France is heading to Sunday’s vote for the first round of snap legislative election that President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly called this month, a gamble that has push the country into deep instability about its future.
Voters are electing their 577 representatives in the National Assembly, the country’s most prestigious and lower-level legislature, which will decide the future of Mr. Macron’s second term.
A new majority of lawmakers opposed to Mr. Macron would force him to appoint a political rival as prime minister, radically changing France’s domestic policy and upending its foreign policy. If no clear majority emerges, the country could face months of chaos or political deadlock. Mr. Macron, who has ruled out the possibility of resigning, unable to call new legislative elections one more year
French nationalist, anti-immigrant National protest The party is widely expected to dominate the race. A broad coalition of left-wing parties could come in second. Mr. Macron’s centrist Renaissance Party and its allies are expected to lose many seats.
Most polls will close at 6pm local time on Sunday or as late as 8pm in larger cities. Nationwide voting forecasts provided by polling institutes, based on preliminary results, are expected shortly after 8 p.m. and are generally reliable. Official results, Ministry of Home Affairs announcedwill come at night.
Here’s what you can expect.
The voting takes place in two rounds and turnout is expected to be high.
France’s 577 constituencies — one for each seat — include the mainland, overseas provinces and territories, and French citizens living abroad. In each region, the seat is awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes.
As many contestants as desired can compete in round 1 in each district, but there are specific thresholds to qualify for round 2, which will be held a week later, on July 7.
In most cases, the second round will have the top two vote-getters, and the person with the most votes in that round wins. But there are exceptions.
The candidate who receives more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round wins outright, as long as those votes represent at least a quarter of the registered voters in that district. And runoffs in some districts could have three or even four candidates if they can get votes equal to at least 12.5% of registered voters.
Both scenarios have been rare in recent years, but they are more likely if voter abstention is low, as is expected on Sunday. Most voting house Turnout is expected to exceed 60 percent in the first round, compared with 47.5 percent in 2022.
France’s legislative elections typically come just weeks after the presidential race and tend to favor whichever party wins the presidency, making the election less likely to appeal to voters who believe the outcome is predetermined.
But the stakes are much higher this time.
A rising far right, a strong left-wing coalition and a shrinking centre are on display.
The goal for each party and its allies is to win enough seats to form a majority. If no party does, France could face months of chaos or political deadlock.
But if control of the National Assembly shifts to Mr. Macron’s opposition, he will be forced to appoint a prime minister and cabinet from another political party, which will then control domestic policy. Traditionally, the president remains in control of foreign and defense policy matters in such situations, but the Constitution does not always provide clear guidance.
National Rally has a comfortable lead in the latest pollwith the support of about 36% of voters. After decades on the margins, the anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic far right has has never been closer to ruling France, which would be an astonishing development in a country that has been at the heart of the European project. A National Rally prime minister could clash with Macron over issues such as France’s contribution to the European Union budget or support for Ukraine within the country. war against russia.
The coalition of the Socialists, Greens, Communists and the far-left France Unbowed is in second place, with around 29% of the vote, and believes it has a chance of overtaking the far-right and forming its own government. The coalition wants to reverse some of the steps taken by Mr Macron’s government over the past seven years, such as raising the legal retirement age. It also wants to scrap corporate tax cuts and tax cuts for the wealthy in order to significantly increase social spending and pass a big increase in the minimum wage.
For Mr. Macron’s centrist party and its allies, the election is an uphill battle. Polls placed them in third place, with around 20%, and it was widely predicted that they would lose many of the 250 seats they held. Several of Mr. Macron’s political allies are running – leaders of other centrist parties, some of his own ministers and even the prime minister – and defeat for any of them would be a strong blow.
The first round results may give an imperfect sense of the direction of the vote.
In 2022, the centrist alliance of Mr. Macron and the left has neck and neck in first round vote, ahead of all other parties, with about a quarter of the vote for each party. A week later, both are still ahead of their competitors — yet Macron’s coalition won nearly 250 seatsand the left is guaranteed to be less than 150.
In other words, while the first round of voting can predict the final outcome, it is not a perfect predictor.
One way to analyze the first round is to look at national voting trends: What percentage of the national vote does each party receive? This is a good way to see whether polling accurately predicts each party’s overall support and to see which forces have momentum heading into the final week of the campaign.
But the nationwide vote share obscures the fact that legislative elections in France are essentially 577 separate races, with each seat only decided in a second round.
Each party’s prospects depend on how many candidates they have in the by-election — the more votes a candidate gets, the better their party’s chances of winning on July 7. The confrontations they will face will also become clearer.
And a lot happens between the two rounds. Voters whose favored candidates don’t make it to the second round either switch to another candidate or stay home.
Parties will make local or national voting recommendations to try to influence the outcome. In the past, different parties have often urged their members to vote strategically against the far right, But that strategy was broken.
Candidates may decide to withdraw from three- or four-way races if they are concerned about vote splitting; Some left-wing parties have has been announced that they would encourage their candidates to do so.
There will also be a new week of campaigning — enough time for mistakes, missteps or changes that could change the course of any race.
