The US National Hurricane Center acts as WMORegional Center for Specialized Meteorology, based in Miami, Florida.
According to the Center for Climate Prediction forecasters, there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an “above-normal season” and also a 30% chance of a near-normal season. season below normal.
The hurricane season that covers the Atlantic region, including the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the east coast of the United States, runs from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA forecasts between 12 and 17 total named storms, meaning winds of at least 63 kilometers per hour, or 39 miles per hour.
There are 4 big storms
Of the possible storms, it forecast one to four “major storms” – three to five categories – with winds of at least 178kmh, or 111mph.
WMO says NOAA has “70% confidence in these ranges.
“The forecast will be less active than in recent years, as competing factors – some halting hurricane development and some boosting it – boost this year’s overall forecast for a nearer season. as usual, according to NOAA,” WMO reported in a report. liberate, release, free.
However, the agency reminded that it is necessary to only one Great storm makes landfall to reset years of growth and development.
Statistics presented ahead of the ongoing World Meteorological Congress show that small island developing states suffer disproportionately in terms of both economic impact and loss of life.
Request early warning
For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 caused extensive damage to the Caribbean island nation of Dominica. amazing 800 percent its gross domestic product.
From 1970 to 2021, tropical cyclones (the general term that includes hurricanes) were the leading cause of reported human and economic loss worldwide, WMO said. more than 2,000 disasters”.
However, the number of people who died from deadly storms fell from about 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 between 2010-2019. Economic losses reported for the period 2010-2019 were $573.2 billion.
‘The big killers’
“Tropical storms are the main killers and a single storm can reverse years of socioeconomic development. The death toll has dropped significantly thanks to improvements in forecasting, warning and disaster risk reduction. But we can do better,” said WMO Secretary General, Professor Petteri Taalas.
“The United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative seeks to ensure that everyone has access to life-threatening wind, storm surge and rainfall warnings over the next five years, especially in small island developing countries that are on the front lines of climate change,” he said.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the 2023 hurricane season.
Name that storm
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In total, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Ian and Fiona). Both 2020 and 2021 so active that the usual rotation list has been exhausted.
After three hurricane seasons accompanied by La Niña, there is a high probability of occurring El Nino develops this summer, maybe prevent Atlantic hurricane activity. The potential influence of El Niño on hurricane development could be offset by favorable local conditions in the tropics of the Atlantic basin.
New model increases preparation time
“With a changing climate, the data and expertise that NOAA provides emergency managers and partners to support decision making before, during, and after a hurricane has never been more important.” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said.
“So this year we are running a new storm forecasting model and expand the tropical storm outlook chart from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities more time to prepare for storms.”
