Spring break passengers wait in the TSA security line at Orlando International Airport. Although COVID-19 masks are still required, the number of participants has increased compared to last year.
SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images
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SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images
It’s spring break, and airports are crowded again as air travel numbers are about to return to pre-pandemic levels.
An analysis of Transportation Security Administration Daily Throughput Data shows that an average of more than 2.1 million travelers have passed through airport security checkpoints every day over the past two weeks. That number is only about 9% less than in the same two-week period in 2019.
In fact, those who are traveling now may find it hard to believe that airport terminals are so crowded with long lines at check-in counters and TSA checkpoints that were nearly empty this time two years ago; and The plane is stuck flew with barely any passengers on board.
The majority of people gathered at airports these days are traveling within the country, during vacations. International business and travel, which is more profitable for airlines, is still lagging.
Passengers may shrink at crowded airports, but airline executives are smiling at record revenue
While the return of crowds may cause some passengers to cringe and long for empty plane days, airline executives are still smiling. “Demand (for domestic leisure travel) is higher than ever,” American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said at the JP Morgan Industry Conference on March 15. The CEO is leaving. retiree (his last day is Thursday) told investors that last week the airline industry hit a record one-day high for booked revenue.
“And I can tell you that at American, we not only had our record day, but we also had three of the best, highest days ever,” Parker said. “Two of those are 15% higher than any day we’ve ever had.”
“There’s a huge amount of growth here,” Parker added.
And that claim is generated by booking data from across the industry.
“We’re seeing an overall level of enthusiasm that’s driving bookings, and that’s driving this rebound,” said Vivek Pandya, principal analyst at Adobe Analytics who has tracked flight booking data. achieve new milestones”.
Adobe measured direct consumer transactions from 6 of the top 10 US airlines and over 150 billion web visits and found that US consumers spent $6.6 billion in the month 2 to book flight tickets. Consumer spending was 6% higher than February 2019 and 18% higher than January this year.
Pre-orders start to increase as omicron-induced surge in COVID-19 cases begins to wane
Pandya said bookings really started to pick up as the massive surge in COVID-19 cases caused by the omicron variant during the holidays began to wane. In late January and early February, he said, “we started to see a pretty big increase in bookings, and by the second week of February we saw flight bookings back to pre-pandemic levels. and passing that threshold (above 2019 levels), is a major milestone for us to watch.”
Pandya said the strong increase in travelers booking flights continues, despite rising airfares.
“We’ve seen prices go up now, but it hasn’t really dampened the momentum of air travel,” said Pandya. “What we found was a 26% increase in bookings, followed by a 42% increase in spend on airline and airline bookings, and a 42% increase in revenue over certain periods in 2019.”
Pandya said airlines are seeing strong sales even though bookings for business and international travel are still slowing.
“So what we’re really seeing is a dramatic increase in leisure travel and consumers wanting to go back to the kind of holiday travel they did before the pandemic,” Pandya said. .
Consumers continue to book travel tickets, causing fares to rise while airlines remain limited in capacity
Economist Hayley Berg of the mobile travel app Hopper has noticed a similar trend.
“Demand for both domestic and international air travel is significantly higher this year than in 2021,” Berg said. “We have seen air travel demand steadily increase since January, since the beginning of the year, and it continues through these spring months.”
Berg said consumers are continuing to book flights even as airfares continue to rise, and increased demand, at a time when airlines are still limited in capacity, is part of the reason. cause the price of air tickets to increase.
“But jet fuel prices are also (rising)” are driving up airfares significantly,’ says Berg, noting that between December 1 and March 8, the price per gallon of jet fuel has increased by more than doubled from $1.88 to over $4.10 and fluctuated quite a bit since.
She said higher jet fuel prices will likely continue to push up fares, at a rate of 7 percent per month, during the busy summer travel season. But Berg said with many of the COVID-19 travel restrictions being lifted, people are eager to get out and fly again.
“I would expect that if we continue to see higher prices, we will likely continue to see higher demand, as travelers have been waiting to take some of these bucket list rides,” Berg said. you know, the summer of 2019 and 2020.”
As for travel abroad and especially to Europe, Berg said as the omicron rise in COVID-19 infections subsides and many European destinations have reduced COVID-related travel restrictions, the amount Bookings for international travel surged, but she added those searches and bookings have since dwindled.
“We’ve seen a similar spike in demand to what we’ve been seeing for domestic travel since January, and that has been decreasing since mid-February,” Berg said.
Not coincidentally, that was when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Adobe Analytics’ Vivek Pandya says a protracted war in Ukraine could further delay the stronger return of international travel that airlines need to bolster their profits.
“It is certainly a concern when the kinds of global political situations and war and these factors, these factors are driving decision making, especially about international travel,” said Pandya. ,” said Panda.
