First, let’s get this out of the way: Every starting quarterback in the NFL is under pressure this season.
If you’re good enough to land a quarter-billion-dollar contract, you’ll be under a lot of pressure to live up to that money. If you’re not good enough, you’ll be under pressure to do everything you can to get into position for such a big contract.
If you’re a rookie drafted high, you have an increasingly short window of time to develop into a star before a team loses patience with its investment. It can be as little as two years. Consider the worthless, pointless first-rounders of 2021, who have now seen Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields And Mac Jones was traded to a second division team at a huge discount.
So narrowing the list from 32 starting quarterbacks to just eight names here is to highlight the iceberg above the water, to point out passers who have unique situations and are likely to struggle if 2024 doesn’t go their way. There’s no shortage of “overpaid not to win playoff games” quarterbacks, but these are the ones at the top.
first. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphin
Is he the next NFL quarterback to join the $50 million-a-year club? There are currently six in that elite group, none of them 30 years old, none of them with a Super Bowl win on their resume. Tagovailoa has yet to throw for 30 touchdowns in a season, playing in just one playoff game and losing by throwing for 199 yards. But he led the NFL in passing yards last year with 4,624, and he stayed healthy and played a full 17 games for the first time after appearing in no more than 13 games in any of his first three seasons.
There’s an opportunity in the AFC East, where Miami last won a title in 2008. Even more pressing for the franchise is that their last postseason win was eight years ago. With the Dolphins’ explosive offense and offseason defensive additions, can Tua help them get over the hump before hitting free agency? How many tens of millions of dollars will he lose if he plays poorly? He’s currently making $23 million on his fifth-year option, but he could easily double that amount annually given his current price tag of just $100 million. Good midfielder.
2. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Dallas has an impressive roster of elite players waiting for big contracts, with Prescott joining pass-catcher CeeDee Sheep and the person who rushed in Micah ParsonsAll three will likely get at least $30 million a year in new deals, and Prescott could double that as the league’s first player to make $60 million. Win or lose, the Cowboys will lead the league in personnel.
Prescott turns 31 next week, and he’s coming off an impressive season in which he led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finished second in MVP voting. He needs 4,725 yards to become the Cowboys’ all-time leading passer. He has 37 more touchdowns than Troy Aikman, with 67 fewer interceptions. But here’s the difference: Aikman went 11-5 in the playoffs with three Super Bowl wins; Prescott is 2-5 in the postseason in eight seasons as Dallas’ starting quarterback.
So how does 2024 play out? Assuming the two sides don’t reach an agreement before the season, do the Cowboys win the Super Bowl and re-sign Prescott to a huge deal? Do they fail in January and let Prescott go, effectively hitting the reset button on multiple levels? Prescott could be the prize of free agency in 2025 regardless. But leading the NFL’s most popular team before signing the richest contract of his career is his biggest challenge yet, even if he’s all too familiar with the pressure that comes with the job.
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There’s a lot of pressure on the No. 1 draft pick, and Young felt the weight of it last year. After going 23-4 as a starter at AlabamaHe went 2-14 on a terrible Panthers team that finished with the worst record in the NFL. What’s more, the high price they paid to trade for Young meant they didn’t have the No. 1 pick that usually comes with it, making their rebuild that much more difficult.
New general manager Dan Morgan and new coach Dave Canales have been aggressive this offseason in upgrading the supporting cast around Young. The Panthers spent $153 million on two starting quarterbacks, traded for receiver Diontae Johnson and use their top three draft picks on skill players, starting with receiver Xavier Legette.
How much better will Young be in Year 2? He had 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions as a rookie, and Vegas’s over-under on TD passes this fall is a modest 18.5. He’d do well to surpass that number and take Carolina somewhere, even if it’s just five or six wins and more relevance. If he doesn’t, though, the Panthers will have a high draft pick next spring and the temptation to reset with another quarterback.
