temperatures vary in time. One of the best known is the so called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which describes a change of the sea surface temperature in the southern Pacific. Sometimes a deep pool of warm water near Australia spreads out towards South America. This in turn warms the air leading to significant precipitation changes along the west coast of North and South America. Unfortunately, predicting ENSO as well as other oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is not possible. These temperature variations have been known for centuries. In the case of the NAO, the Vikings knew that relatively cold European winters corresponded to warmer winters in Greenland/Iceland and vice versa.”
“In your book “Is Global Warming Hot Air?” you write that many climate scientists don’t question the correctness of climate models themselves. Why do they take it for granted that models always do function well?”
It is unfortunate that many climate researchers do not question the climate models especially when the observations conflict with predictions. One of the best-known failures was that the average global temperature stopped increasing after 2000 which is called the hiatus. Constructing a global climate model necessitates estimating a myriad of parameters. Science has always progressed by comparing theory to observation. If the theory is wrong, it must be refined. I do not question the sincerity of the modelers, but an accurate climate model is very challenging.
After discussing topics such as plants grow faster with increasing CO2, van Wijngaarden concludes with:
“One has to be patient and politely point out how the observations support/differ from climate models. The worst thing for the climate fanatics would be if governments implement their espoused policies. Once, people see oil and natural gas taxes spiral upwards, they will rebel. The taxes will be decreased, and the regulations delayed.
Like most people, I want to protect and improve our environment. I am also very supportive of energy conservation and expanding research. Unfortunately, developing a better battery has proved to be a difficult undertaking even after a century of effort. Similarly, a better understanding of the climate using more extensive satellite monitoring as well as land and ocean measurements should be a very high international priority.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, the June and July papers contain advanced mathematics.
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Ocean Currents: In “Rethinking The Greenhouse Effect” William Kininmonth uses the MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) computer program to demonstrate that ocean currents are especially important in the flow of heat energy and increasing CO2 is not particularly important. MODTRAN is designed to model atmospheric propagation of electromagnetic radiation and has been in wide use for decades. MODTRAN is not as precise as the HITRAN database used by van Wijngaarden and Happer. Although they use different databases and different approaches, the thinking of all these researchers appears to be aligned. Additional carbon dioxide will not cause dangerous global warming and climate modelers have failed to understand the complexity of variation internal to the earth’s climate system. The preface to the report states:
“The pattern of recent global warming underscores the validity of what meteorologists widely recognized: the oceans are the vital inertial and thermal flywheels of the climate system. The corollary is, if one wants to control climate, it will be necessary to control the oceans. Efforts to decarbonize in the hope of affecting global temperatures will be in vain.’
According to Kininmonth:
“The temperature of the warm ocean is affected by four energy flows:
• absorption of shortwave radiation direct from the sun
• loss of heat and latent energy to the atmosphere
• loss of heat via ocean currents.”
What is important, is the heat loss from the tropics.
“Over the tropics, the heat and latent energy from the ocean surface remains in the lowest layer of the atmosphere below the clouds, and the trade winds draw it into the Equatorial Trough – a narrow band of latitudes close to the equator (the Doldrums, in common parlance). As the heat builds up in this region, deep convection clouds form and it is these that transport heat upwards into higher layers of the atmosphere, where the winds distribute the heat poleward.
The transport of heat upwards through this deep convection process creates a tight link between the temperature of the tropical atmosphere and that of the ocean surface below. Figure 2 [not included here] shows the coherence of the atmosphere and ocean surface temperatures. The correlation between the detrended records is 0.86, albeit with a one- to two-month delay in the atmosphere’s response.
The temperatures in both records change markedly from year to year – at times by up to 1°C. These changes are associated with changes in the ocean circulation associated with the El Niño and La Niña events. Superimposed on this short-term variability, there have been long-term warming trends of about 0.1°C per decade in both records. The effect of the warming is two-fold:
• the increased warmth in the tropical atmosphere is a source of additional energy and increases the rate of heat transport to higher latitudes.
• the warmer oceans increase the flow of latent energy to the atmosphere.
The latent energy is not immediately apparent but will be seen in the warming at higher latitudes.”
He then discusses Arctic warming before concluding:
“The characteristics of recent climate change and its cause are clear. The tropical oceans have warmed, not as a result of additional atmospheric carbon dioxide but most likely because of a reduction in the transport of heat, as ocean currents slow. The warmer tropical oceans have raised the temperature of the tropical atmosphere in turn, in particular through the medium of deep equatorial convection clouds. Additional energy flowing from the warmer tropical oceans has been transported by the winds to enhance polar warming, especially in the winter months.
