The uncertainty of the Nord Stream pipeline exposes Germany and Europe to discontent and recession | World News

There is a stressful day ahead for everyone in Germany. Europe’s richest country is counting down the hours until it is discovered whether Vladimir Putin will shut off gas supplies.

Over the past week and a half, the Nord Stream pipeline, which brings natural gas from Russia to Germany, has Closed for annual maintenance.

It only runs at 40% capacity anyway, which the operator, Gazprom, has blamed on faulty turbines.

In theory, that’s currently in the process of being fixed. After a protracted diplomatic dispute over whether pragmatism will weather the sanctions, replacement turbines are being shipped to Russia from Canada, despite objections from the Ukrainian government.

But is maintenance really the issue here?

In effect, this is about whether Russia continues to sell energy to Europe at the same time that Europe is backing Ukraine’s war effort.

And seen through that lens, pragmatism works both ways.

The Russian President is well aware that if he decides to stop supplying natural gas to Europe, he could cause a lot of pain.

And so, like a nervous homeowner, cautiously turning on his faucet to see if a plumber can actually fix the leak, Europe will wait and see what happens.

Will Nord Stream work again or will the Russians decide to turn it off, weaponizing energy?

Turning off the gas faucet will inevitably raise prices in Germany and beyond, causing economic damage and worsening the finances of already tight households.

Furthermore, Germany, where gas stations are located less than two-thirds fullwill quickly find themselves having to choose between distributing supplies to industry, to households or simply to everyone.

At one end of the scale, that means a limit on air conditioning; on the other hand, factories were forced to close.

Unsurprisingly, Germany’s powerful and influential industrial sector is pressuring politicians to withdraw rules that favor private citizens at times of low energy.

The specter of that social and industrial chaos seemed appealing to many in the Kremlin.

Yet again, selling fossil fuels, including natural gas, is how Russia makes a lot of money. Even if Europe is quickly trying to find new supplies, the current supply cuts could only hurt the Russian economy as it will hurt Europe.

The truth is that no one seems to know what will happen. The German government looks worried; Neighboring Austria, which is even more dependent on Russia for gas supplies, appears to have been much more relaxed.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has given a particularly optimistic assessment of the prospect of Nord Stream being turned on again.

Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said: “We don’t expect that to come back.

“We are working on the assumption that it doesn’t work again and in that case certain additional measures need to be taken.”

It is a suggestion of the Commission’s proposed package of energy consumption reductions – heating and cooling limits and perhaps interventions in the commercial energy market.

However, just as the EU says it, so a good diplomat, from a major EU country, told me he was expecting Nord Stream to be turned on again, but at even low capacity. more than present.

“Putin needs a break-even point between easing Europe’s pain by driving gas prices higher, but also getting the money Russia needs to stay afloat,” he told me.

Read more:
Russia weaponizes gas supplies to ‘sow chaos’
Germans warn to prepare for possible gas shortage

And of course, this isn’t just about Nord Stream. There are other pipelines that bring gas from Russia into Europe.

Among them, I learned that diplomats were particularly concerned about the continuity of supplies from the Druzhba pipeline, the world’s longest pipeline, which also supplies Germany, as well as Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. , Austria and the Czech Republic.

“It’s a question of how much pain Putin wants to inflict on us, compared to how much pain he’s prepared to take,” said one diplomat.

Faced with all this uncertainty, Germany, and much of the rest of Europe, is urgently looking for other ways to supply energy.

In Germany, which is in the final stages of shutting down the last of its nuclear power plants, options are so limited that it is certain that this rich, connoisseur will return to coal to cover its needs. your demand.

But even that may not be enough to prevent energy shortages that could push Europe into discontent and recession.