4. Kirk Cousins, eagle
Cousins is under different pressure than any other QB on this list. He received the biggest contract in NFL free agency, getting $180 million from Atlanta (including $100 million guaranteed) to leave Vikingsonly to see the Falcons use the No. 8 pick in the 2024 draft on the Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
The organization and new coach Raheem Morris have made it clear that this is Cousins’ team, and Penix is the future. But if Cousins doesn’t start with personal and team success, the future could come sooner than he thinks. He’s recovering from an Achilles tendon injury, and while he’s expected to be back at full strength by the start of the season, any absence will bring Penix into the fold, with the threat of him playing well enough to earn a starting spot.
The bookmakers have the Falcons as the favorites to win the NFC South, even though the Bucs have won three straight and have their core roster back. Cousins could be the answer for Atlanta, taking over a team that has struggled to find a quarterback and a leader over the past two seasons. But if not — and quickly — Penix, 24, will be eager to prove he is the answer.
5. Daniel Jones, Giant
After uncertainty throughout the spring, the Giants did not select a quarterback at No. 6 in the draft, choosing University of Louisiana receiver Malik Nabers instead. That gives Jones a better chance of keeping his job in the second season of his four-year, $160 million contract. He’s recovering from an ACL injury, but his only competition is the new Drew Lockwho had 28 touchdowns against 23 interceptions in four NFL seasons.
Is the Giants’ 2022 playoff appearance just a fluke? Jones hasn’t thrown for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since his rookie year, and he’s in a league with two playoff hopefuls in the Cowboys and Eagleplus one Washington The team is trying to regain its form under a new coach and midfielder.
If Jones returns healthy, his margin of error will be small — his 2025 salary is guaranteed only if he stays injury-free, so the Giants could move on after this year with just $22 million in dead money against the cap. A disappointing season could mean the end of Jones and Brian Daboll, and another franchise rebuild in 2025.
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6. Russell Wilson, Steelers Team
Wilson is 35 years old and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2019, and his two years in Denver were bad enough that Wild Horse is paying him $39 million not to play for them this season. He landed in Pittsburgh, still a bargain on a league-minimum contract, joining a team that has won despite getting very little from its quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
But Wilson isn’t the only low-cost experiment in town, as Pittsburgh has acquired Justin Fields from Bear for a low-round draft pick in 2025. If Wilson isn’t the immediate answer there—if he looks like he will in 2022, for example—the Steelers could turn to Fields, who is just 25 and two years removed from a 1,000-yard rushing season. The lesser of the two may not have another clear shot at becoming an NFL starter, so there’s an urgency at quarterback that many playoff-caliber teams don’t see in 2024.
7. Josh Allen, Bill
Allen finished in the top five in MVP voting three times in four years and the Bills won four straight AFC East titles. But the talent departures raise questions about whether their Super Bowl window is closing. Stefon Diggs has been traded with Houston And Gabe Davis remaining in free agency to Jacksonvillelet Allen throw to the rookie Keon Coleman and newcomers Curtis SamuelMeanwhile, Buffalo’s defense also lost some of its biggest names.
Allen has a big contract and has lived up to the high expectations that come with it, but elite quarterbacks are often judged by their postseason success. Allen has won at least one playoff game in four straight years, but the Bills haven’t made it back to the conference championship round since 2020. Will his legacy ultimately be that of a guy who was unlucky enough to play in the AFC at the same time as Patrick Mahomes?
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Second acts after an iconic run with a franchise don’t always go well. We saw Tom Brady win the Super Bowl with BucsBut we’ve also seen Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and other legends end their careers in other uniforms without much success. Rodgers’ 2023 season has lasted just four snaps, and he’s coming back from a major injury at age 40, still carrying great hopes of being a four-time NFL MVP.
You could argue that no team has had the explosiveness or the intensity of the Jets. If he’s healthy and everything comes together, anything is possible, but if he’s not healthy and it doesn’t happen, could this be the end? He’s a first-round Hall of Famer, but there are still big questions about how his final chapter will play out in New York.
Greg Auman is a reporter for FOX Sports’ NFC South, covering Pirates, eagle, Black Panther And St. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, after stints at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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