“Put another way, recent warming is probably simply the result of a fluctuation in the ever-changing ocean circulation; carbon dioxide must be recognized as a very minor contributor to the observed warming and one that is unlikely to prolong the warming trend beyond the peak generated by the natural oceanic oscillations.
“There has been much speculation that the recent warming trend will generate extreme weather events dangerous to humankind. The evidence is not compelling. The greatest warming has been over high northern latitudes, when temperatures are well below freezing. It will therefore be unlikely to have any appreciable impact on flora or fauna. Notwithstanding this, the impacts of both short- and medium-term shifts in natural oscillations, such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, will continue, and adequate preparedness remain essential.” These comments are followed by the quotation cited above. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Cost of CO2 Removal: Craig Idso addresses an issue few people ever thought about. What would be the costs to society of removing CO2 from the atmosphere? He addresses the costs through carbon dioxide taxation resulting in higher energy prices. Idso states:
“Consequently, any commodity or product downstream of energy production will be impacted by higher costs—ergo we have at least one significant downside to enacting CO2 emission reduction schemes.
“Nowhere is this more evident than in the agricultural sector of the economy, which relies on low-cost energy to produce food and other products necessary to sustaining life on the planet. As the costs to produce agricultural products increase, those costs are passed on to the consumer, thereby reducing disposable household income, which reduction also disproportionately burdens the poor.”
He goes through several carbon dioxide pricing schemes showing that the costs can be severe. This type of thinking is sorely lacking in what government planners call “cost-benefit” studies. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Economic Fantasies: COP-27 will start on November 6, 2022, in the resort town Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. No doubt many wealthy people will show their concern for the poor by arriving in their expensive, diesel-powered yachts. Already we are seeing questionable studies on the evils of carbon dioxide, so needed for life on this planet. Perhaps the most absurd one so far is from the Oxford University Institute for New Economic Thinking claiming that the costs of wind and solar power and use of hydrogen for storage of electricity are plunging.
Henry Ford greatly reduced the cost of automobiles and improved the quality by using standardized parts and assembly-line production. All too frequently, economists claim similar reductions will occur by expanding production without determining if standardization and more efficient assembly-lines are possible. So, it appears with the Institute for New Economic Thinking in “Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition.”
Assembly lines for the production of wind turbines exist. But each site requires site-specific construction. Worse, wind turbines require the rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium and as well as cobalt. Rare earths are so named not necessarily because they are rare, but because they are not found in concentrations such as iron and copper are. Extracting them requires tremendous earth moving and it is doubtful that assembly-line conditions can be successfully applied. Already, the costs of rare earths are increasing, not falling.
Approximately 70% of Cobalt comes from the Congo, under child-labor working conditions that were banned in Victorian Era UK. Contrary to the Institute for New Economic Thinking there is no reason to assume the costs of wind turbines will fall greatly. Any estimate of the cost of hydrogen storage of electricity is pure guesswork.
Andrew Montford, Paul Homewood, and Francis Menton have further comments on these “empirically grounded forecasts.” See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Twain Agrees: Meteorologist Cliff Mass has an amusing story about Mark Twain and his visit to Olympia, Washington, in 1895, which was engulfed in thick smoke when Twain was there to give a speech. There is nothing new about smoke generated by wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. What is new is a “let it burn” policy which has taken over from a policy of fire suppression that lasted about 50 years. See link under Changing Weather.
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Virginia Energy Plan, 2022: On behalf of SEPP, long time resident of Virginia Ken Haapala submitted comments on the new Virginia Energy Plan. The comments include:
“Virginia’s 2018 energy plan was aligned with the California’s net-zero plan. Indeed, legislation was passed stating that Virginia would follow the appointed bureaucrats of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the sale of new automobiles. CARB has banned the sale of new gasoline powered automobiles by 2035 with the phase out beginning in 2026. This is a total abrogation of legislative responsibility of Virginia government to out-of-state bureaucrats with no accountability to the citizens of Virginia.”
Worse, the 2020 Virginia Clean Economy Act requires the state to replace all fossil fuel generated electricity with renewable energy by 2045. The legislature and the governor had no understanding of what is required to replace fossil fuels and the cost of such action.
Many Virginia politicians talk of high-tech manufacturing such as computer chips. Computer chip manufacturing requires 100% reliable electricity within very tight tolerances for 4 to 8 weeks, depending on the complexity of the chip. A slight hic-up and the entire production line (one to two months of product) is lost. Wind and solar cannot provide reliable electricity.
The comments conclude:
“There is no demonstration that wind, solar, and storage can deliver the reliable and affordable electricity within tight tolerances civilization needs. Continuing to assume they do is a waste of resources.
