US Open 2024 picks, odds: Expert predictions, winning odds from the betting field at Pinehurst No. 2
With the US Open returning to the No. 2 spot for Pinehurst for the first time in a decade, the key question on everyone in the golf world is the same: Who do you pick to win a third national championship? 124 this? With an exceptional field featuring the world’s best professionals, the third major championship of 2024 will be an epic ride from the first round on Thursday until the presentation of the America’s Cup extended early Sunday evening.
There is a three-headed monster on the 2024 US Open field as Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy are currently level. Scheffler and Schauffele are the first two major champions of the year, while McIlroy continues to seek his first major title in a decade. There is no doubt that Scheffler is playing the best golf in the world today – having won five of his last eight starts – but Schauffele and McIlroy are clearly in the second tier compared to the rest.
Joining that trio near the top are Collin Morikawa, a two-time major champion looking for the return leg in his Grand Slam bid, and Bryson DeChambeau, who had a career-best performance at Masters (T6) and PGA Championship (2nd) are available this season. Defending champions Wyndham Clark, despite up-and-down play this year, are still fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking, and a return to form is possible even if they dominated a year ago .
There are plenty of golfers behind them who will certainly be in contention, including wunderkind Ludvig Åberg and Brooks Koepka, and it will be interesting to see if the likes of Max Homa, Sahith Theegala and Viktor Hovland can find enough matches to put pressure on the tournament or not. favourite. And then there’s the duo of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Woods hasn’t played a weekend at the US Open since 2019, and he’s only made one cut since 2013. Meanwhile, Mickelson has finished No. 2 or T2 six times at the US Open , most recently in 2013. US Open top 50 since 2018, missing three cuts in that span.
So what happens in Pinehurst this week? Let’s take a look at all the predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to predict who will win — and what will happen — in one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world. golf.
US Open 2024 experts’ picks and predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner: Scottie Scheffler (3-1): Who else? If every win to this point has made his season more historic, this one will make it the most historic yet. First golfer since Tiger Woods to win six championships in one year, including a Major. One of only four players to win six times in a season since 1983. Third player this century to win the Masters and US Open in the same year. His gifts are plentiful, but the two most underrated — his short game and course management — will be on display all week at Pinehurst as his season goes from Great and truly historic.
Sleeper – Will Zalatoris (80-1): Two top-six finishes in his last three US Opens, and Zalatoris is 80-1 to win the tournament? I know his recent golf hasn’t been great, but he’s got plenty of major championship history for us to lean on this week. I think 80-1 will look silly on Friday afternoon.
Top 10 Course – Rory McIlroy: He has five straight top 10s at the event and is averaging nearly 2.25 strokes on the PGA Tour field through 2024, according to Data Golf. That was a wild number — we usually only see four or five players a year above 2.0 — that Scheffler destroyed that year. Rory is excellent at golf, just not good enough to beat Scottie.
The star definitely won’t win — Viktor Hovland: It’s too contradictory for me right now. This might seem like a crazy choice after what he did at the PGA Championship, but the short game is still too tough and he was quite humble (for someone of his caliber) at the US Open .
Scottie Scheffler vs. Xander Schauffele vs. Rory McIlroy: Scheffler will win, McIlroy will crack the top 10, and Schauffele – as we’ve seen so many times in the past – will step back a bit after winning his first major. It’s hard to stay focused right after the first win and while I think the game will be okay in the long run, I don’t think this week will be quite as good as the other two weeks.
Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: Tiger will make the cut here; Phil doesn’t. This is where Woods can think his way around and use his extraordinary hands to create many pars. I don’t see Mickelson thriving at Pinehurst, and I certainly don’t believe Tiger will be competitive – it’s just that he could absolutely overtake in a way that he simply doesn’t have a chance of doing at the PGA Championship in Valhalla.
Unexpected prediction — The journey will not be as difficult as predicted: I think about This piece is by Garrett Morrison of Fried Eggs much. While I hope for the fastest, crispiest green imaginable, I’m not sure we’ll get that from the USGA. And that’s okay. I just don’t want people to think – after Wyndham Clark said Monday that the greens are close – that the USGA is going to take them over (or maybe even up to) the line like it has in the past.
Lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (E)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Hideki Matsuyama (50-1): Scheffler is more or less assumed at this point, so let’s add a little excitement to the subject. Matsuyama thrives in two areas that will be thoroughly tested at Pinehurst: approach and around the green. The former Masters champion ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green and is among the leaders in distance from 200-plus yards and avoiding bogeys. He has quelled any concerns about a lack of representation since the Masters with a top-10 finish last week at the Memorial and has had a solid run at the US Open with a runner-up finish in 2017 and a top-five finish this year. 2022.
Sleeper – Russell Henley (100-1): Six players can claim to rank in the top 20 for strokes gained on approach and strokes gained around the green over the past three months, and Henley is one of them. Among the most accurate drivers in the game, Henley will need to rely on Pinehurst’s fast and firm conditions and hope to make this par 70 a bit of a ballpark. For my money, he is the most underrated player in the game and has a pair of top 15s in the last three US Opens to show for it.
Top 10 Courses — Xander Schauffele: Return to the well with this. He enters the US Open with nine straight major tournament top 20s and that’s all he’s done in just this championship. In seven starts at the US Open, Schauffele has reached the top 10 six times with the worst result coming at The Country Club with a T14 result. The tee-to-green game wasn’t up to par for Jack, but that didn’t matter and he still found a way to finish in the top 10 like this week.
The star definitely won’t win — Wyndham Clark: “Star” may be a bit of an exaggeration, but he is the No. 4 tennis player in the world and the reigning US Open champion. Clark has been playing poorly over the past few months, missing out on the Masters, the PGA Championship and most recently last week at the Memorial. Combine the lack of form with some additional commitments off the golf course, and I can see the defending champion struggling again.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Xander Schauffele vs. Rory McIlroy: I will side with the Official World Golf Ranking on this issue and follow their orders. It feels like Scheffler’s deck at this point is for a top-3 finish, while Schauffele’s deck is for a top-10 finish. McIlroy is playing very good golf – don’t get me wrong – but there are some flaws in His iron play was something that neither Scheffler nor Schauffele had at this point.
Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: Going into the season, I thought this would be the best opportunity for Tiger to at least show us something because Pinehurst is a golf course that requires mental toughness as well as physical toughness. A flat piece that will play solid and agile, Pinehurst should stay in Tiger’s wheelhouse and allow him to watch over the weekend. Meanwhile, Mickelson performed poorly on LIV Golf and was a missed candidate.
Surprise prediction – No big winner for the first time: It may seem like an odd prediction, but the US Open is the first professional tournament for the last five champions. Since 1973-78, that streak hasn’t extended to six, and I don’t think this year will end that drought. Schauffele’s run through the PGA Championship clearly helps the cause, but there are some potential concerns here with Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Åberg and Sahith Theegala.
Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (E)
Who will win the US Open and which long shot will stun the golf world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected US Open rankingsall from a model that brings together 12 major golf tournaments, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
