Trends and Tips for Picking a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winner

One of many Breeders’ Cup races that draws essentially the most consideration annually – from devoted lifelong racing aficionados to the informal fan — is the Juvenile. Virtually everybody who has even a passing curiosity in sports activities has heard of the Kentucky Derby, and the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance is the primary main platform for subsequent 12 months’s Triple Crown hopefuls.

Not solely does the race supply a glimpse of what’s to return on the subsequent 12 months’s Derby path, the race sometimes determines the Eclipse Award for champion 2-year-old male.

Whereas the winner of the Juvenile has not persistently carried that elite type into his 3-year-old season, final 12 months’s race was a springboard to stardom for a deep contingent that features Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Jackie’s Warrior and Rombauer. And the 5 editions from 2015 to 2019 produced racehorses like Nyquist, Brody’s Trigger, Exaggerator, Rated R Famous person, Traditional Empire, Sensible Joke, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, U S Navy Flag, Recreation Winner, Mr. Cash, Mind Control, Complexity, and Nicely Outlined, who went on to graded stakes success in subsequent years.

This yearly characteristic appears again at previous editions of the race to see what the final 20 editions of the Juvenile inform us about the primary attributes of a typical winner. We’ll then apply that data to evaluate the 2021 TVG Juvenile Offered by TAA at Del Mar on Nov. 5.

The very first thing that jumps out to me is that this a race that regularly produces upsets with 14 of the final 20 winners paying not less than $10 on a $2 wager and eight of the 20 producing winners at double-digit odds. So, that looks as if the best place to begin.

In search of Longshots

Favorites can and do win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however six instances within the final 20 years the winner has rewarded backers with a win payout of $29.80 or extra for a $2 win wager. As helpful as that may be – an upset win can single-handedly give a bettor a worthwhile weekend – think about how a lot even the ten winners that paid $15 or extra throughout this span boosted the worth of multi-race tickets for gamblers who included them. Let’s discover the percentages of the Juvenile winners and take a better take a look at the upset winners.

• Solely 4 favorites have received the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile within the final 20 years: Conflict Move (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Recreation Winner (2018).
• Whereas there have additionally been six winners between 7-2 and 5-1, that leaves fairly just a few longshot winners, together with eight who crossed the end line first at 10.50-1 or greater.
• That has helped enhance the typical odds of the Juvenile winner to 11.4-1 with a median of 5.9-1. Even utilizing the median, a $13.80 winner might be the important thing to a terrific rating in vertical or horizontal bets.
• Of the eight double-digit odds winners, 4 had been greater than 25-1 odds: Motion This Day, 26.80-1 in 2003; Wilko, 28.30-1 in 2004; Vale of York, 30.60-1 in 2009; and Storm the Court docket, 45.90-1 in 2019.
• Let’s take a better take a look at the double-digit winners, however we’ll begin by eliminating from the equation Vale of York, who shipped in from Italy and posted a surprising upset on an artificial major observe.
• The entire different seven double-digit longshots (not counting Vale of York) completed within the high three of their remaining prep race, however solely two received and each of these winners got here out of a maiden particular weight race rating.
• 4 of the seven ran third and had been overwhelmed by open lengths, with three operating third in Grade 1 races and Wilko popping out of a Group 2 race in Europe. So, it is likely to be price trying nearer on the horses who rounded out the exacta/trifecta in key prep races understanding 2-year-olds can enhance dramatically presently of 12 months.
• Storm the Court docket inherited an uncontested tempo after 9-10 favourite Dennis’ Second stumbled badly at the beginning in 2019, however the different six longshot winners profiled as stalkers or closers and 4 of them had been eighth or worse after the primary quarter-mile and half-mile. (Notice: Storm the Court docket additionally profiled as a stalker getting into the race.)
• These seven double-digit longshot winners (not counting Vale of York) had been on common greater than 6 ¾ lengths again after a half-mile, however that dramatically modified by early stretch as on common the seven had been a few head in entrance, which to me signifies an explosive flip of foot amongst this group.
• Six of the seven had just one win to their credit score getting into the Juvenile. Wilko had two wins from 10 begins, however the different six longshots we’re averaged just below three begins (2.83) with a median of three races.
• Six of the seven had posted an Equibase Velocity Determine of not less than 106 with a mean of 107.1 and a median of 108.5.
• My major takeaway from the seven double-digit longshots (not counting Vale of York) is to search for frivolously raced prospects who’ve both been aggressive in opposition to elite stakes competitors or are coming off a maiden win. It additionally helps if they’ve proven the power to charge off the tempo and make a sustained late run.