“There is no energy crisis and no climate crisis. The models use to declare a climate crisis are highly flawed and unfit for predictions.
“Virginia Energy Plan, 2022 is a solid replacement for Virginia Energy Plan, 2018 which contained multiple false beliefs. It benefits the citizens of Virginia with realistic critical thinking rather than dreams.”
As of yet, the full comments have not been posted on the government website but should be within a few days: https://townhall.virginia.gov/L/comments.cfm?GeneralNoticeid=2442
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Number of the Week: Less than 0.2°C, 0.4°F: In the chapter “Pit Vipers”of Snakes – a natural history for the British Museum (Natural History) there is a discussion on the precision of pit vipers using sensitive senses in their pits. The discussion includes the following sentence:
“Experiments have shown that pit vipers, deprived of their senses of sight and smell, can strike accurately at moving objects that are less than 0.2°C warmer than their surroundings.”
According to research on ocean sediments, in the over 20 million years since pit vipers evolved, the earth’s atmosphere has had CO2 concentrations up to 800 parts per million, which is twice that of today. Yet pit vipers have thrived despite the great variations in CO2 because have long taken advantage of the “atmospheric window” where greenhouse gases do not influence the loss of surface heat, infrared radiation, to space. Yet, climate alarmists do not recognize the “atmospheric window.” See links under Changing Seas and Other News that May Be of Interest.
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Refutation of the Forgotten-Sunshine Theory
By Joe Born, WUWT, Sep 12, 2022
Rebuttal: Climate F-Words
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 22, 2028
Spencer’s rebuttal concludes: “But nowhere does the sensitivity of modern 3D climate models depend upon any feedback equations.
“Now, if I have misrepresented Lord Monckton’s argument, I apologize. But I am having difficulty determining exactly what his argument is, and how it affects the processes specified in climate models. Maybe someone can help me. We can agree that the models are too sensitive, but we must make sure our arguments for their excessive sensitivity make sense, or we will continue to be dismissed out of hand by the mainstream climate community.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Interview with William van Wijngaarden
By Jan van Friesland, CLINTEL.org, Accessed Sep 7, 2022
2n-Stream Radiative Transfer
W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, June 1, 2022
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2022/09/Arxiv-June-1-2022.pdf?x45936
Rethinking The Greenhouse Effect
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 16, 2022
Link to report: Rethinking The Greenhouse Effect
By William Kininmonth, GWPF, 2022
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/09/Kininmonth-Greenhouse-Effect.pdf?mc_cid=11fd70dcd2&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
Global Decarbonization: Negative Agricultural Impacts
By Craig D. Idso, Master Resource, Sep 15, 2022
Pakistan’s floods and the climate attribution con
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Sep 16, 2022
“How can the scientific community, and those interested in the subtleties and realities of climate communication justify being so misleading? How can journalists stand to distort scientific ambiguity using faux certainty to support a climate narrative abandoning any sense of journalistic rigour?”
Climate Hysteria: A Mass Delusion to Demonize Carbon Dioxide
By Jerome Corsi, American Thinker, Sep 13, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/climate_hysteria_a_mass_delusion_to_demonize_carbon_dioxide.html
Climate Emergency Not Supported by Data, Say Four Leading Italian Scientists
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2022
Change Climate Change Quickly
By Robert L. Hirsch. & Roger H. Bezdek, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/14/change_climate_change_quickly_853624.html
Media Can’t Agree on the Number of Climate Tipping Points, Much less When.
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Sep 13, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Like sailing to the edge of the earth?]
Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition
By Rupert Way, et al. Joule, Sep 13, 2022
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X#relatedArticles
[SEPP Comment: In a few years, solar, wind, and storage will cost nothing, jump in now?]
Climate change and state investments
Minnesota, like many corporations, would be foolish not to consider the risks.
By Editorial Board Star Tribune, Sep 12, 2022
https://www.startribune.com/climate-change-and-state-investments/600206246/
“There are no guarantees in the stock market, ever. But the growing realization that flouting climate change carries considerable risk is long overdue.”
[SEPP Comment: Pension accountants, forget your fiduciary responsibilities save the earth instead?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
World heading into ‘uncharted territory of destruction’, says climate report
Governments and businesses failing to change fast enough, says United in Science report, as weather gets increasingly extreme
By Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent, The Guardian, Sep 13, 2022
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/13/world-heading-into-uncharted-territory-of-destruction-says-climate-report
Link to report: United in Science: We are heading in the wrong direction
By Staff, UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Sep 13, 2022
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/united-science-we-are-heading-wrong-direction
https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/united_in_science
[SEPP Comment: The WMO confuses the surface of the earth with the atmosphere, why believe what a host of UN agencies say?]
