By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A pair of ranked tournaments at Saratoga this weekend—the $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) on Saturday and the $250,000 Bowling Green (G2) on Sunday—could be heavily influenced by speed dynamics.
Let’s take a look at the fields and see what the prospective speed scenarios mean for evaluation:
Jim Dandy (G2)
I was tempted to pick the two year old champion #6 Aggression (9-5) to win the Jim Dandy. On his best day, Fierceness was magnificent. He beat proven Grade 1 winners Muth, Locked and Timberlake by 6 1/4 lengths in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and his record-breaking 13 1/2-length victory in the Florida Derby (G1) was a sight to behold.
But consistency is not Fierceness’s strong suit. He’s prone to slippage, as he did when he finished seventh in the Champagne (G1), third in the Holy Bull (G3) and 15th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He started poorly in all three of those losses, and his acceleration in the Kentucky Derby may not have helped.
The ferocity produced a modest, uncontested pace at the Florida Derby, and if he enjoys a similar ride on Jim Dandy, I’d be confident in his chances of winning. But while Jim Dandy drew a small group of six horses, it was packed with speed. #2 Embrace the Gray (6-1) tied the Preakness (G1) and set the pace in the Belmont (G1), #3 Close tightly (5-1) led throughout the Ohio Derby (G3), and #4 Fast Horse (20-1) won his first start-to-finish at Santa Anita.
A competitive pace seems likely, so I’ll be back. #1 Sierra Leone (1-1), a tried and tested jockey who has never run a bad race. After launching strong attacks to win the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1), the son of Gun Runner has done well in the Triple Crown, finishing second (by a nose) in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third by 1 1/2 lengths in the Belmont (G1).
Both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont are run over 1 1/4 miles, and before the Belmont I argued that the distance might be a little longer than Sierra Leone wanted to run. I was optimistic that cutting back to 1 1/8 miles for Jim Dandy would boost his finishing kick and lead to a win under rider Flavien Prat, a 31% winner in partnership with trainer Chad Brown over the past two months according to Brisnet’s stats.
For small prizes, #5 Gould’s Gold (15-1) is an exciting longshot. He chased Batten Down down every step of the Ohio Derby and closed the gap down the lane to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths. I envision Gould’s Gold finishing at the back of the Jim Dandy pack, perhaps in fifth place, and if the pace is quick he has a chance to clean up the mess and get into the top three.
Bowling Green (G2)
It looks like some honest pace needs to develop at Bowling Green. The 1 3/8-mile grass test has a tried and true leader in the form of #6 Strong Qualitywinner of both the clay and grass events this year. #3 Sugoigate-to-wire winner of the 1 1/2-mile Louisville (G3) on the Churchill Downs turf, also brought speed to the race. Runner-up Louisville #7 Strong Tides The numbers will also be placed in a prominent position.
In my opinion, all this speed is good news for #2 Silver Button. Runner-up in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Silver Knott has a 0-6 record in his three-year-old campaign, although he has placed in four graded events.
Silver Knott has turned things around dramatically since breaking out as a four-year-old. First, he was slow on his way to victory in the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland, where he beat multiple graded winner Missed the Cut by 1 1/2 lengths. Then Silver Knott cut the gap a bit for the 1 3/8-mile Man o’ War (G2) at Aqueduct and opened up a 4 1/2-length lead over a group that included three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Nations Pride.
I was quite impressed with Silver Knott’s Man o’ War performance. The pace was good on a good grass track—:24.09, :48.09 and 1:13.48—and Silver Knott confidently took third place, six lengths clear of the leader, before easily taking control to dominate.
I imagine Silver Knott will do a similar ride at Bowling Green. If the pace is fast, he can settle in and take the lead as the leaders tire. On the other hand, if the pace suddenly slows, Silver Knott can hang on like he did at Elkhorn and still be in control when needed.
For all these reasons, I consider Silver Knott one of the favorites to win this week. #1 Ohana HonorRunner-up in the Man o’ War and most recently third in a strong 1 3/16-mile version of the Manhattan (G1) race, can finish the race exacta.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like this weekend?
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J. Keeler Johnson (aka “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, bookmaker, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of horse racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever bred in America, but considers Zenyatta to be his favorite racehorse of all time.
