Sticking to Finance, Financial Times; The Weather Isn’t Getting Worse – Watts Up With That?

Via Linnea Lueken

A recent article in Financial Times (paywalled) features a discussion between author Attracta Mooney and Celeste Saulo, the current secretary-general of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization. Claims made in the post include that 2023 and 2024 will be the hottest years on record, that recent global wildfires and droughts in parts of the Mediterranean are caused by climate change, and that extreme weather is generally getting worse. These claims are false. The data undermines and often directly contradicts such assertions.

The article is titled “Meteorologist Celeste Saulo: ‘Climate change is not a movie. This is real life’,” is essentially a flowery biography of Saulo, with whom the author sits down for an insultingly lavish French lunch in Geneva, Switzerland, while they discuss how the rest of us need to cut back on our living standards. Mooney begins the piece by discussing how hot it is in Geneva, implying that “nearly 30°C” (86°F) is very hot in August. Quick Search online shows that despite the highs, temperatures are still within Geneva’s normal range for August; highs in the 80s are not unusual for Geneva as summer draws to a close.

Mooney writes “[w]With wildfires raging in Greece and Türkiye, large swaths of the Mediterranean parched as drought spreads across the region, and all just weeks after the world experienced its hottest days on record,” continuing that 2023 “is hottest in record and 2024 is on the go to be warmer.”

Saulo agrees with Mooney’s framing. Mooney goes so far as to report that the UN secretary-general, Saulo’s boss, agrees that “we need to start adapting to a warming world where wildfires, heat waves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events are more intense.”

The problem is that all of this is wrong and as a meteorologist, Saulo should know this.

First, wildfires are certainly not becoming more intense or widespread. Global Forest Fire Monitor Satellites from NASA and the European Space Agency show that the area burned globally has been decreasing, not increasing. (See figure below)

Drought is not a bigger problem either, and the region Mooney chose to highlight, the Mediterranean, is obviously known for its hot, dry summers. The Mediterranean even has a climate type named after it, the “Mediterranean climate,” describe a climate with “irregular rainfall, most of which falls in winter.”

Additionally, the United Nations, where Saulo works, reports with “high confidence” that rainfall has indeed increased in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere at least and has “low confidence” of a negative trend globally, as discussed in Climate at a Glance: Drought.

When it comes to “hottest year on record,” much of the media frenzy is just media hype that lacks any factual basis to back up the claims.

There is a lot of evidence, such as results from carbon dating of trees from the medieval period have recently been exposed by retreating glaciers, indicating that other periods in relatively recent history are taking place. hotter than in Present.

Additionally, many “record-breaking temperature” measurements are simply tenth one degree warmer than previous measurements, which is unlikely to be alarming and could be a statistical anomaly brought about by reanalysis of the data climate model error or the result of the biased urban heat island effect, as discussed in Climate Realism, This, ThisAnd ThisFor example.

The data has also been misused; for example, multiple stories in July 2023 hastily claimed that 3^rank and 4^th July’s hottest days on record are based on a “dataset” that doesn’t actually show measured temperatures or data, but rather simulated temperature simulations. The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer is where this claim comes from. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization publicly distanced itself from the complaint, explaining that the model’s output was “not suitable” for measuring actual temperatures for climate record-keeping purposes.

Is there actually any increasing trend severe weatheras Saulo must know, otherwise why would the only evidence she cites for the claim be “28 disasters” that allegedly occurred in the United States, causing “at least $1 billion in damage each by 2023”. As a writer for Financial TimesMooney certainly knows that the cost of disasters is not necessarily evidence that disasters are getting worse; there are other factors at play, such as rising property values ​​and expansion. bullseye effect. Climate realism has pointed this out many times, including This, ThisAnd This.

The contrast throughout the article between two discussions of climate change and policy, including how people need to change the way they eat and rest, with frequent breaks to discuss their delicious lunch in prosperous Geneva, is an odd writing choice for a journalist trying to emphasize the urgency when it comes to climate action. Financial Times should focus on what they are known for – financial news and analysis – and leave climate hype to other outlets, especially if the purpose of their climate reporting efforts is to uncritically publicize misinformation.