Inflation Reduction Act Signals New Era for American Energy Industry
By Chris Romer, Real Clear Energy, Sept 12, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/12/inflation_reduction_act_signals_new_era_for_american_energy_industry_853013.html
[SEPP Comment: The author is unaware that methane is next on the energy hit list.]
Scientists getting tipsy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
Link to paper: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
By David I. Armstrong McKay, et al. AAAS Science, Sep 9, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
Renewables will save us a billion trillion pounds! Yeah, right
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 15, 2022
Switching to renewable energy could save trillions – study
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2022
Homewood: “This whole argument boils down to two questions:
“1) If renewable energy is really so cheap and wonderful, why do we need to subsidize and mandate it, while taxing and banning fossil fuels?
“2) If renewables are about to get much cheaper, the sensible thing would be to carry on with our existing energy infrastructure and wait until renewables are cheaper.”
Cost Of The Green Energy Transition: Who You Gonna Believe, Some Research Assistants From Oxford Or Your Lyin’ Eyes?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 16, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-9-16-cost-of-the-green-energy-transition-who-you-gonna-believe-me-or-your-lyin-eyes
The Climate Religion Endangers Us All
By Rick Whitbeck, Real Clear Energy, Sep 15, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/15/the_climate_religion_endangers_us_all_853752.html
Avoiding a Malthusian Future
By Richard Fulmer, Master Resource, Sep 13. 2022
China, not America, has the real emissions problem
So why do Democrats keep passing legislation that will do nothing for the climate?
By Rupert Darwall, Spectator World, Sep 13, 2022
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/on-climate-change-democrats-ideology-delusional/
Denying Access to Energy: The New Normal?
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/14/denying_access_to_energy_the_new_normal_853324.html
“grossly premature and probably wrong”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/grossly-premature-and-probably-wrong/
Energy and Environmental Review: September 12, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Sep 12, 2022
Change in US Administrations
Will Anyone Actually Like It if Biden Ends Fossil Fuels?
By Chris J. Krisinger, American Thinker, Sep 16, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/will_anyone_actually_like_it_if_biden_ends_fossil_fuels.html
Biden to celebrate climate, health and tax bill as ‘major win’ for middle-class families
Biden will also call out Republicans for their opposition to the legislation
By Landon Mion, FOX Business, Sep 13, 2022
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-celebrate-climate-heath-tax-bill-major-win-middle-class-families
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Net Benefit: Rising CO2 Improves Essential Crop Yields 3% Per Year – Critical to Feeding The World
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2022
Link to one study: Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and its interaction with temperature and nitrogen on yield of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.): a meta-analysis
By Mekides Woldegiorgis Gardi, et al, Plant and Soil, April 11, 2022
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11104-022-05386-5
Recent carbon dynamics in a Canadian boreal forest
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
From the CO2Science Archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China May Boost Coal Power Plant Building Amid Energy Crunch
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2022
“Two thirds of electricity demand growth is supplied by thermal (nearly all coal) power, which still generates 67% of total supply, against the 11% coming from wind/solar. China’s economic growth will continue to rely copious amounts of coal-fired power for decades to come.”
Seeking a Common Ground
California And New York: Do Not Back Off Your World-Beating Green Energy Schemes!
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 10, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-9-10-california-and-new-york-do-not-back-off-your-insane-green-energy-schemes
[SEPP Comment: Fail in your green dreams quickly, so others won’t follow!]
The Conversation: We Must Seek to Understand Why Bjørn Lomborg’s Climate Arguments Resonate
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 12, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Gasoline and food prices shock just a preview – see scary story abroad coming this way
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Sep 12, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/focus_on_gas_prices_just_part_of_the_story2/
Measurement Issues — Surface
There’s a new map of climate disasters in America
The US has it all: floods, fire, extreme heat, and drought
By Justine Calma, The Verge, Sep 12, 2022
https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/12/23348911/climate-disaster-us-map-flood-fire-heatwave-drought
Link to questionable map: Climate-related hazards in real-time
By Staff, NOAA, Accessed Sep 13, 2022
https://resilience.climate.gov/
[SEPP Comment: NOAA ignores extreme cold such as last winter’s Texas Norther?]
Rescued 66,000 Sheets Of Real UK Rainfall Observations Refute Alarmist Claims Of More Drought
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 13, 2022
Changing Weather
Wildfires are the “Old Normal” for the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 16, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html
PODIUM | Don’t blame climate for Colorado River’s woes
By Roy Johnston, Colorado Politics.com, Sep 7, 2022
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/opinion/podium-don-t-blame-climate-for-colorado-river-s-woes/article_753d79de-2e64-11ed-903f-b717729011bc.html
“Phoenix has grown 432% since 1970. Las Vegas is up 1,082% since 1970; Los Angeles is up 49%, or 4.1 million, and Denver has grown 174%.
