Preview of USA women’s basketball semifinal against Australia with chance for eighth straight gold medal

Two global rivals will meet again on Friday, when the U.S. women’s basketball team takes on the Australian Opals for a spot in the gold medal game at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

The U.S., which is riding a 59-game winning streak at the Olympics, advanced to the semifinals with an 88-74 win over Nigeria on Wednesday. After a surprise loss to Nigeria in their opening Olympic game, the Opals have won three straight, including an 85-67 win over Serbia in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

While the U.S. women are the gold standard for basketball worldwide, winning seven consecutive Olympic gold medals and nine overall, Australia has been a historic powerhouse alongside them. The Opals have medaled in five of the past seven Summer Olympics, taking home three silvers and two bronzes, although their semifinal run in Paris marked the first time they have advanced past the quarterfinals since London 2012.

2012 was also the last time the legendary Lauren Jackson appeared on the Olympic stage for the green and gold — until now. While Team USA has the 42-year-old, six-time Olympian Diana TaurasiThe Opals feature Jackson, 43, competing in her fifth Olympics and first in 12 years. Jackson has always medaled in the competition, and although she has only had limited action in France so far, she has a chance to continue that streak this weekend.

Australia — which boasts six active WNBA players — has plenty of momentum, but the Opals are 0-20 all-time against the U.S. senior national team, including 0-8 in Olympic competition. In the five Olympics in which they’ve medaled, Australia has lost to the U.S. in the semifinals or gold medal game. The last time the two teams met was in 2020, when the Americans won 79-55.

ESPN’s Alexa Philippou and Kevin Pelton answer some pressing questions ahead of the game.

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Breanna Stewart credits Jackie Young for kickstarting Team USA

Breanna Stewart chats with Brian Windhorst after Team USA’s 14-point win over Nigeria to advance to the semifinals.

The United States team changed its starting lineup for the match against Nigeria, with Young Jackie replacing Diana Taurasi. Will this move solve the problems at the back?

Philippou: Bringing Young in for Taurasi — who last came off the bench at the 2004 Olympics — was the right move. With 15 points against Nigeria, Young appears to be carving out a role as Team USA’s third-leading scorer behind A’ja Wilson And Breanna Stewart. (Indeed, Young was the only U.S. player to average double digits at 10.3 points per game.) Young, one of three Las Vegas Ace Young, who made the starting five, showed off her 3-point shooting ability earlier against Germany, hitting 5 of 8. But while she didn’t score from distance on Wednesday, it was her ability to get downhill and shoot from midrange that stood out, along with her trademark defensive prowess in the backcourt. It wasn’t until midway through the second quarter that the U.S. really picked up the pace against Nigeria, but Young’s aggression and energy on both ends of the court will continue to pay dividends. And Taurasi seemed to do well off the bench, where she stepped up as a facilitator with four assists.

Pelton: I would love to see the starting point guard. Chelsea Grey is a scoring threat. She missed all three of her shot attempts in the quarterfinals, putting Gray at 1-for-13 so far in the Olympics. Remarkably, the U.S. scored just two more points than Nigeria in Gray’s 17:27, while all four other starters had a plus-minus rating of plus-17 or higher while on the court.

But as I mentioned in the previous roundtable, the U.S. women’s team can get by with a scoreless starting five as long as she brings something else to the table. And Gray is in form, now with 22 assists to just three turnovers. So I don’t think coach Cheryl Reeve needs to make any more changes.

What problems do the Australian team cause and what could make them a tough opponent?

Philippou: WNBA fans will be familiar with this Opals team, featuring Seattle Storm‘S Ezi Magbegor And Sami Whitcomb, Minnesota bobcat‘S Alanna Smith, Los Angeles Sparks‘ Stephanie Talbot, Washington Mystics‘ Melbourne Pearl And Indiana Fever‘S Kristy Wallaceplus New York Freedom Coach Sandy Brondello is at the helm. The Opals not only have the talent to compete with Team USA. They also have the drive and determination after a disappointing start to the Games. Brondello has been pleased with his team’s composure and resilience over the past week, two qualities opponents will need to have when facing Team USA.

The Opals, with a balanced offense that boasts five players averaging at least 8.0 PPG, can hurt opponents inside with Magbegor and Smith but also from the 3-point arc. Their 36.9% 3-point percentage is the best in the Olympic field and well above Team USA’s meager 30.8%. Whitcomb and Cayla George, the 2023 WNBA champion while with Las Vegas Aceled the team with eight and seven three-pointers, respectively.