Let’s Focus on the Favorites

The Juvenile has produced fairly just a few upsets in latest 12 months, however what stands out when taking a better take a look at the profitable favorites? Over the past 20 years, they’ve positively match a selected profile.

• The 4 profitable favorites talked about above – Conflict Move (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Recreation Winner (2018) – mixed for 12 begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and received all of them.
• All 4 capped unbeaten, Eclipse Award-winning campaigns within the Juvenile.
• All 4 got here out of Grade 1 wins and three got here out of a victory within the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
• The one one of many 4 who didn’t lead from begin to end was Recreation Winner, who profiled as a stalker getting into the 2018 Juvenile. He raced 4 lengths again in sixth after a half-mile and was inside a head of the lead in early stretch.
• Three of the 4 received by 2 ¼ lengths or extra; solely Shanghai Bobby, who received by a head in 2012, was critically challenged within the stretch.
• Solely one of many 4 had earlier expertise in two-turn races.
• The six winners within the 7-2 to 5-1 vary all had completely different operating kinds, however all six had a graded stakes win to his credit score. 5 of the six entered the Juvenile off a graded stakes win – Vindication (2002), Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Nyquist (2015), Traditional Empire (2016), Important High quality (2020) – with the opposite, Midshipman in 2008, coming off a runner-up end by lower than a size in a Grade 1.
• Just like the 4 profitable favorites over the past 20 years, Vindication, Nyquist, and Important High quality all capped unbeaten 2-year-old seasons with Juvenile wins.
• The six winners within the 7-2 to 5-1 vary had received 16 of their 20 lifetime begins getting into the Juvenile. 4 of the six had a career-best 109 Equibase Velocity Determine or higher and 5 of them had expertise in two-turn races.

Different Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Tidbits

We coated fairly a bit of data within the segments above so far as how they pertained to longshot winners or favorites, so relatively than revisiting the entire similar factors because it pertains to the 20 Juvenile winners on the entire, let’s concentrate on some key total takeaways from this pattern of races.

• Eight of the 20 winners got here out of a remaining prep race in California and 4 got here out of the Champagne Stakes.
• All 20 winners had been third or higher of their remaining prep race.
• Eighteen of the 20 received or had been inside three lengths of the winner of their remaining prep race with solely Texas Purple (third by 4 ¾ lengths behind American Pharoah within the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes) and Storm the Court docket (third by 8 ¼ lengths within the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes) serving as exceptions.
• Solely two winners weren’t stakes winners or graded stakes-placed getting into the race they usually each entered off maiden particular wight wins.
• 9 of the 20 winners had already received a Grade 1 race.
• Working fashion isn’t particularly essential as stalkers-closers have received nearly all of the 20 races however six winners profiled as tempo/press-the-pace varieties.
• In 2017, which was the lone earlier Breeders’ Cup held at Del Mar, the winner (Good Magic) shipped in from New York off a runner-up end within the Champagne Stakes. The second- and third-place finishers had been the runner-up (Solomini) and winner (Bolt d’Oro) from the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
• Good Magic was fourth, three lengths again, after a gap half-mile in :46.75 within the 2017 version at Del Mar and had opened a one-length lead in early stretch.
• That is extra of a enjoyable reality, however 19 of the 20 had been bred in Kentucky with Irish-bred Vale of York the lone exception in 2009.