“Bottom line: Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels are down because of population growth, primarily in the lower basin. Water demand has exceeded the normal replenishment rate in Lake Mead. River-flow rate into Lake Powell, adjusted for human off-take, is normal. The climate change Boogieman is not to blame.”
September 15, 1939, 105 Degrees In Ohio
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/september-15-1939-105-degrees-in-ohio/
Changing Seas
Are the North Atlantic Currents Strengthening or Weakening?
By Art Viterito, WUWT, Sep 11, 2022
Corals covered the Australian desert once – maybe they’ll grow back if we screw in the right light globes?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 12, 2022
Ancient Deepsea Shells Reveal 66 Million Years Of Carbon Dioxide Levels
Co-authored by two Texas A&M scientists, a new analysis using ancient marine organisms provides important past climate data and context to modern carbon emissions.
By Leslie Lee, Texas A&M University College of Geosciences, June 14, 2021
Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives
By James W.B. Rae, et al, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, May 2021
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026
[SEPP Comment: The relationship between CO2 and temperature is not well established.]
It’s Official: The South China Sea Has Not Warmed In The Last 40 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 15, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Everybody knows: the ice core record shows that CO2 controls the climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
Climate Change Weekly #446: No, Melting Greenland Ice Is Not About to Swamp Coastal Areas
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Change Weekly, Sep 8, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
A load of foreign fertilizer
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
Lowering Standards
Posturing and Piffle at the Academy of Science
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 14, 2022
Pay no attention to the failure everywhere else
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
Link to article: Zero-emissions electricity by 2035 is possible
A study from the David Suzuki Foundation and the University of Victoria shows Canada’s potential for affordable and reliable net-zero electricity.
By Tom Green and Stephen Thomas, Policy Options, July 12, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Canada has a huge hydropower potential, will that be used?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
And this time last year…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
China turns back to coal as record heatwave causes power shortages
By Laura He, CNN Business, Aug 23, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/23/economy/china-coal-reliance-heat-wave-intl-hnk/index.html
[SEPP Comment: Includes video on heat wave and drought, caused by CO2 just like the floods in Pakistan?]
Pakistan Floods Likely Made Worse By Warming–BBC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 16, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
50 million trapped in modern slavery due to pandemic, war, climate crisis, report finds
By Rhea Mogul, CNN, Sep 12, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/12/asia/modern-slavery-forced-marriage-climate-health-intl-hnk/index.html
Link to: Global Estimates of Modern Slavery: Forced Labour and Forced
By Staff, International Labour Organization, Walk Free, and UN Migration, Sep 2022
“Through the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the global
community has committed to ending modern slavery among children by 2025,
and universally by 2030.”
[SEPP Comment: More UN nonsense.]
Stephen Schneider and Global Cooling: An Exchange
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Sep 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The climate science community is now claiming that the 1970s global cooling scare is a myth.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
97% Want Green Levies To Be Scrapped
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A poll that asks the public are you willing to pay!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Frozen Planet II repeats Attenborough’s climate change scaremongering that began in 2015
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 12, 2022
Thwaites all folks
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
“For instance, ABC said, ‘Now, scientists are finding that the Thwaites glacier, also known as the ‘Doomsday glacier,’ is melting faster than previously thought as warm and dense deep water delivers heat to the present-day ice-shelf cavity and melts its ice shelves from below, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience on Monday.’ So it’s not hot greenhouse gas-filled air, it’s warm water from the deep ocean. But that sort of geological process takes centuries to unfold. So the notion that anything we are doing caused it recently, and anything we stop doing could make it stop, invites the Duke of Wellington’s retort that ‘If you believe that, you’ll believe anything’. Even that glaciers have fingernails.”
[SEPP Comment: Giving the glacier a catchy name makes the science more real?]
Climate Industrial Complex: Emails Out ‘Urgent’ Media Role in Climate Complex, ‘Climate Disinformation’ Hearings
By Staff, Government Accountability and Oversight, Accessed Sep 17, 2022
Climate Change makes People Angrier, so give them a solar panel to hug (it’ll help in 100 years)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2022
Link to study: Temperature impacts on hate speech online: evidence from 4 billion geolocated tweets from the USA
By Annika Stechemesser, MSc, et al, The Lancet, Sep 2022
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00173-5/fulltext
Orwell’s 1984, From Warning to How-To Guide
By Kevin Donnelly, Quadrant, Sep 15, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
The Worlds Biggest Stealth Propaganda Operation is conditioning your child through their phone
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 13, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
“Fueling” a Counter-Revolution in Europe: Can It Happen Here?