Pelton: On paper, Australia is deeper and more talented than any team in the field except the U.S. women’s team. We could argue for the best international player at the Paris Olympics, with Belgium’s Emma Meesseman and Satou Sabally (Germany) are strong contenders. But no team has a pair of players as good as the Opals’ forwards Magbegor and Smith, both of whom were on my WNBA All-Star team this year. (Magbegor, a 2023 All-Star, was not selected to the team this season despite similar accomplishments.) And no team outside the United States has as much WNBA experience on its entire roster.

With all that talent, it was a shock that Australia lost their opening game to Nigeria and then narrowly missed out on a win over Canada. In their previous two games, we saw the Opals we’d hoped for, beating top-ranked France to reach the knockout stages and then sweeping Serbia by 28 points in a dominant quarter-final win.

A’Ja passes three balls to Stewie. 🎯

LeBron approves.

📺 USA Network and Peacock pic.twitter.com/yI8kbWNUps

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 7, 2024

Can anyone stop Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson?

Pelton: No. But if anyone is going to stop them, it’s the Magbegor-Smith pairing. The Australian post players rank second (Magbegor, 2.4) and fourth (Smith, 1.8) in the WNBA in blocks per game and have the mobility to defend Stewart and Wilson on the perimeter. Magbegor, in particular, has experience against both, having faced Stewart in practice for three years as a Storm teammate and playing Wilson in the 2022 WNBA semifinals.

The biggest hurdle for Magbegor and Smith is foul trouble. Magbegor picked up three fouls in the first half against Canada, and Smith picked up two in the first half against France, limiting their playing time. Reserve George is a tough, skilled player (she scored 18 points in 24 minutes against Serbia) but isn’t as good defensively.

Philippou: Pelton raises a valid concern. But given the experience Stewart and Wilson have at this stage — Stewart is aiming for his third Olympic gold medal and Wilson his second, while Magbegor and Smith are playing in their first Olympics — I expect Team USA’s superstar duo to make the necessary plays in such a high-pressure situation to advance to the final.

Which team between France and Belgium will be a more formidable opponent for the United States team?

Pelton: I’ll go with Belgium, who gave the U.S. women’s team their toughest Olympic test yet. The Americans won by 13 points, despite trailing by just seven points entering the fourth quarter of their group-stage game in Lille, France, near the Belgian border. All this despite Belgium making just 5 of 27 3-pointers, with Julie Vanloo especially struggled from downtown while missing 10 of her 11 attempts. On Wednesday, the Mystics point guard made 3 of 5 3-pointers, scoring 13 points with seven assists (despite nine turnovers) as Belgium cruised past Spain, the only team other than the U.S. to remain unbeaten in group play.

Philippou: As hosts, with a roaring crowd and huge pride, a tough defensive team like France is no easy opponent either, especially if Marine Johannes can play like she did against Germany with 24 points off the bench and with Gabby Williams leading the way on both ends of the court.

Has the US team played its best basketball yet?

Philippou: Consistency in play, especially on offense, can still be an issue. There are times when the lack of playtime together or Reeve tweaking rotations/combinations is still evident. After all, there’s a reason why Sue Bird recently said on Carmelo Anthony’s podcast that USA Basketball was the most frustrating game she’s ever played. After a slow start, the U.S. eventually built a 30-point lead in the third quarter against Nigeria, but Reeve couldn’t help but like how her team allowed D’Tigress to turn it into a 14-point game by the buzzer. In four games, the Americans’ lack of 3-point shooting hasn’t really been fixed, which could be a problem if opponents heat up from deep.

The USA cannot afford to ignore any of the remaining teams in the tournament, but with their defensive identity and offensive prowess led by Stewart and Wilson, the team has proven they can win when needed, which will continue in the final two games.

Pelton: On the other hand, I think the shooting is also reason to believe there’s another gear for the U.S. women. In total, the 12 players on the roster have combined to shoot 33 percent of their 3-point attempts in the WNBA this season. That won’t earn them the nickname “Splash Sisters” anytime soon, but it’s better than what Team USA has done from the shorter 3-point line in FIBA ​​play.

Taurasi (1 of 7) and Jewell Lloyd (2 out of 10) are overdue for a long range warm up. Watch to see if they eventually do.