Bill Ponton
In this article, I will quantify the cost to UK electricity customers of doubling wind power. This cost will be added to what the customer is currently paying. Think of it as a premium paid for virtue signaling.
Let’s start by taking a close look at the current state of electricity production in the UK. By 2022, the UK gets: 24% of its electric power from wind generation, 43% from gas turbine production and 33% from other sources such as coal, nuclear, hydro and biomass. Table 1 details the exact amount in MWH for each power generation source. The data used to derive these quantities was downloaded from GridWatch with generation capacity in MW from each source observed over a 2.5-minute period. [1]. Figure 1 is a stacked chart of wind, gas turbines, and other power generation sources. The diagram is instructive in that it shows wind generation whose magnitude varies over time, and how gas turbine generation is maneuvered to compensate for those fluctuations.
Table 1:
Figure 1:
The UK currently has 28 GW of wind capacity, 14 GW onshore and 14 GW offshore, with the potential to generate 245,280 GWH per year. [2]. It actually generated 61,631 GWH of wind energy by 2022, or about 25% of total wind capacity.
To understand the impact of doubling wind power capacity on wind energy production, one needs to double the value of wind power generation at each observation point in the GridWatch 2022 dataset. It leads to a total wind output of 123,311 GWH per year. In addition, the gas turbine generation capacity needs to be reduced at each interval by the amount required to keep the total wind turbine and new gas turbine generating capacity equal to the original sum. However, at intervals where the wind energy doubles in excess of the initial sum, the wind power should be limited to the value of the original sum. In addition, gas turbine generating capacity must not fall below 2,000 MW at any time. (This is also the case with real data where gas turbine generating capacity falls below 2,000 MW only 0.25% of the time) These limitations result in a cut in wind power output of 31,438 GWH ( or 25.5% of the total wind energy generated ) and the useful wind energy production is 91,873 GWH (or 35% of the total energy supplied to the grid) as detailed in Table 2. Figure 2 is annual data stack chart under wind power doubling scenario.
you 2
Figure 2
It is important to understand that doubling wind power output does not reduce the generating capacity of the gas turbine. Legacy gas turbine capacity must be immediately available to accelerate and fill gaps in wind power. As a result, the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs of gas turbine generators do not decrease. However, a reduction in gas turbine power generation capacity of 30,217 GWH per year resulted in a savings of 194,327,778 MMbtu of thermal energy or $971,638,889 in fuel cost savings per year as detailed in Table 3, assuming the level the average 20 years ago was 5 USD/MMbtu [3].
table number 3
The capital cost of wind power plant construction, excluding financing costs, is $6,041/kW for offshore and $1,718/kw for onshore. [4]. Adding 14 GW offshore and 14 GW onshore would have a capital cost of $84,574,000,000 and $24,052,000,000, respectively. The additional wind power O&M cost is $115 USD/kW-y for offshore and $27 USD/kW-y for onshore [4]. Adding 14 GW offshore and 14 GW onshore would have O&M costs of $1,610,000,000/year and $378,000,000/year, respectively, as shown in Table 4.
Table 4
Assume the after-tax WACC is 4.4% [5], financing a capital investment over a 20-year project life will cost UK electricity customers $8,260,542,875 per year. Wind power O&M costs minus CCGT fuel economy add up to $1,016,361,111 per year for a total of $9,276,903,985 per year. The total cost over the life of the project is $185,538,079,707 (or NPV of $121,991,131,529). With around 28,000,000 electricity customers in the UK, the additional cost to double wind capacity is $6,626 (or NPV of $4,357) per customer.
Changing the UK’s wind generation/CCGT ratio from 24%/43% to 35%/31% by doubling wind power capacity at a cost of $185 billion is sure to disappoint those in need. true believer in the advantages of wind power. Furthermore, the cost of this plan is lower than the cost of a plan that includes battery storage as a way to increase the contribution from wind power generation.
Presenter:
first. http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/download.php
2. https://www.thewindpower.net/statistics_countries_en.php
3. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
4. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/table_8.2.pdf
5. https://www.iea.org/articles/the-cost-of-capital-in-clean-energy-transitions
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