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Sep 13, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/13/fueling_a_counter-revolution_in_europe_can_it_happen_here_853096.html
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Senate Democrats set action on Kigali climate treaty
By Jeremy Dillon, E & E Daily, Sep 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Based on the Montreal Protocol which is based on laboratory experiments refuted by atmospheric observations.]
Economists, activists call for $100B climate fund in Germany
By Staff, AP, Sep 13, 2022
https://apnews.com/article/science-germany-wind-power-berlin-e1bf01676e623a509bd63016aa55a5f1
Questioning European Green
Bubble, meet pin
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 14, 2022
We just paid Belgium 50 times the going rate to keep London’s lights on – how did it come to this?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2022
Blackout News Friday: Germany, Europe Teeter On The Economic Brink As Energy Crisis Intensifies
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 16, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Globalism is the Ultimate Expression of White Supremacy
Green globalists are proclaiming a planetary crisis to camouflage an agenda of conquest dominated by white Westerners. Green imperialism is still imperialism.
By Edward Ring, American Greatness, Sep 12, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Super Photo.]
Texas Grid Reliability: Gone With the Wind (and solar)
By Bill Peacock, Master Resource, Sep 14, 2022
Non-Green Jobs
Germany’s Spiraling Green Energy Catastrophe: “6 Million Jobs At Risk”…”A National Emergency”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 10, 2022
The Political Games Continue
There’s No Celebrating the Inflation Reduction Act
By Nate Scherer, Real Clear Energy, Sep 16, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/16/theres_no_celebrating_the_inflation_reduction_act_854053.html
Progressives flex against Manchin side-deal on permitting reform
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 13, 2022
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
It Is Time EV Drivers Paid Their Share Of Tax
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 14, 2022
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Interior reinstates offshore oil leases after requirement in Democratic bill
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 14, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
The Global Fuel Market Will Remain Tight For Years To Come
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Sep 13, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Global-Fuel-Market-Will-Remain-Tight-For-Years-To-Come.html
NetZero takes a hit in the UK — Fracking is on and “could eclipse North Sea Gas”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 17, 2022
China Is Aggressively Buying Up Cheap Russian LNG
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Sep 08, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Aggressively-Buying-Up-Cheap-Russian-LNG.html
Energy Issues — US
Energy System Planning Is Best Done Without a Partisan Thumb on the Scale
By Todd Snitchler, Real Clear Energy, Sep 15, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/15/energy_system_planning_is_best_done_without_a_partisan_thumb_on_the_scale_853753.html
Washington, DC’s Energy Colonialism
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 13, 2022
“Led by Councilwoman Mary Cheh, DC’s City Council recently passed two laws banning fossil fuels for heating, cooking, and city-owned vehicles.”
“The ‘Climate Commitment Act’ forbids fossil fuel heat for new district-owned buildings, including schools, by 2025. It requires that all DC vehicles be ‘zero-emission’ by 2026; all District operations be ‘carbon-free’ by 2040; and the entire city be ‘carbon-neutral’ by 2045.”
Washington’s Control of Energy
America’s Broken Policies Put Our Energy and Environmental Futures at Risk
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/14/americas_broken_policies_put_our_energy_and_environmental_futures_at_risk_853323.html
“Please disregard the fact that our federal government keeps intentionally limiting U.S. energy production to essentially put the Gulf of Mexico out of the oil and gas business, even though it provides 15% of our oil supply.”
Get the Gas Flowing: FERC Needs to Stop Hiding Behind Fig Leaves
By Jonathan D. Brightbill, Real Clear Energy, Sept 12, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/12/get_the_gas_flowing_ferc_needs_to_stop_hiding_behind_fig_leaves_853011.html
Biden proposes strengthening offshore drilling safety regulations loosened by Trump
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 12, 2022
[SEPP Comment; Ignoring changes in offshore drilling since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Can’t You See – Big Changes Happening Below The Surface In U.S. Crude Export Markets
By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, Sep 11, 2022
https://rbnenergy.com/cant-you-see-big-changes-happening-below-the-surface-in-us-crude-export-markets
“For one thing, Corpus Christi is now by far the dominant point of export, with Houston, Louisiana, and Beaumont/Nederland trailing. Another is that Europe, heavily impacted by the sharp decline in imports from Russia, is now the leading destination for U.S. barrels. There are other changes, too, including increased use of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and terminal expansion projects.”
