U.S. and Chinese flags flutter near the Bund, before a U.S. trade mission meets with its Chinese counterpart for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.
Song Aly | Reuters
The tense relationship between the US and China over Taiwan will be the main risk for Asia next year, according to a political risk analyst.
DJ Peterson, president of research firm Longview Global Advisors, said Beijing considers any move by Washington towards Taiwan as negative or infringing on its interests.
“That’s a lot of the top risk, I think in Asia in 2022. If you look at the relationship between the US and China right now, it’s really a ‘Cold War 2’ kind of relationship. ‘,” he told CNBC’s “Asia Street Signs” on Tuesday.
Late last year, President Joe Biden signed into law a defense bill called the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2022. Peterson argues that has further eroded relations between the two countries.
“The act, the recently signed NDAA, has a number of provisions that Beijing doesn’t like, including these provisions for Taiwan. harshly,” he noted.
The Olympics will be a very interesting story. Should it be taken as a sign of another achievement and opportunity for China’s cooperation and partnership?
DJ Peterson
President, Global Advisor of Longview
Specifically for China, the law includes the Pacific Deterrence initiative, which sets aside $7.1 billion. It also includes a statement of Congressional support for Taiwan’s defense.
China claims Taiwan part of its own territory and has been pressuring the democratic island to accept its right to rule.
The biggest difficulty for Asian nations will be how they navigate the competing interests of both the US and China, Peterson said.
“The challenge for Taiwan and for countries in the region in 2022 is: How do countries balance … geopolitical interests, commercial interests, technology, and chain interests? supply with China, as well as with the United States?” he pointed out. Adding a cold war-style scenario “increases profits dramatically,” he said.
Peterson also stressed that China has “offended” many of its partners in Asia and that the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing in February will be important in assessing the country’s image. on the global arena.
“The Olympics will be a very interesting story,” he said. “Will it be seen as an indication of another Chinese achievement and partnership and cooperation opportunity? Or will it cast a harsher light on China and highlight risks and disappointments?” Future?”
In December, The United States announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics on human rights abuses. While US athletes will still participate, the Biden administration will not send any official representatives to the games.
China’s foreign ministry condemned the move, calling it “tragedy of the Olympic spirit,” and said Beijing would take necessary and resolute countermeasures.
