Essays by Eric Worrall
… But we cannot consider it a violation of the Paris Agreement, because the impact of volcanoes on climate change is natural, not man-made.
Tonga volcano eruption raises risk of temporary 1.5C breach ‘imminent’
January 12, 2023 16:00
AYESHA TANDON…
In total, the study found that the explosion released only 0.42 million tons of cooling sulfur dioxide aerosols into the environment. stratosphere – a layer of atmosphere that begins about 10 km above the Earth’s surface and extends upwards about 40 km. Meanwhile, it expelled a total of 146 million tons of water, increasing the water vapor content in the stratosphere by 10–15%.
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In 2015, the United Nations launched Paris Agreement – an international agreement to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, while also aiming to keep warming below 1.5C. Since then, these temperature thresholds have been an important benchmark for progress in tackling climate change.
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However, it emphasizes that the general explanation of the Paris Agreement are temperature limits that refer to long-term global warming due to anthropogenic effects – not the additional effects of natural climate variability due to events such as mountains caused by the eruption of fire. Therefore, temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold during 2022-2026 due to the volcanic eruption in Tonga will not determine the success or failure of the Paris agreement.
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Read more: https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/
Summary of the study;
Brief communication
Published:Tonga eruption raises possibility of temporary surface temperature anomalies above 1.5 °C
Stuart Jenkins, Chris Smith, Myles Allen & Roy Grainger
abstract
On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) eruption spewed 146 MtH2O and 0.42 MtSO2 into the stratosphere. This large water vapor perturbation means that the HTHH will likely increase the net radiative force, which is unusual for a large volcanic eruption, raising the possibility that the global surface temperature anomaly is temporarily exceeded. 1.5 °C over the next decade. Here, we estimate the radiative response to the HTHH eruption and derive an increased risk that the global mean surface temperature anomaly will soon exceed 1.5°C after the eruption. . We show that the HTHH has a tangible effect on the likelihood that a temperature exceeding 1.5 °C is imminent (increasing the likelihood of at least one in the next 5 years exceeding 1.5 °C by 7%), But the extent of climate policy ambitions, particularly mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants, dominates the outlook for exceeding 1.5°C over a decade’s time.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2
I sincerely hope the 1.5 degree Celsius limit will be breached this year as soon as possible.
It has been a confusing year for climate alarmists, with The hilarious recent attempt to talk about the ongoing global warming coral reef threat in the midst of unprecedented coral mantle. If we also violate 1.5C, let’s say I’m really looking forward to writing that article.
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