EIA forecasts record U.S. natural gas consumption in 2022
By Max Ober, et al. EIA, Sep 14, 2022
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53839&src=email
[SEPP Comment: Forty years ago, models predicted the US was about to run out.]
U.S. LNG export capacity to grow as three additional projects begin construction
By Victoria Zaretskaya, et al. EIA, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53719
Record U.S. LNG Exports To Europe May Not Last
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Sep 11, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Record-US-LNG-Exports-To-Europe-May-Not-Last.html
The Oil Market Isn’t Broken, It’s Just Responding To A Supply Surplus
By Alex Kimani, Oil Price.com, Sep 15, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Oil-Market-Isnt-Broken-Its-Just-Responding-To-A-Supply-Surplus.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
How the Fed will Strangle New Nukes
By Joseph Somsel, American Thinker, Sep 14, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/how_the_fed_will_strangle_new_nukes.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Column: Why spend a trillion if you don’t have to? Hydrogen the smart way
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Sep 13, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
EU Cuts Green Energy Subsidies for “Environmentally Destructive” Tree Burning
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 15, 2022
“I can’t help wondering if a €13-17 billion annual subsidy for chopping down trees and burning them was what the original founders of the environmental movement had in mind, when they first started having their green action group meetings.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Drivers warned EV charging will be 98% more difficult in 2031 than it is today
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2022
EV Running Costs Now Higher Than Petrol Cars
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 13, 2022
California Dreaming
Will California “learn” to avoid Peak Rolling Blackouts?
By Anonymous Planning Engineer, Climate Etc. Sep 12, 2022
“California has reached a balance skewed by false expectations that ‘green’ resources can not meet. Creating a balance that looks at the true costs and reliability impacts of green resources should benefit electric users in California.”
[SEPP Comment: Is it the policy of the California government to end affordable and reliable electricity?]
God of climate change might reside in California
By Charles W. Milliken, Monroe News, Michigan, Sep 9, 2022
https://www.monroenews.com/story/opinion/columns/2022/09/08/charles-milliken-god-of-climate-change-california/65475354007/
Health, Energy, and Climate
Air pollution can trigger lung cancer in nonsmokers: research
By Brad Dress, The Hill, Sep 12, 2022
Link to presentation: LBA1 – Mechanism of action and an actionable inflammatory axis for air pollution induced non-small cell lung cancer: Towards molecular cancer prevention
By Charles Swanton, Annals of Oncology, Sep 10, 2022
https://oncologypro.esmo.org/meeting-resources/esmo-congress/mechanism-of-action-and-an-actionable-inflammatory-axis-for-air-pollution-induced-non-small-cell-lung-cancer-towards-molecular-cancer-prevention
[SEPP Comment: Weak statistical association.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Snakes – a natural history
By HW Paker and AGC Grandison, Cornell University Press for British Museum (Natural History) 1977
The Birds Know that Fall is Here
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 14, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-birds-know-that-fall-is-here.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
“We Broke The Atmosphere”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/we-broke-the-atmosphere/
Link to: The Earth Is on Fire
It’s immoral to saddle today’s young people with an inheritance of environmental catastrophe
By Jordan Salama, Scientific American, Oct 5, 2020
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-earth-is-on-fire/
Eco Green China is sprayed from a bottle
Chinese environmental care means spraying grass, trees, rocks oil paint “green”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 17, 2022
Four More Inches Of Megadrought In New Mexico
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/four-more-inches-of-megadrought-in-new-mexico/
The World’s Largest Industry (Part 2)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/the-worlds-largest-industry-part-2/
Video
[SEPP Comment: UN IPCC part of a great Ponzi scheme? Far bigger than Bernie Madoff?]
ARTICLES
1. Biden Freezes Oil and Gas Leases
Calling Joe Manchin: Interior uses ‘sue and settle’ to suspend Trump-era approvals.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Sept. 13, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-freezes-oil-and-gas-leases-joe-manchin-west-virginia-climate-energy-chuck-schumer-11663093146?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial states
“Joe Manchin’s deal with Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer isn’t looking so good for the West Virginian, and the latest evidence is a Biden Administration settlement with green groups that stops previously approved oil and gas leases.
The Interior Department last week agreed to conduct additional climate reviews for five federal oil and gas lease sales held in 2019 and 2020 that were challenged by environmental groups. Activists claimed the Trump Administration didn’t sufficiently study the climate impact of the leases under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
Rather than defend the earlier environmental reviews, the Biden Administration surrendered to their progressive friends. According to last week’s legal settlement, the climate reviews will incorporate the “social cost” of greenhouse gas emissions that could result from the leases. This takes into account indirect global costs of emissions such as property damage from natural disasters, risk of conflict over resources, reduced agricultural productivity from drought, and more.
