By Paul Homewood
It was a summer of record-breaking hype, if not little.
We’ve been hearing for weeks how this summer is unprecedented, how it “proves” global warming, and how it is a template for the future.
Turns out it wasn’t these after all, and in fact no hotter than 1976:
The actual average temperature is lower than in 2003, 2006 and 2018:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
Statistically, this summer is associated with 1976. ( Met Office previously stated that “Normally, we would only quote statistics accurate to 0.1C because differences smaller than this can be the result of small numerical differences arising from statistical calculations.) This summer ended at 15.72C, while in 1976 it was 15.70C
Summers like 1899, 1911, 1933, 1947 and 1983 were only a fraction of a degree cooler.
More notably, daytime temperatures this summer are significantly lower than in 1976. Daytime temperatures, of course, dominate heatwave stories.
In contrast, nighttime temperatures were artificially raised due to the UHI effect, which was not taken into account by the Met Office.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
Of course, there are also plenty of exaggerated claims about the drought, again with the aim of convincing the public that it is caused by climate change.
But as we can see below, there have been four drier summers in England and Wales – 1995 was the driest, followed by 1976, 1869 and 1983:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
We always have hot and dry summers in the UK sometimes. There is no evidence that summers get hotter or drier.
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