Evaluating the 2021 Juvenile Contenders

Final 12 months, all 4 of the horses recognized as most certainly winners (2) and reside longshots (2) for the Juvenile had been amongst high 5 finishers with Important High quality profitable and Keepmeinmind rounding out the highest three at 30.90.1. The one runner among the many high 5 not in that group was 94.40-longshot runner-up Scorching Rod Charlie.

For the 2021 Juvenile, I feel it’s important to begin with Champagne Stakes winner Jack Christopher and American Pharoah Stakes winner Corniche. The previous is 2-for-2 for three-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown, who received this race in 2017 with Good Magic, and the latter totes the identical report for Corridor of famer Bob Baffert, who’s in search of his fifth win within the Juvenile.

Jack Christopher can be the fifth Champagne winner within the final 15 years to win the Juvenile ought to he prevail. He’s confirmed on the Grade 1 stage coming off a win and he’s an undefeated runner who in all probability would be the favourite. His 100 Equibase Velocity Determine and 102 Beyer Velocity Determine for the Champagne win cement his credentials as a win candidate, though you could possibly make a case that he may need distance limitations and has but to race round two turns.

Like Jack Christopher, Corniche might cap an unbeaten season within the Juvenile, one thing that has occurred in 9 of the final 20 editions. He enters off a 3 ¼-length runaway win within the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita, a race that has produced the Juvenile winner 4 instances within the final seven years. Corniche has been dominant in his two begins, is confirmed on the Grade 1 stage and on the 1 1/16-mile distance, and pacesetters have received 4 of the final 20 editions of the Juvenile. The High quality Highway colt is a really actual menace to provide Baffert his fifth win within the race.

Like Corniche, Pinehurst in an unbeaten Grade 1 winner skilled by Baffert. He has not raced since profitable the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity Sept. 6 in his second profession begin and has by no means raced past seven-eighths of a mile. He’s 2-for-2 on the primary observe at Del Mar. It is going to be fascinating to see if all-time main Breeders’ Cup jockey Mike Smith opts for Corniche or Pinehurst, however I might lean towards Corniche.

For these searching for an interesting longshot consistent with a few of the figuring out traits mapped out above, I see positives in Oviatt Class, Commandperformance, and Large Recreation.

Oviatt Class is a deep nearer skilled by Keith Desormeaux, who received the Juvenile in 2014 with one other runner with that profile, Texas Purple. He didn’t get a lot in the best way of tempo to arrange his ending velocity within the American Pharoah when closing from greater than 11 lengths again to complete third. On condition that Jack Christopher, Corniche, and Pinehurst all boast early velocity, Oviatt Class might get a perfect setup on the observe the place he ran his finest race when profitable at one mile and incomes a 91 Equibase Velocity Determine.

Commandperformance, like 2017 Juvenile winner Good Magic, is winless in two begins earlier than the Juvenile and comes off a runner-up end within the Champagne Stakes. He additionally didn’t get a perfect setup from a tempo perspective within the one-turn mile race however ran the quickest remaining quarter-mile and eighth of a mile in that race and will take a step ahead at a giant worth for coach Todd Pletcher, who has received the Juvenile twice.

Large Recreation is the one I feel might actually mild up the toteboard Nov. 5 at Del Mar. He improved considerably when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles Oct. 9 at Keeneland and confirmed extra tactical velocity in contrast together with his debut third-place end. He received by three lengths in a race that was simply so-so from a velocity determine perspective, however this half-brother to a number of graded stakes winner Isotherm might take a step ahead for Dale Romans. Two horses coming off maiden wins within the final 20 years orchestrated upsets within the Juvenile: Motion This Day (26.80-1 odds in 2003) and New 12 months’s Day (10.50-1 odds in 2013).

I actually respect Jack Christopher, but it surely’s robust to look previous Corniche on high and once I’m placing collectively unique tickets, I’ll be liberally utilizing each Oviatt Class and Large Recreation.