By including the social cost in the NEPA reviews, the Administration will be able to claim the leases have a significant negative environmental impact even when they don’t and then seek to cancel them. Alternatively, the Administration could try to force oil and gas producers to mitigate their emissions by helping fund its climate agenda.
While the settlement doesn’t outright cancel the leases, it will effectively freeze their development. Interior has agreed not to approve new drilling permits or rights-of-way on the leases until it completes the climate reviews. Even after those reviews are done and if Interior allows development, green groups will still be able to challenge the reviews and leases afresh in court.
In sum, oil and gas producers that bought leases years ago and have invested in developing them will be in limbo for months or years. The settlement also may render toothless a provision in the Manchin-Schumer bill that prohibits Interior from granting rights-of-way for solar and wind projects on federal land unless the government has offered oil-and-gas leases during the prior four months. Nor can it issue offshore wind leases unless an offshore oil-and-gas sale has been held in the past year.
While the Biden Administration may still hold oil and gas lease sales, they could be challenged in court. Then the Administration could agree to suspend them in a legal settlement, and go ahead with new solar or wind leases. Obama-era regulators often used such collusive settlements with greens to circumvent Congress. Biden officials are taking this “sue and settle” strategy to a new level by unwinding their predecessors’ approvals.”
The editorial concludes with stating that the Biden administration’s leases have been the least of any President since World War II.
**********************
2. China’s Coal Power Boom
Beijing is building more coal-fired capacity than the rest of the world combined, U.S. climate lectures notwithstanding.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Sept. 12, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coal-power-boom-beijing-xi-jinping-climate-energy-biden-administration-11650480857?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“An unspoken truth of the climate-change crusade is this: Anything the U.S. does to reduce emissions won’t matter much to global temperatures. U.S. cuts will be swamped by the increases in India, Africa and especially China. Look no further than China’s boom in new coal-fired electricity.
Under the nonbinding 2015 Paris climate agreement, China can increase its emissions until 2030. And is it ever. Between 2015 and 2021 China’s emissions increased by some 11%, according to the Climate Action Tracker, which evaluates nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement. The U.S. has reduced its emissions by some 6% between 2015 and 2021. Beijing made minimal new commitments at last year’s Glasgow confab on climate, despite world pressure.
S&P Global Commodity Insights recently estimated that China is planning or building coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of at least 100 gigawatts. Those are merely the projects whose development status is confirmed, so the real number is almost certainly higher. Total U.S. power capacity is some 1,147 gigawatts. One gigawatt is enough energy to power as many as 770,000 homes.
The nonprofit Global Energy Monitor tracks coal-fired power projects world-wide of 30 megawatts or more, including those planned for the long-term. It estimates that, as of July 2022, China had some 258 coal-fired power stations—or some 515 individual units—proposed, permitted or under construction. If completed they would generate some 290 gigawatts, more than 60% of the world’s total coal capacity under development.
Global Energy Monitor also reports that as of July China had 174 new coal mines or coal-mine expansions proposed, permitted or under construction that when complete would produce 596 million metric tonnes per year. China has also invested in hydro, wind and solar energy, which account for a growing share of its power generation. But energy demand continues to grow, and coal accounted for nearly 64% of China’s power generation in 2021, according to the energy think tank Ember.
Since China signed the Paris pact, its coal-fired power capacity has increased by some 185 gigawatts, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated earlier this summer. The U.S. has decreased its coal capacity by about 80 gigawatts since late 2015. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in January that U.S. operational coal capacity was 209.6 gigawatts.
Natural gas plants that emit less CO2 are replacing coal power in the U.S., which accounts for most of the decline in U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet the climate lobby and Biden Administration want to cut off financing for natural-gas production and make drilling and transport more difficult and expensive.
The reason for China’s coal boom is obvious: The Communist Party’s priority is economic growth, higher living standards, and becoming the world’s leading power. Carbon emissions are an afterthought, and promises of future reductions are the compliment Chinese vice pays to Western virtue signalers.
President Xi Jinping addressed carbon-neutrality goals in March, saying ‘we can’t be detached from reality. . . . We can’t toss away what’s feeding us now while what will feed us next is still not in our pocket,’ according to a South China Morning Post report that cited the state-run People’s Daily. But Biden officials don’t want to believe what they hear.” [Boldface added]
The editorial discusses some of the inept actions by US officials and concludes:
“While the Biden Administration does all it can to restrict U.S. fossil fuels, no matter the economic harm, Beijing is charging ahead with coal imports, coal mining and coal power to become the world’s leading economy. They must marvel at their good fortune in having rivals who are so self-destructive.” [Boldface added]
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